Masters 2024 Picks & Predictions: Outrights and Matchup Best Bets

Get our best golf picks and PGA predictions for the Masters 2024. The PGA Tour arrives at Augusta National on April 11-14.

Apr 13, 2024 • 20:55 ET • 3 min read
Brooks Koepka The Masters
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 Masters is the first major event of the golf season, and because of that prowess and prestige, it’s also the most heavily bet tournament of the year.

Sportsbooks roll out a long list of Masters odds to meet that demand, from outright winners to matchups to player and tournament props, and we dive into it all, providing the best value golf odds, live long shots, and more free golf picks.

Masters picks and predictions for 2024

We have picks for the outright winner, matchup bets, and novelty Masters props made before the tournament — and then we will add additional plays following each round of action. We'll collect all the picks and best bets right here on this page — check back each day for our best golf bets for Augusta National.

Pre-tournament outright picks

  • Xander Schauffele (+1,600 at DraftKings)

I’m not breaking news by propping up Xander Schauffle’s game. He’s a course fit here at Augusta but he’s a course fit just about anywhere he plays.

With that said, his stellar all-around game and elite ball-striking play particularly well here at Augusta. He’s second in total strokes gained this season but more specifically ranks seventh in GIR% — maybe the most important data point of the week. 

That’s manifested itself in T2, T3, and T10 finishes over his last five Masters starts and while elite putting is far from a requirement, Xander has room to grow considering his putter’s been just average over his last three tries.
-Covers publishing editor Chris Gregory

  • Brooks Koepka (+2,000 at DraftKings)

With Koepka already trading as short as +1,400 through Caesars, time is running out to land an inflated number for the major championship ATM. Rewind a year, and he took down the LIV Orlando event and then parlayed it into a 54-hole lead at Augusta National that ultimately resulted in a T2 finish at the 2023 Masters.

It’s also particularly encouraging that he finished second in true strokes gained on approaches, ninth in true strokes gained tee-to-green, and fourth in true strokes gained putting in last year’s event.

Koepka’s Masters resume also includes a T2 finish in 2019 and another pair of Top-15 results. Add his additional 12 Top 5 results in major championships, and I’m as confident in Koepka playing well at Augusta as he is in himself.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

  • Viktor Hovland (+3,500 at DraftKings)

The world-class ball-striker skipped the Texas swing to focus solely on conquering Augusta National this week, and if his tee game and approach play are in top form, it’ll mitigate potential chipping woes.

Let’s not forget: the reigning FedEx Cup winner took down three stacked-field events and carded Top-20 results at all four majors, including a T7 at Augusta National last year. Hovland might not be able to flip a switch entirely to fend off his long-time kryptonite, but again, it might not even matter because the rest of his game is elite.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

  • Sam Burns (+8,000 at FanDuel)

While the five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t been a factor in majors to this point of his career, Burns has the all-around game to compete at Augusta National and he’s coming off a respectable T29 finish in the 2023 Masters.

Fairways and greens are the perfect recipe for him to be successful this week because his putting will lead to more circles than squares on the card. The +8,000 FanDuel odds are also a great number and present a massive positive expected value of 94% compared to the +4,000 Caesars price.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

Masters longshot pick

  • Nick Taylor (+27,000 at DraftKings)

The four-time PGA Tour winner is priced as short as +15,000 through bet365, so this is a small value bet (0.1 units) on Taylor based on the odds discrepancy. I expect the Canadian to continue his strong season and he finished T29 in his lone Masters appearances in the 2020 fall event.

He's gained true strokes on approach in each event this season and he’s gained true strokes on the greens in seven of nine. I also recommend taking advantage of his +100 DraftKings odds to finish Top 40 with a 0.5-unit bet.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

Round 1 picks

  • Tiger Woods to make 4+ birdies or better (+120 at FanDuel)

I looked very hard at Tiger to make the cut at even money. I believe he really wants to set that made-cut record. However, it’s just so hard to trust that Tiger will be able to make it through two rounds unscathed. 

Instead, let’s bank on Tiger’s knowledge of this course to help him sink a few birdies in Round 1 without inevitable bogeys holding us back. He's averaged 3.4 birdies or better in Round 1 at The Masters over his last five starts there, draining at least three in all five.

At +120, this is the best bet on the board and one that shouldn't be held back from the deterioration of Tiger's body.
-Covers betting analyst Andrew Caley

  • Scottie Scheffler Under 70.5 Round 1 score (+110 at Caesars)

The weather forecast is giving us a good number here and Scheffler has carded sub-70 opening rounds in each of his past two trips to Augusta. Additionally, he’s gone Under this 70.5 total in 29 consecutive rounds dating back to the final round of The Sentry in January.

His ball-striking can play in a blizzard and if conditions become too difficult, I’m expecting play to be suspended. Plus, the rain will soften and slow the track to improve scoring conditions once the tournament resumes.

There are enough birdie opportunities at Augusta National, and Scheffler’s entire game is in strong enough form to fire a 70-or-better opening round.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

  • Rory McIlroy Under 71.5 Round 1 score (-110 at Caesars)

McIlroy gained +3.72 true strokes on approach in the final round of the Valero Texas Open and I’m anticipating the ball-striking wizardry to carry over to Round 1 of the Masters. Additionally, I think we’re landing a fair total because the weather forecast isn’t promising.

While there may be fleeting unfavorable scoring conditions, I do think this is an early-week overreaction. Round 1 play could be suspended and the rain will only soften conditions and slow Augusta National down. 

The wind will be the biggest challenge and McIlroy’s fourth in total strokes gained and sixth in strokes gained ball-striking when combining moderate and extreme wind conditions across the past 50 rounds, per Fantasy National.
-Covers betting analyst Neil Parker

Round 2 picks

  • Will Zalatoris – Outright (+4,000 at FanDuel)

The 27-year-old looks fully recovered from the back injury that cost him most of the 2023 season. Zalatoris has two Top 5 finishes already this season and has the Masters experience required to be a contender on Sunday, with a solo second in 2021 and a T6 in 2022.

Zalatoris finished his round Thursday shooting a 2-under 70, which could have been better if not for bogeys on the final two holes. But he absolutely crushed the Par 5s sinking three birdies and an eagle. If he can limit the mistakes and his putter gets hot, you could easily see his name near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

  • Tony Finau Top 20 (+110 at DraftKings)

The 34-year-old doesn’t have a win yet on Tour this season, but the numbers say he was playing well. Finau ranks 43rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach, and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He also put together his best four rounds of the season to finish second at the Houston Open just last week.

The putter though. It ranks 153rd in terms of strokes gained. Thursday at Augusta pretty much played out exactly that way.

Finau was second in the field in SG: Approach but struggled with the putter. He went 3-under on the Par 5s and finished the day shooting a 1-under 71. The way Tony is hitting the ball if he can get anything out of his putter this weekend he’ll have a shot to move up the leaderboard. He already has three Top 10 in six starts at Augusta, so why not one more?

  • Tyrrell Hatton 3-Ball Round 2 vs. Bradley, Pavon (+125 at FanDuel)

Tyrrell Hatton is another guy who fits the Augusta mold, in theory. Hatton is an iron player and not too shabby with the driver. But he tends to stay off my betting card because he is usually one of the more, um, emotional golfers these days. And the ups and downs that come with playing at The Masters usually reward those who can keep those emotions in check.

Hatton was 3-under par through 14 holes when play was suspended Thursday and finished the day Top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Approach, and Total heading into Friday.

 Which is great. But what I really like about this bet is his competition. Hatton will just have to beat out Keegan Bradley and Matthieu Pavon.

Round 3 picks

  • Tyrell Hatton Top 20 (+130 at DraftKings)

A couple of hiccups have hurt Hatton, but this will be the fourth consecutive year he’s played the weekend at Augusta National, and he did put eight circles on the card through the first two rounds.

I’m also expecting to see improved work on the greens from Hatton in the next two days. The Englishman finished 72nd in true strokes gained putting in Round 2 after ranking 11th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

  • Shane Lowry Top 20 (+165 at DraftKings)

There’s a short path to improved results this weekend for Lowry after he putted poorly and wasn’t tidy around the greens through the first two rounds at Augusta National. The Irishman finished 11th in true strokes gained on approaches and 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green, so the ball-striking remains dialed.

  • Harris English Top 20 (+210 at DraftKings)

Harris English's Masters track record isn’t strong, but he’s playing the weekend for the second consecutive year and entered the event ranked 23rd in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 15th in true strokes gained putting in this field across his prior 20 rounds.

I also value English’s experience as a four-time PGA Tour winner and 13-year pro. 

Round 4 picks

  • Max Homa to shoot 72.5 or lower (-130 at Caesars)

Homa carded 17 pars and a bogey in Round 3, and he’s gained true strokes across the board through the first three rounds. He’ll avoid the added pressure of being in the final group Sunday, and Homa’s ball-striking has been nearly perfect. Homa ranks fifth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and first in true strokes gained on approaches.

The bridies are coming in Round 4, too. Homa is garnering attention for going 32 consecutive holes without a circle on the card, but there have only been a pair of squares, and he’s consistently giving himself scoring chances by hitting 27 of 36 greens in regulation over the past two rounds.

  • Max Homa over Ludvig Aberg (+122 at Caesars)

After laying out the case for Homa playing well Sunday, there’s also a case for Aberg taking a step back. The major championship rookie ranks second in true strokes gained putting through three rounds, and he entered the 2024 Masters ranked 33rd in the field across his past eight events, including losing strokes in each of his past two events.

  • Patrick Cantlay Round 4 score Under 71.5 (+115 at Caesars) & lowest Round 4 score (+3,000 at DraftKings)

Cantlay fired a 64 in Round 3 of the 2019 Masters and a 66 in Round 2 of the 2020 event, so he has posted a number in the past. He’ll need to go low Sunday to have any chance of winning, and he’s putted better in consecutive rounds after losing -1.99 true strokes in Round 1 and finishing 80th of 89 players in true strokes gained putting.

Let’s not forget Cantlay ranked fourth in birdie-or-better percentage (25.54%) last year, and he’s 23rd with a 25.72% mark this year with seven of his 27 rounds at 66 or better ahead of the Masters.

Masters betting stats that matter

The way to conquer Augusta National is the same every year (and any season): players will need to be accurate with their approach shots and excel at the short game. Players have no hope of contending if they can't hold the greens, and that task is never more challenging than it is at Augusta, where ruthless greens spit approach shots onto challenging run-off areas.

And those shots just off the green are no gimmes, either: These greens run as fast as any on tour. SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green are the most critical stats of the week, as is SG: Putting—long bombs off the tee won't help players much if they can't convert their shots afterward.

Where can I bet on the Masters?

With the Masters being the most popular golf event in North America, all sportsbooks and betting sites will offer Masters betting markets. The trick is finding one that is reputable, trustworthy, and has all the bells and whistles you're looking for. Luckily, we've done that work for you. Check out our recommendations for the best golf betting sites before you deposit and start betting.

How to make Masters picks

Here are several key factors to consider before making your Masters wagers:

Form: Assess how golfers have been performing leading up to the tournament. Look at recent tournaments and their performance in previous Masters tournaments as well.

Course history: Some golfers perform consistently well at Augusta National, while others struggle. Consider how golfers have historically performed at this course.

Health: Check if golfers are dealing with any injuries or health issues that might affect their performance during the tournament.

Conditions: Weather and course conditions can significantly impact play. Check our Masters weather forecast leading up to and during the tournament and consider how players might perform under those conditions.

Statistical analysis: Analyze statistics such as driving distance, accuracy, greens in regulation, putting statistics, and scrambling ability. This can give insights into golfer' strengths and weaknesses.

Course setup: Understand how Augusta National is set up for the tournament. Changes in course setup can favor certain types of players, such as those with length off the tee or precision iron play. In 2024, for instance, the tees on hole No. 2 will be 10 yards further back and to the left.

Odds: Evaluate betting odds offered by various sportsbooks. Understanding the implied probability of different outcomes can help in making informed betting decisions. We update our Masters odds throughout the day to allow you to make the most informed decision possible.

Value: Look for opportunities where golf odds offered by sportsbooks are misaligned with your assessment of the golfers' chances of success. Finding value bets can lead to profitable outcomes in the long run.

Augusta National Golf Club course profile and key stats

Designed by golfing legend Bobby Jones and course architect Alister MacKenzie, Augusta National Golf Club is known for its immaculate landscaping and pristine condition. The course, which opened for play in 1933, features undulating fairways, strategically placed bunkers, and lightning-fast, heavily contoured greens.

  • Length: 7,510 yards
  • Par: 72
  • Slope rating: 137
  • Course record: 63

Who makes our Masters predictions

Neil Parker: A lifelong golf fan, Neil has been covering sports in print and online since 2011. He employs a numbers-based approach to sports betting and spends ample time at KenWo Golf Club when he isn't pumping out expert golf predictions. Read the one Masters pick he's making right now.

Chris Gregory: Chris joined the Covers crew late in 2021 as a Publishing Editor, and has since become a trusted voice in the golf community for his superb PGA picks and spot-on videos. He's a certified Rory McIlroy nerd, and is excited to share his free Golf picks with readers throughout the Masters.

Andrew Caley: Andrew has been a key member of our golf beat since joining Covers more than a decade ago. He’s seen – and predicted – plenty of triumphant results during that time including Tiger Woods’ epic win at Augusta National in 2019.

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