Las Vegas Aces superstar A’Ja Wilson is a runaway favorite to win WNBA Finals MVP after knocking Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever out of the playoffs.
Wilson has a leading 56% chance of winning Finals MVP, according to Kalshi’s real-time prediction market data as of Friday morning.
- Wilson gained a 39% probability of winning the award after the Aces’ win.
- Breanna Stewart has the second-best chance at 19%.
- The Aces are favored to win their fourth title in five years.
Kalshi’s WNBA prediction market traders have extreme confidence in Wilson adding a third Finals MVP trophy to her collection. Her expected probability exploded from 17% before tip-off in Thursday night’s series-deciding matchup with the Fever to the current value of 56%, which is 37% higher than the next-closest candidate.
Wilson was excellent in the series and in Game 3. She posted 36 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks on 61.1% shooting, giving her season averages of 32 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks on a 64.6% clip from the field.
A’JA WILSON TONIGHT:
— Women’s Hoops Network (@WomensHoops_USA) October 2, 2026
• 36 POINTS
• 10 REBOUNDS
• 2 BLOCKS
• 11/18 FG
• 2/3 3PM
• 37 MINUTES PLAYED pic.twitter.com/XoirwH0N5A
Kalshi users believe that Wilson’s stiffest competition will come from New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart, a three-time champion and two-time Finals MVP in her own right.
Stewart averaged 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.0 blocks in two playoff games to help get them into the playoff semifinals.
Golden State Valkyries forward Gabby Williams is third in chances of winning the WNBA Finals MVP at 16%. The defensive ace had a career year offensively in 2026, although her team has to win a best-of-one against the Dallas Wings to secure the final spot in the Conference Finals.
Other candidates for Finals MVP include Atlanta Dream forward Angel Reese (12%), Dream guard Alisha Gray (12%), and Aces guard Jackie Young (9%).
Confidence in Wilson
There are six active players who have won Finals MVP: Stewart, Wilson, Gray, Jonquel Jones, Kahleah Cooper and Emma Meesseman. But despite the competition for the award and the games that must still be played before the Finals even begin, prediction markets are confident in Wilson’s prospects.
Wilson is no stranger to winning titles — or honors.
After winning an NCAA championship, the Naismith Award, and a slew of other accolades at South Carolina, she managed to win four league MVPs and three championships during her eight-year career. She was also given the Finals MVP trophy for two of her three wins (2023 and 2025).
Her lone title-winning season, during which she didn’t receive the Finals MVP trophy, was in 2022. Chelsea Gray, who is still on the Aces’ roster, was named the most outstanding player in the series.
A major reason that Wilson is the frontrunner for the Finals MVP is that the Aces are the most popular pick to win the championships.
Kalshi’s WNBA prediction markets have the Aces at 38% after they’d only been at 21% lead up to tip-off on Thursday, giving them a 10% cushion on the rest of the league. The Atlanta Dream are next up at 28%, followed by the Liberty (19%), Valkyries (18%) and Wings (2%).
Nearly $7.2 million was traded across Kalshi’s WNBA Finals and WNBA Finals MVP prediction markets.
