Everyone spent all week analyzing (and submitting) their Masters picks for the 2026 edition, but the outright market is already on the brink of being decided.
With Rory McIlroy sitting at -11 and tied with Cameron Young heading into today's final round, the defending champion is trading at 36% to win on Kalshi.
As the weekend unfolds at Augusta, the Masters odds aren’t just shifting — they’re scrambling, creating short-lived in-play opportunities for bettors willing to look beyond the runaway leader.
The most important, obviously, is who will win the Green Jacket this year — and to help you follow along with the ever-changing Masters win probability, we've got a live probability chart (courtesy of Kalshi) for the biggest favorites, along with a snapshot of the leaderboard heading into each round of play.
Live 2026 Masters win probability
With the third round in the books, Rory McIlroy (36%) is threatening to repeat as Masters champion, something that hasn’t been done since Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002.
McIlroy will enter Round 4 as the co-leader alongside Cameron Young (29%), who has skyrocketed up the leaderboard after an impressive 65 on Saturday.
Sam Burns' win probability at Kalshi is hovering around 12% after finishing the day at 10-under, followed by Shane Lowry at 6.5%.
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Current Masters leaderboard
| Golfer | Score |  |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | -11 | 36¢ +178 |
| Cameron Young | -11 | 29¢ +245 |
| Sam Burns | -10 | 12¢ +733 |
| Shane Lowry | -9 | 6.4¢ +1463 |
| Justin Rose | -8 | 6¢ +1567 |
| Jason Day | -8 | 3.4¢ +2841 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -7 | 8.4¢ +1090 |
| Haotong Li | -7 | 1¢ +9900 |
| Patrick Reed | -6 | 1¢ +9900 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -6 | 0.8¢ +12400 |
| Russell Henley | -6 | 0.7¢ +14186 |
Pre-tournament favorites to target at Kalshi
Jon Rahm (+1089/7.8¢)
Any LIV Golf discount attached to Jon Rahm has vanished, and it should have because the 2023 Masters champion is back in top ball-striking form.
Ludvig Aberg (+1738/5.1¢)
I firmly believe it's when and not if Ludvig Aberg wins at Augusta National, and he's heading to the 2026 Masters with three consecutive Top-5 finishes.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+2127/4.2¢)
It’s impossible to poke holes in current form ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick’s 12th trip to Augusta National, with a runner-up at THE PLAYERS and a win at the Valspar while gaining true strokes across the board.
Pre-tournament golfers to fade at Kalshi
Brooks Koepka (+5394/1.7¢)
Putting has been Brooks Koepka’s kryptonite in 2026 and in multiple Masters, so all the confidence in the world won’t carry him to a 2026 victory on the Augusta National green surfaces.
Justin Thomas (+7651/1.2¢)
A T8 at THE PLAYERS doesn’t give me enough confidence to back Justin Thomas in betting markets with him continuing to work his way back from offseason back surgery.
Patrick Cantlay (+7651/1.2¢)
Patrick Cantley has a single Top 10 across his nine trips to the Masters, and his last PGA Tour win was all the way back in August 2022.
Pre-tournament longshots to target at Kalshi
Nicolai Hojgaard (+7094/1.3¢)
With three Top 5s across his past eight worldwide events while gaining true strokes across the board, there are no current holes in Nicolai Hojgaard’s game.
Jake Knapp (+7651/1.2¢)
I love the course fit for Jake Knapp, and his current form is incredible. He’s pacing the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring average and Par-5 scoring while ranking second in bogey avoidance, after all.
Pre-tournament best bet at Kalshi
Xander Schauffele (+1489/5.9¢)
With a proven track record at Augusta National, excellent current form, and a pair of major championship wins, Xander Schauffele is my favorite bet to win the 2026 Masters.
The $1.00 Rule: The Foundation of Prediction Markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, there’s a strong case that American odds are more challenging for beginner bettors to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, 2026 Masters prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The winning side: Always settles at $1.00
- The losing side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for Scottie Scheffler is trading at $0.14, the market believes they have a 14% chance of victory.
Converting percentages to American odds
To compare prices of the 2026 Masters markets on Kalshi to a sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel, you must convert the percentage (the price) into American odds.
The Underdog/Yes Formula (Price below $0.50)
If the price is less than $0.50, the golfer is an underdog to win the Masters.
Formula: (100 / Price) * 100 - 100
Example: Scottie Scheffler is trading at $0.14 to win the tournament.
(100 / 14) * 100 - 100 = +614
The Favorite/No Formula (Price above $0.50)
If the price is higher than $0.50, the golfer is a favorite to not win the Masters.
Formula: (Price / (1 - Price)) * -100
Example: Scottie Scheffler is trading at $0.87 not to win the tournament.
(87 / (1 - 0.87))* -100 = -669
Here's a breakdown of how milestone prediction market probabilities translate to American odds:
| Kalshi Price | Probability | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 5% | +1900 |
| $0.10 | 10% | +900 |
| $0.20 | 20% | +400 |
| $0.25 | 25% | +300 |
| $0.40 | 40% | +150 |
| $0.50 | 50% | +100 |
| $0.60 | 60% | -150 |
| $0.75 | 75% | -300 |
| $0.80 | 80% | -400 |
| $0.90 | 90% | -900 |
Why the prices differ: The "Vig" vs. the Fee
Price display isn't the only way sportsbooks and prediction markets are different. As those new to either process will learn, how each business makes money while taking bets or predictions is also unique.
Sportsbooks: The Hold
Traditional books build a "margin" or "vig" into their odds. If both sides of a bet are -110, the book is effectively taking a 4.7% cut of the action. Some markets feature less vig, while others, like more obscure prop plays, often see a higher margin due to less certainty and greater perceived risk.
Prediction Markets: The Fee
Exchanges like Kalshi typically charge a transparent transaction fee rather than baking a margin into their event prices. This leads to "tighter" spreads and prices that more accurately reflect the true probability of the outcome.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
Why do prediction market percentages sometimes add up to more than 100%?
This is known as the order book spread. Because there's a gap between what sellers want (the "Ask") and what buyers offer (the "Bid"), the aggregate of the "Yes" prices for all golfers might sit at 102% or 103%. High-liquidity markets usually stay very close to 100%.
Is $0.50 always equal to +100?
Yes. In both prediction markets and sportsbooks, a 50% probability represents even money or +100.
Which is more accurate: the sportsbook or the prediction market?
Historically, prediction markets are considered more "efficient" because they allow unlimited stakes from informed traders (the "smart money"), whereas sportsbooks often limit winning players or set lines to balance their own liability.
It's also not uncommon for sportsbooks to adjust based on information from prediction markets.
What happens to my money if the price goes down after I buy?
Since these are traded markets, the value of your contract fluctuates in real-time. If you buy the Scottie Scheffler to win the Masters at $0.14 and he falls behind early in Round 1, the price might climb to $0.15.
You can choose to sell at a loss or hold the contract until settlement.
