Aspiring Breeders' Cup Turf runners will test their mettle in two of the biggest stakes races in the country this Saturday, August 9.
First up, a field of nine will do battle in the Grade I, $750,000 Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga, with the winner earning an automatic berth to the $5 million Turf on November 1. Mere moments later, eight runners will dispute the esteemed Grade I Arlington Million at Colonial Downs.
You won't want to miss my Breeders’ Cup odds analysis and free betting picks for these races.
Sword Dancer Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Saratoga Race 10
- Post time: 5:44 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Cordobes | 4-1 | +400 | +700 |
| 2 | Rebel Red | 8-1 | +800 | +1400 |
| 3 | Vote No | 15-1 | +1500 | +1600 |
| 4 | Padiddle | 30-1 | +3000 | +2500 |
| 5 | Nations Pride | 3-1 | +300 | +275 |
| 6 | Far Bridge | 9-5 | +180 | +225 |
| 7 | El Rezeen | 15-1 | +1500 | +650 |
| 8 | Grand Sonata | 10-1 | +1000 | +1800 |
| 9 | Utah Beach | 8-1 | +800 | +800 |
Odds as of 8-9.
For what it's worth, Grand Sonata was entered in both the Sword Dancer and the Arlington Million, and trainer Todd Pletcher has not tipped his hand as to where the son of Medaglia d'Oro will run. Regardless, he will not be my top pick in the Sword Dancer.
No. 1 El Cordobes (4-1) is the longer-priced of two runners sent out by trainer Charlie Appleby here, the other being No. 5 Nations Pride (3-1), who carries more name value in the States as an MGSW on this side of the pond. While Nations Pride brings inconsistent form to the table, El Cordobes has run only one bad race this year, finishing third in a four-horse field going 1 3/4-miles.
His other three races have all come going 1 1/2-miles, the same distance as the Sword Dancer. He won a Class II Handicap to kick off his 2025 campaign before placing third in a Group III. Last time out, he took the Group I Prince of Wales' at Newmarket.
That latest effort came vs. just three rivals, but in all of his 1 1/2-mile efforts this year, he both ran speed figures that rival the best ever run by this bunch and carried 4-10 pounds more weight than he'll tote today under Flavien Prat.
No. 6 Far Bridge (9-5, morning-line favorite) is the most logical alternative to El Cordobes as the defending champion of this race. Still, rather than get clever and chase exactas or trifectas, I'll stick with a simple win/place wager and hope to hit both when El Cordobes crosses the wire first.
Best bet: $10 win/place 1 ($20)
New Users
$500 No Sweat First Bet! Claim Now
See FanDuel T&Cs
FanDuel Racing offer available only in AR, CA, DE, ID, FL, MN, MT, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, WA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
New Users
Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets! Claim Now
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Arlington Million odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Colonial Downs Race 11
- Post time: 5:54 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mystik Dan | 9-2 | +450 | +350 |
| 2 | Time Song | 30-1 | +3000 | +5000 |
| 3 | Vesting | 12-1 | +1200 | +2500 |
| 4 | Runaway Storm | 20-1 | +2000 | +3300 |
| 5 | Cairo | 7-2 | +350 | +333 |
| 6 | Fort Washington | 4-1 | +400 | +750 |
| 7 | Grand Sonata | 8-1 | +800 | +850 |
| 8 | Integration | 8-5 | +160 | +150 |
Odds as of 8-9.
The most fascinating story in the Arlington Million is No. 1 Mystik Dan (9-2), who makes his turf debut, but neither his pedigree nor his recent turf work suggests he'll relish the grass. I'm also against No. 8 Integration as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, as he's won just one of his last seven races.
I landed on No. 6 Fort Washington at 4-1, and I believe we'll get at least that price, if not higher, on Saturday afternoon. He was last seen closing to be a narrowly beaten fourth in the Grade II Wise Dan Stakes, which featured a crawling pace.
Fort Washington has a quartet of runners drawn to his inside that could all want the lead, namely Time Song, Vesting, Runaway Storm, and Cairo. If at least two of them mix it up, the dual Grade III winner in 2025 could be heard from late under Junior Alvarado.
No. 5 Cairo (7-2) is the only other horse I'm interested in backing.
While he's been held without a win in 16 straight starts, he's getting effective class relief following his third-place finish in the Group I Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Cairo has completed the exacta in four of his last eight starts, three coming at the Group level, and gets local sharpie Ben Curtis (25% at the Colonial meet) in the irons.
Best bet: $10 win 6, $5 exacta box 5/6 ($20)
Road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Cup* | February 22 | King Abdulaziz Racetrack | Forever Young |
| February Stakes* | February 23 | Tokyo | Costa Nova |
| Dubai World Cup* | April 5 | Meydan | Hit Show |
| Kentucky Derby | May 3 | Churchill Downs | Sovereignty |
| Preakness Stakes | May 17 | Pimlico | Journalism |
| Belmont Stakes | June 7 | Saratoga | Sovereignty |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 7 | Saratoga | Raging Torrent |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | June 28 | Churchill Downs | Mindframe |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 19 | Monmouth Park | Journalism |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 2 | Saratoga | Sierra Leone |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 20 | York | TBD |
| Travers Stakes | August 24 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pacific Classic* | August 30 | Del Mar | TBD |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | August 31 | Saratoga | TBD |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 20 | Parx | TBD |
| Goodwood Stakes* | September 27 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Lukas Classic | September 27 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
