Arsenal remains favored to win the 2026-27 Premier League despite transfer target Morgan Rogers joining Chelsea in a historic £117 million ($156.5 million) deal.
Rogers had been widely expected to be en route to Arsenal, which won the Premier League last season with 85 points, seven clear of second-place Manchester City.
Key Takeaways
- Rogers, a starter for England at the World Cup, won the last PFA Young Player of the Year award.
- Arsenal still has a 40.8% implied chance of winning the Premier League.
- Chelsea, for whom Rogers signed, is fifth in odds at +1,000.
Arsenal made a strong case to be considered the best team in Europe last season, winning the continent’s most competitive domestic league by more than two games’ worth of points and losing in penalty kicks in the Champions League final.
The Gunners' new season will begin when they take on newly promoted Coventry City on Aug. 21, and FanDuel installed Arsenal as a strong +145 favorite to win the title. That translates to a 40.8% implied chance, by far the highest of any team.
Manchester City, last season's runner-up, is +280 (26.3% chance) ahead of its first season without Pep Guardiola in the dugout since 2016. Liverpool, the only other team to win a league title since 2017, is +500 (16.7% chance), and Manchester United, the country’s most popular team, is +600 (14.3% chance).
The intrigue arrives with the oddsmakers’ fifth-place selection, Chelsea. The Blues finished 12th, sixth, fourth, and 10th across the last four campaigns yet are +1,000 (9.1% chance) in Premier League odds.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google accountMore notably, Rogers’ signing has not moved Chelsea’s title odds. Most sportsbooks opened the Blues around +1,000, suggesting oddsmakers are valuing the team’s expected production more than the record price tag ahead of manager Xabi Alonso’s first season in West London.
Out of the blue, to the Blues
Multiple outlets reported that Rogers was Arsenal’s top priority after its first Premier League title since 2004. There was a general belief that the 23-year-old player - who registered 14 goals and 11 assists across all competitions last year - was ready to accept the challenge of playing in the Champions League for the titleholders. His decision to join Chelsea was therefore even more surprising, as the club has no European competition on its schedule.
The £117 million ($156.5 million) is a transfer record for a British player and is the second-largest sum ever paid by a Premier League club. The deal was reached over the 48 hours immediately following England’s loss to Argentina in the World Cup semifinal Aug. 15.
Liverpool still holds the league record with the £125 million ($167.1 million) it paid for ex-Newcastle striker Alexander Isak.
More odds
Rogers’ former team, Aston Villa, is sixth in odds after its fourth-place finish last year. The club’s +2,200 odds carry a 4.4% implied chance, less than half of Chelsea’s +1,000 and about one-tenth of Arsenal’s +145.
The title odds for the remaining teams are as follows:
- Tottenham: +2,500
- Newcastle: +10,000
- Brighton: +20,000
- Everton: +22,500
- Bournemouth: +22,500
- Brentford: +35,000
- Crystal Palace: +40,000
- Sunderland: +40,000
- Hull City: +40,000
- Coventry City: +40,000
- Ipswich Town: +40,000
- Leeds United: +40,000
- Fulham: +40,000
- Nottingham Forest: +40,000
New era begins
Guardiola’s departure from Manchester has left a void. The Citizens had created a dynasty during his tenure, but Arsenal’s ascension to the top of the league was a sign of changing times.
No team not named Man City has won consecutive titles since Manchester United did in 2007-08 and 2008-09. Oddsmakers like Arsenal’s chances, although massive player and managerial changes across the league, combined with increasing competition, make a repeat title anything but assured.
