The 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby came up challenging for handicappers and bettors. The race has a definitive favorite, but a serious case can be made for at least 20% of the 19-horse field.
Let’s examine the top win contenders and a few horses to include in exotic wagers.
Below, we’ll provide wagers on the Kentucky Derby odds and build a $3 All 3-Year-Old Pick 3 wager.
Kentucky Derby winner picks
Angel of Empire (8-1)
He came on with a pair of strong performances in his final two preps, winning the Risen Star (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1), and it was easy to appreciate the turn-of-foot he displayed on the far turn of the latter. Angel of Empire appears to be moving forward, and he’s trained nicely in preparation for trainer Brad Cox. There’s a lot to like about the imposing late runner.
Verifying (15-1)
A son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Verifying rates as intriguing because of his speed and improving form. The well-built colt has always been highly regarded, and he stepped forth with a big effort in the Blue Grass (G1) in early April, finishing a neck second to Tapit Trice. The inside post takes away options from jockey Tyler Gaffalione, and Verifying will be aiming for the lead when the gates open.
Tapit Trice (5-1)
Winner of the Blue Grass and Tampa Bay Derby (G3), Tapit Trice brings a favorable pattern to the Kentucky Derby, and he figures to be finishing fast in the stretch. Slow starts have been an issue, which makes Post 5 potentially unfavorable, but the Todd Pletcher-trained colt may be good enough to overcome all obstacles.
Forte (OTB)
Forte was a 3-1 favorite leading up to the race before being scratched on the morning of the Kentucky Derby. Details are still emerging about the condition of the champion two-year-old male, but his absence has already had a profound impact on Kentucky Derby odds.
More Kentucky Derby Picks
To hit the board picks
Derma Sotogake (10-1)
Derma Sotogake exits a fast win in the UAE Derby (G2), and the Japanese invader is one of the most experienced members of the field with eight career starts. The Japanese are starting to make a major impact worldwide, winning a pair of Breeders’ Cup races in 2021, and Derma Sotogake may have the talent to become first Japanese-bred horse to win the Kentucky Derby.
Rocket Can (30-1)
Runner-up to Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Rocket Can didn’t fire when fourth in the Arkansas Derby, and trainer Bill Mott will add blinkers to keep his charge focused. The gray appears to be training well in preparation, and he’s a candidate to rebound if able to work out a favorable trip.
Mandarin Hero (20-1)
The Japan-based runner has the benefit of a strong U.S. prep, recording a nose second in the Santa Anita Derby, and his ability to overcome adversity figures to serve him well in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.
Disarm (30-1)
Disarm may have only a maiden win to his credit, but he merits consideration based on how he’s training at Churchill Downs. The bright chestnut packs a solid finishing kick and appears to be peaking for Steve Asmussen, setting the stage for Disarm to run the best race of his career.
Kentucky Derby plays*
Win & place
$20 win, place:
- No. 14 Angel of Empire
- Cost: $40
Exacta
$5 exacta:
- To win: No. 14 Angel of Empire
- Second place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 15 Forte
- Cost: $15
Trifecta
50-cent trifecta:
- To win: No. 14 Angel of Empire
- Second place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Third place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 11 Disarm, No. 15 Forte, No. 18 Rocket Can, No. 22 Mandarin Hero
- Cost: $5
Superfecta
$1 superfecta:
- To win: No. 14 Angel of Empire
- Second place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice
- Third place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 15 Forte, No. 18 Rocket Can
- Fourth place: No. 2 Verifying, No. 5 Tapit Trice, No. 11 Disarm, No. 15 Forte, No. 17 Derma Sotogake, No. 18 Rocket Can
- Cost: $24
*Please note that all picks were made prior to Forte being scratched.
$3 All 3-Year-Old Pick 3
Featuring a $3 minimum, the All 3-Year-Old Pick 3 wager was unveiled in 2022, and Races 8, 9, and 12 make up the challenging sequence this year.
Race 8: Pat Day Mile (G3), 1 mile
General Jim makes his first start since an impressive stakes win at Gulfstream Park in early February, and the up-and-comer rates top billing. His tactical speed should ensure a favorable trip, and we’ll use the speedy No. 1 Kangaroo Court and stakes-winning miler No. 3 Lugan Knight as savers.
Pick: General Jim (No. 9)
Race 9: American Turf (G2), 1 1/16 miles on turf
An outstanding field of turf milers will head to the starting gate. Talk of the Nation looks like a star in the making for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, recording an outstanding victory in the Columbia S. in mid-March. He’ll be finishing from just off the pace with nine-time leading Churchill Downs jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
No. 1 Major Dude couldn’t make the Kentucky Derby field after coming up short on qualifying points, and the classy turf runner can’t be dismissed from win contention in this spot. He’ll be added to the ticket.
Pick: Talk of the Nation (No. 4)
Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1), 1 1/4 miles
The Kentucky Derby serves as the final leg, and we’ll use out top two selections, No. 14 Angel of Empire and No. 2 Verifying.
Pick: Angel of Empire (No. 14)
All 3-Year-Old Pick 3 play:
- $3 Pick 3 ticket: 1,3,9/1,4/2,14 ($36)
Good luck!
Where to bet on the Kentucky Derby?
Not sure where or how to place your bet? No problem. We've listed the best Kentucky Derby betting sites around and what regions they are legal in. These sites are secure and trusted sportsbooks and horse racing betting sites. And make sure to check out our guide on pari-mutuel betting before placing your wager.
