The PGA Tour Florida Swing continues with the Arnold Palmer Invitation at the storied Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida this week.
While the Signature Event field is loaded with elite talents, I’ve handpicked a trio of players offering long shot and sleeper value to target as my top golf picks ahead of Round 1 on Thursday, March 5.
Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper picks
- Aberg to win (+4000 at BetMGM)
- Hojgaard to win (+5500 at BetMGM)
- Conners to win (+7000 at BetMGM)
Picks were made on 3-3 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper predictions
Sleeper pick to win: Ludvig Aberg
+4000 at BetMGM
With Ludvig Aberg returning to action with a T20 at The Genesis and carding three consecutive Top 25s in the Arnold Palmer, I’m expecting a career-best finish in the event this week. The Swede has gained true strokes off the tee and on the greens in each of his three trips to Bay Hill, and he’s ninth in birdie average to start the 2026, too.
This is a long number for a player fit to succeed on this track, and Aberg has taken down big fields with his win at Torrey Pines last year and victory in the 2023 Omega European Masters.
Sleeper pick to win: Nicolai Hojgaard
+5500 at BetMGM
The Dane is on a worldwide heater with a T4-T22-T3-T6 run, and Nicolai Hojgaard just fired a weekend-low 11-under at the Cognizant Classic to finish the event ranked sixth in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
Hojgaard will be playing Bay Hill for the third time, and he heads to the track gaining true strokes across the board during the highlighted four-tournament stretch, including ranking 13th in tee-to-green play, ninth off the tee, and 11th in putting in this field.
Sleeper pick to win: Corey Conners
+7000 at BetMGM
The elite ball-striker has a pair of solo thirds at Bay Hill while gaining true strokes on approach in all seven trips to the track.
Additionally, while Corey Conners is in longshot territory because of a slow start to 2026, he’s picked up his play during the Florida Swing in each of the past five seasons, with a T21 his worst showing in this event during the run.
If his putter cashes in the opportunities his tee-to-green game will provide, another run at winning this event is in store.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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