⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Rory McIlroy to win (+900) – Approach game is dialed ahead of 12th visit to a track he’s won and consistently contended at.
- Best early value: Corey Conners to win (+7000) – Checks course history box and has the tee-to-green game to give his putter chances to score.
- Course: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a massive 7,466-yard Par 72 annually standing as one of the tour's toughest tests.
- Weather: Early forecasts call for warm, mainly sunny weather with winds topping out at 20 mph gusts and potential for chance precipitation Friday through Sunday.
- Expected cut: The API is a player-hosted Signature Event featuring a 36-hole cut to the Top 50 and ties, in addition to any player(s) within 10 shots of the lead. The cut has been between +3 and +5 in each of the past five years.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: favorites & full field
The Arnold Palmer Invitational runs March 5-8 at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.
| Golfer |  |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +333 |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 |
| Jake Knapp | +2800 |
| Russell Henley | +2800 |
Odds as of March 2 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Check out the full Arnold Palmer Invitational field from the official PGA Tour website.
Course breakdown: What wins at Bay Hill Club & Lodge?
Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge annually ranks among the toughest non-major courses on the PGA Tour circuit due to its 7,466-yard length, thick Bermuda rough, firm greens, and water hazards in play on nine of 18 holes.
Add the potential for gusty Florida winds to have a say to Bay Hill requiring far more long approaches (49.95% from 175 yards or longer in 2025) than the typical course, and elite tee-to-green play has historically been paramount to success. The winner has finished Top 3 in true strokes gained tee-to-green in three of the past five years, after all.
Winning at Bay Hill has also required tidy work around the greens, with both Russell Henley and Scottie Scheffler pacing the field in true strokes gained around-the-green, while each ranking eighth in scrambling during their respective victories the past two years.
The Dick Wilson\Joe Lee design is a true test that also rewards course knowledge and experience, and Bay Hill also ranks among the most predictive tracks on the PGA Tour schedule. After all, six of the past seven winners had a prior Top-15 finish in the API before their victory, with Scheffler winning in 2022 and 2024.
- Highest percent of penalty strokes in four of the past five years
- All four Par 3s are 199 yards or longer
- Water hazards are in play on nine of 18 holes
- Thick Bermuda rough penalizes missed fairways and greens
- Par-5 scoring at a premium
Players to watch
- Rory McIlroy: The 2018 winner has five more Top 10s in this event and checks all the boxes required to win again.
- Corey Conners: Elite ball-striker has a pair of solo thirds at Bay Hill while gaining true strokes on approach in all seven trips to the track.
- Matt Fitzpatrick: Englishman has four Top 10s across 11 visits to Bay Hill and ranks second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green through his past 20 rounds.
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained tee-to-green
- True strokes gained around the green and scrambling
- Par-5 scoring
- Bogey avoidance
- True strokes gained off-the-tee
Players to watch
- Scottie Scheffler: Wins and statistical dominance have gone hand-in-hand for Scheffler, dating back to picking up career victory No. 2 here in 2022.
- Tommy Fleetwood: With oodles of experience at Bay Hill, a sterling statistical profile, and consecutive Top 10s leading into the API, Fleetwood is rightfully positioned among the betting favorites.
- Jake Knapp: Puts circles on the card on Par 5s and has carded four straight Top 10s while gaining true strokes across the board ahead of second visit to Bay Hill.
Odds movement & market notes
With both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in the field, there is a clear one-two at the top of the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds list, and I would expect the highest betting handle to come in on Scheffler and McIlroy when it's all said and done. Additionally, I'm not anticipating an out-of-nowhere winner this week, either.
Bay Hill typically rewards players with an elite tee-to-green game and course experience, so I wouldn't be surprised if Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Collin Morikawa were also popular targets for bettors this week.
How to watch & tee times (quick links)
How to watch (All Times ET):
- Thursday-Friday: 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Golf Channel)
- Saturday-Sunday: 12:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. (Golf Channel); 2:30 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Tee times:
- Round 1 tee times should be released on Tuesday, March 3, on the PGA Tour website.
Arnold Palmer Invitational betting FAQ
When is the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational?
The 2026 edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational is Thursday, March 5, to Sunday, March 8.
Where will the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational be played?
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational is being played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida.
What is the “Florida Swing?”
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the second event of the "Florida Swing," a series of tournaments played on the state's challenging Bermuda grass courses.
Who is the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational favorite?
World No. 1 and two-time winner Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at BetMGM.
What are the Arnold Palmer Invitational FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Arnold Palmer Invitational matchup bets work?
When betting Arnold Palmer Invitational matchups, you're selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Arnold Palmer Invitational cut line?
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a player-hosted Signature Event featuring a 36-hole cut to the Top 50 and ties, in addition to any player(s) within 10 shots of the lead. The cut has been between +3 and +5 in each of the past five years.
Are the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You'll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational; it's always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
