Churchill Downs is bracing for record-breaking wagers on the “Run for the Roses,” a welcome boost for a sport that’s weathered plenty of storms. But let's not let the fillies get lost in this year’s shuffle.
For those new to horse racing’s biggest weekend, here’s the scoop: the day before the Derby, the best three-year-old female horses, — “fillies” in horse-speak — compete in the Kentucky Oaks, often billed as the “Run for the Lilies.”
The 6-5 morning line favorite, Good Cheer, is widely touted as a “lock.” But my 2025 Kentucky Oaks predictions believe this race is far more wide open than most suspect. In fact, I believe the wrong horse is favored.
So, if you’re looking for free betting picks, let me explain why Mark Casse & Co. could pull off the rare and impressive Oaks-Derby double.
Kentucky Oaks prediction, odds, and best bet
- Race: Churchill Race 11
- Date: Friday, May 3, 2025
- Post time: 5:51 p.m. ET
- TV: USA
| Post | Horse |  * |
 ** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Good Cheer | +120 | 6-5 | +120 |
| 7 | La Cara | +600 | 6-1 | +600 |
| 14 | Quietside | +800 | 8-1 | +800 |
| 2 | Simply Joking | +1000 | 10-1 | +1000 |
| 6 | Ballerina d'Oro | +1000 | 10-1 | +1000 |
| 9 | Tenma | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 10 | Take Charge Milady | +1200 | 12-1 | +1200 |
| 3 | Fondly | +2000 | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 1 | Early On | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 4 | Drexel Hill | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 5 | Quickick | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 12 | Anna's Promise | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 13 | Bless the Broken | +3000 | 30-1 | +3000 |
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**bet365 Kentucky Derby odds are not available in the United States
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Kentucky Oaks best bet: La Cara to win
As they say, “Come heavy or don't come at all.” So, here's my two cents: La Cara should honestly be the favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Oaks.
She just posted a career-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, wiring the field and stopping the clock at 1:43.21 for 1 1/16 miles, quicker than the older males managed on the same card.
Her speed figures have jumped from 93 in February to 102 in March, and now 105 in April. There’s no denying La Cara’s trainer Mark Casse has her peaking at exactly the right time, much like his Derby hopeful Sandman.
She’s also proven at Churchill Downs, winning the Pocahontas Stakes last fall with a solid 1:44.80 for the same distance.
Her recent :58.80 bullet workout over five furlongs at Churchill screams to me that she’s sharp and ready. For context, that’s fast for a filly. It's almost like a wide-open Luka Doncic yelling across the court to Austin Reaves, “Get me the goshdang ball.” She's ready to roll.
Now, let’s talk about Good Cheer. She’s undefeated in six starts and has three wins at Churchill, but her top Equibase figure is a 102 from the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2). She’s yet to win at the Grade 1 level and has mostly faced softer fields. #SorryNotSorry
Good Cheer’s stalking style could also be a problem if the early fractions heat up and she gets caught wide from post 11. La Cara, by contrast, has shown she can either press the pace or sit just off it, which is a big tactical advantage in a large field with a likely hot pace.
If you care about this sort of thing, she’s also bred to handle the Oaks distance, being by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare. That’s like if LeBron James and Serena Williams had a baby.
As it sits right now, La Cara has the fastest figures, the best recent form, and the versatility to handle whatever pace scenario unfolds. If her 6-1 morning line odds hold or improve in the parimutuel betting, she’s a much sharper play than the overhyped (and most likely short-priced) favorite.
Best bet: $20 win 7 (+600 at FanDuel Racing)
Kentucky Oaks field analysis
No. 1 Early On (30-1)
Runner-up in the Gazelle (G3), Early On has shown stamina but lacks the speed figures of the main contenders. She’s consistent and could pick up pieces late, but she’s yet to prove she can beat top-level rivals like Good Cheer or La Cara.
No. 2 Simply Joking (10-1)
Second in the Fantasy (G2), Simply Joking has tactical speed and has been reliable in graded company. She’s competitive but has been second-best to stronger closers like Quietside, making her more of an exotics candidate than a win threat.
No. 3 Fondly (30-1)
Winner of the Virginia Oaks, Fondly steps up in class and faces tougher competition here. She’s shown ability on turf but hasn’t yet run fast enough on dirt to match the favorites, making her a longshot.
No. 4 Drexel Hill (30-1)
Busher winner Drexel Hill has some upside, but her speed figures are below the top tier. She’s lightly raced and could improve, but she’s yet to face a field this deep and will need a big jump to contend.
No. 5 Quickick (30-1)
Fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Quickick has struggled to make an impact against top company. She’s consistent but lacks the late punch and speed of Good Cheer or Quietside.
No. 6 Ballerina d’Oro (10-1)
Impressive winner of the Gazelle (G3), Ballerina d’Oro is trending upward with improving speed figures. She’s versatile and could capitalize if the pace is hot, but she faces tougher, more accomplished rivals like Good Cheer and La Cara.
No. 7 La Cara (6-1)
Ashland (G1) winner La Cara is one of the most proven in the field, with tactical speed and the class to contend. She’s a major threat if she can work out a trip, but faces pace pressure from other speedy fillies like Five G and Tenma.
No. 8 Five G (12-1)
Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) winner Five G is fast and improving, but has done her best work on the lead. With other speed present, she may face a tougher trip and will need to prove she can withstand pace pressure.
No. 9 Tenma (12-1)
Santa Anita Oaks (G2) winner Tenma comes in sharp and has a versatile running style. She’s competitive with the best here, but her West Coast form will be tested against deeper company in Kentucky.
No, 10 Take Charge Milady (12-1)
Runner-up in the Ashland (G1), Take Charge Milady is consistent and has been right behind La Cara. She’s a solid exotics contender but has yet to show the brilliance of the top two or three in this field.
No. 11 Good Cheer (6-5, morning-line favorite)
Undefeated and dominant in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Good Cheer has the highest rating in the field and a versatile running style. She’s handled several of these before and is the clear one to beat, with only a pace meltdown or significant improvement from others likely to threaten her.
No. 12 Anna’s Promise (30-1)
Second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), Anna’s Promise is consistent but has yet to break through at the graded level. She’s a deep closer who will need a fast pace and significant improvement to contend.
No. 13 Bless the Broken (30-1)
The Bourbonette Oaks winner, Bless the Broken has shown ability on synthetic but faces a much tougher dirt field. She’s a longshot who would need to improve dramatically to be a factor.
No. 14 Quietside (8-1)
Fantasy (G2) winner Quietside is peaking at the right time with a strong late kick. She’s one of the best closers in the field and could capitalize if the pace is fast, making her a legitimate upset candidate behind Good Cheer and La Cara.
