The Breeders Cup odds could be shifting this Saturday following the latest installments of the Pennsylvania Derby and the Cotillion Stakes, two Grade I races for three-year-old runners at Parx.
Will Reincarnate or Saudi Crown bolster their resumes ahead of the Breeders' Cup Classic, or will a new face climb the divisional ranks with an upset score in the Pennsylvania Derby? And can Pretty Mischievous make it four straight Grade I triumphs in the Cotillion, or will one of her eight rivals snap her winning streak?
Let's start answering those questions with my horse racing picks and predictions for Saturday afternoon at Parx.
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Pennsylvania Derby odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Parx Race 13
- Post time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modern Era | 50-1 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +10,000 |
| 2 | Dreamlike | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,200 |
| 3 | Saudi Crown | 7-2 | +350 | +350 | +187 |
| 4 | Magic Tap | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +700 |
| 5 | Scotland | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +800 |
| 6 | Daydreaming Boy | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| 7 | West Coast Cowboy | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| 8 | Gilmore | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +900 |
| 9 | Crupi | 15-1 | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,600 |
| 10 | Il Miracolo | 8-1 | +800 | +800 | +1,200 |
| 11 | Reincarnate | 3-1 | +300 | +300 | +400 |
Odds as of September 21, 2023.
No. 3 Saudi Crown (7-2) is a pair of noses away from being undefeated in his brief four-start career, and the speed figures he earned in his two route tries tower above the competition. I would be very surprised if this Brad Cox trainee is not favored come post time, especially following the post draw, as main rival Reincarnate was slammed with the far outside draw.
Also of note is that Saudi Crown ran a huge last-out second to Forte in the Grade II Jim Dandy on a sloppy track, and there's plenty of precipitation in the forecast at Parx this Saturday.
Saudi Crown is training forwardly for the Pennsylvania Derby and retains Cox's first-call jockey in Florent Geroux.
No. 4 Magic Tap (5-1) could make his stakes debut a winning one if all goes well.
He was last seen beating a next-out winner going a testing 1 1/8-miles at Saratoga. Trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Tyler Gaffalione team up once again with the speedy son of Tapit.
No. 11 Reincarnate (3-1, morning-line favorite) bounced back from a 13th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby with a gate-to-wire triumph in the Los Alamitos Derby on July 8. Bob Baffert has put some stamina-building drills into this son of Good Magic ahead of the Pennsylvania Derby.
Look for pilot Juan Hernandez to employ Reincarnate's natural early speed in an attempt to avoid getting caught wide from this post.
Best bet: $2 exacta box 3/4/11, $4 exacta 3/4,11 ($20)
Cotillion Stakes odds, prediction and best bet
- Race: Parx Race 12
- Post time: 5:20 p.m. ET
- TV: FanDuel TV
| Post | Horse | Track odds | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Foggy Night | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +2,000 |
| 2 | Ceiling Crusher | 5-1 | +500 | +500 | +450 |
| 3 | Pretty Mischievous | 2-1 | +200 | +200 | +137 |
| 4 | Hoosier Philly | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +900 |
| 5 | Occult | 6-1 | +600 | +600 | +550 |
| 6 | Just Katherine | 12-1 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,100 |
| 7 | Defining Purpose | 4-1 | +400 | +400 | +650 |
| 8 | Imonra | 10-1 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +2,000 |
| 9 | Majestic Creed | 30-1 | +3,000 | +3,000 | +5,000 |
Odds as of September 21, 2023.
If anyone can knock Pretty Mischievous off her perch in the three-year-old filly division, it's No. 5 Occult (6-1) in Saturday's Cotillion.
Occult has three wins from six lifetime starts, and all were runaway triumphs. She was last seen winning the Grade III Molly Pitcher at Monmouth by 10 lengths.
Earlier this year, Occult crushed a pair of fields at Aqueduct, both times over tracks listed as "good," so she shouldn't mind the potential moisture in the Parx main oval. It's encouraging to see jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. taking over in the saddle for trainer Chad Brown.
No. 3 Pretty Mischievous (2-1, morning-line favorite) hasn't won her last three starts by much (neck, head, head), but she's reeled off three Grade Is nonetheless. The daughter of Into Mischief has never missed the trifecta in nine lifetime tries (9: 7-1-1) and holds an imposing 5: 3-1-1 record at this 1 1/16th-mile trip.
Gaffalione retains the assignment for Brendan Walsh.
Best bet: $10 exacta box 3/5 ($20)
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Road to the Breeders' Cup Classic Schedule
| Race | Date | Track | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| February Stakes* | February 19 | Tokyo Racecourse (Japan) | Lemon Pop |
| Kentucky Derby | May 6 | Churchill Downs | Mage |
| Preakness Stakes | May 20 | Pimlico | National Treasure |
| Belmont Stakes | June 10 | Belmont Park | Arcangelo |
| Metropolitan Handicap | June 10 | Belmont Park | Cody's Wish |
| Stephen Foster Stakes* | July 1 | Ellis Park | West Will Power |
| Haskell Stakes* | July 22 | Monmouth Park | Geaux Rocket Ride |
| Whitney Stakes* | August 5 | Saratoga | White Abarrio |
| Juddmonte International Stakes (turf)* | August 23 | York (UK) | Mostahdaf |
| Travers Stakes | August 26 | Saratoga | Arcangelo |
| Pacific Classic* | September 2 | Del Mar | Arabian Knight |
| Jockey Club Gold Cup* | September 2 | Saratoga | Bright Future |
| Pennsylvania Derby | September 23 | Parx | TBD |
| Awesome Again Stakes* | September 30 | Santa Anita Park | TBD |
| Lukas Classic | September 30 | Churchill Downs | TBD |
*denotes "Win & You're In" race for Breeders' Cup Classic
