August 27, 2026
New York Liberty -2.5 (-115) -- ($115 to win $100)
Phoenix Mercury +4.5 (-110) -- ($110 to win $100)
Bankroll: +$1,190
WNBA Record: 39-27
Notes:
I said I was finished with the WNBA season, but I decided to see if I could squeeze out a few more wins before the FIBA World Cup break.
Today, I’m focusing on home teams with revenge situations—specifically double revenge. All eight playoff spots have essentially been decided, so at this point, the biggest thing left to play for is seeding. That can change how teams approach these final games.
New York Liberty: I like this spot for New York because they’re at home and have double revenge against Golden State. The Valkyries finally beat Minnesota, their first win against the Lynx, and then carried that momentum into a big win over Connecticut. Now they have to play New York on the second night of a back-to-back. That could create a fatigue factor, especially against a Liberty team at home that has something to prove.
Phoenix Mercury: I also like the revenge angle here. Phoenix has double revenge against Washington and is trying to avoid getting swept in the season series. In the last meeting, Phoenix shot just 3-for-17 from three, which is only 17.6%. That's a number I expect to improve. Phoenix also outscored Washington 51-43 in the second half, showing they were much more competitive after halftime.
If Phoenix can avoid another slow start, keep this game close heading into the second half, and simply shoot a little better from three, I think they have a legitimate chance to cover—or even win outright. Washington is the better team, but Phoenix is at home, has revenge, and the market is asking them to stay within a few possessions.
The biggest thing for me is buying low on Phoenix after an ugly shooting performance. I'm not expecting them to suddenly dominate Washington. I just need them to play a more complete game, get better three-point shooting, and take advantage of being at home.
That's the type of situation I'm looking for today: home court + revenge + a team coming off a poor performance that has a realistic path to improve.
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