Another trend I want you to pay attention to - if we already open the subject - is the what happened in a GS, Memphis Portland threesome relations. GS loses in a very strange way to Memphis, Only to beat the Blazers and cover who beat the Memphis and covered in between GS two games. Those kind of things I mark on a schedule and looking carefully to see if the trend is beginning. To really beat the books on a long terms - you have to learn the pattern. Not that I think that I discovered something new - but thought you might like to know if we already are at the right Thread for this kind of the conversation. BOL
0
Another trend I want you to pay attention to - if we already open the subject - is the what happened in a GS, Memphis Portland threesome relations. GS loses in a very strange way to Memphis, Only to beat the Blazers and cover who beat the Memphis and covered in between GS two games. Those kind of things I mark on a schedule and looking carefully to see if the trend is beginning. To really beat the books on a long terms - you have to learn the pattern. Not that I think that I discovered something new - but thought you might like to know if we already are at the right Thread for this kind of the conversation. BOL
MK, your input on the subject of Capping is very much appreciated. Personally - I take all your notes on the subject and one day might use all those to cap myself. But, right now - the only thing I do is waiting until you sound a tweet and get your pick. It is much easier and for sure much profitable than capping by myself. Thanks for sharing your picks and great strategic info about capping.
0
MK, your input on the subject of Capping is very much appreciated. Personally - I take all your notes on the subject and one day might use all those to cap myself. But, right now - the only thing I do is waiting until you sound a tweet and get your pick. It is much easier and for sure much profitable than capping by myself. Thanks for sharing your picks and great strategic info about capping.
MK, your input on the subject of Capping is very much appreciated. Personally - I take all your notes on the subject and one day might use all those to cap myself. But, right now - the only thing I do is waiting until you sound a tweet and get your pick. It is much easier and for sure much profitable than capping by myself. Thanks for sharing your picks and great strategic info about capping.
0
Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:
MK, your input on the subject of Capping is very much appreciated. Personally - I take all your notes on the subject and one day might use all those to cap myself. But, right now - the only thing I do is waiting until you sound a tweet and get your pick. It is much easier and for sure much profitable than capping by myself. Thanks for sharing your picks and great strategic info about capping.
This thread is getting better and better with each day. Great input MK. Thanks for sharing Brada!
It would be great if each of us wrote here what strategy he uses to bet. Sometimes, when you have to write it down, you're actually are developing the strategy that if successful and you also follow it - can be the difference between spontaneous betting that usually ends up as losing and the well organized one that can bring profitable results.
0
Quote Originally Posted by tahrir2011:
This thread is getting better and better with each day. Great input MK. Thanks for sharing Brada!
It would be great if each of us wrote here what strategy he uses to bet. Sometimes, when you have to write it down, you're actually are developing the strategy that if successful and you also follow it - can be the difference between spontaneous betting that usually ends up as losing and the well organized one that can bring profitable results.
MK - couldn't agree more about looking for the patterns.
Two things that have been working for me in the NBA
1) Look at all the lines for the day and choose the one that immediately sticks out as a strange line - e.g. a good team getting points to a mediocre one (e.g. Port +3.5 vs GS), a shit team being favoured by -3 or more (e.g. Wash -7 vs Cha), or in today's game a team (Orlando) getting -9.5 when they were beaten by that same team by 31 points a few nights ago. I feel these games are where the bookies are "tipping their hat" as to what the play is. It is incredibly hard to pull the trigger on these plays sometimes, because they just "feel" like the wrong play - and sometimes they are! - but I find they hit consistently at 55% or better.
Note: I won't play Orlando today because I also make it a rule to pretty much never play games when there are only 2 on the board - too many fishy results on these days.
2) Look at the last game/s of the day, and establish which is most likely the play people are chasing on - and play the opposite. Obviously this is a "vague" rule, but it's amazing how often you could sit down with someone - with no emotion - look at a line and establish what is likely the "chase" play. It seems in the NBA to every other night be a Lakers game, and what I've found very, very profitable is to pick your spots to be on the Over/Under in these games - particularly in the 2H. I haven't yet taken the time to do a historical ATS on basic "flipping" what happened in the 1H - i.e. high scoring, go under 2H, and vice versa - but I know that has been very profitable.
0
MK - couldn't agree more about looking for the patterns.
Two things that have been working for me in the NBA
1) Look at all the lines for the day and choose the one that immediately sticks out as a strange line - e.g. a good team getting points to a mediocre one (e.g. Port +3.5 vs GS), a shit team being favoured by -3 or more (e.g. Wash -7 vs Cha), or in today's game a team (Orlando) getting -9.5 when they were beaten by that same team by 31 points a few nights ago. I feel these games are where the bookies are "tipping their hat" as to what the play is. It is incredibly hard to pull the trigger on these plays sometimes, because they just "feel" like the wrong play - and sometimes they are! - but I find they hit consistently at 55% or better.
Note: I won't play Orlando today because I also make it a rule to pretty much never play games when there are only 2 on the board - too many fishy results on these days.
2) Look at the last game/s of the day, and establish which is most likely the play people are chasing on - and play the opposite. Obviously this is a "vague" rule, but it's amazing how often you could sit down with someone - with no emotion - look at a line and establish what is likely the "chase" play. It seems in the NBA to every other night be a Lakers game, and what I've found very, very profitable is to pick your spots to be on the Over/Under in these games - particularly in the 2H. I haven't yet taken the time to do a historical ATS on basic "flipping" what happened in the 1H - i.e. high scoring, go under 2H, and vice versa - but I know that has been very profitable.
MK - couldn't agree more about looking for the patterns.
Two things that have been working for me in the NBA
1) Look at all the lines for the day and choose the one that immediately sticks out as a strange line - e.g. a good team getting points to a mediocre one (e.g. Port +3.5 vs GS), a shit team being favoured by -3 or more (e.g. Wash -7 vs Cha), or in today's game a team (Orlando) getting -9.5 when they were beaten by that same team by 31 points a few nights ago. I feel these games are where the bookies are "tipping their hat" as to what the play is. It is incredibly hard to pull the trigger on these plays sometimes, because they just "feel" like the wrong play - and sometimes they are! - but I find they hit consistently at 55% or better.
Note: I won't play Orlando today because I also make it a rule to pretty much never play games when there are only 2 on the board - too many fishy results on these days.
2) Look at the last game/s of the day, and establish which is most likely the play people are chasing on - and play the opposite. Obviously this is a "vague" rule, but it's amazing how often you could sit down with someone - with no emotion - look at a line and establish what is likely the "chase" play. It seems in the NBA to every other night be a Lakers game, and what I've found very, very profitable is to pick your spots to be on the Over/Under in these games - particularly in the 2H. I haven't yet taken the time to do a historical ATS on basic "flipping" what happened in the 1H - i.e. high scoring, go under 2H, and vice versa - but I know that has been very profitable.
Great and absolutely viable observations that clearly define the patterns of betting on American Sports and especially on NBA. Great work CMP. Please keep bringing your input here and everywhere brother bettors are present ion masses.
0
Quote Originally Posted by CMP:
MK - couldn't agree more about looking for the patterns.
Two things that have been working for me in the NBA
1) Look at all the lines for the day and choose the one that immediately sticks out as a strange line - e.g. a good team getting points to a mediocre one (e.g. Port +3.5 vs GS), a shit team being favoured by -3 or more (e.g. Wash -7 vs Cha), or in today's game a team (Orlando) getting -9.5 when they were beaten by that same team by 31 points a few nights ago. I feel these games are where the bookies are "tipping their hat" as to what the play is. It is incredibly hard to pull the trigger on these plays sometimes, because they just "feel" like the wrong play - and sometimes they are! - but I find they hit consistently at 55% or better.
Note: I won't play Orlando today because I also make it a rule to pretty much never play games when there are only 2 on the board - too many fishy results on these days.
2) Look at the last game/s of the day, and establish which is most likely the play people are chasing on - and play the opposite. Obviously this is a "vague" rule, but it's amazing how often you could sit down with someone - with no emotion - look at a line and establish what is likely the "chase" play. It seems in the NBA to every other night be a Lakers game, and what I've found very, very profitable is to pick your spots to be on the Over/Under in these games - particularly in the 2H. I haven't yet taken the time to do a historical ATS on basic "flipping" what happened in the 1H - i.e. high scoring, go under 2H, and vice versa - but I know that has been very profitable.
Great and absolutely viable observations that clearly define the patterns of betting on American Sports and especially on NBA. Great work CMP. Please keep bringing your input here and everywhere brother bettors are present ion masses.
No problem MK, and great work you have going with your site. Funny thing is that I'm a numbers guy who doesn't really want to buy into Vegas fixing games, but I can't deny that at least "thinking" that they do can be profitable. Why does playing against a late night chase work? Who knows? Part of it is an inflated line as people hit the "wrong side" and push it up, but that can't be all the answer.
The good thing about some of these patterns is that they are irrational or highly situational in nature, and therefore will never be "priced into" the market.
BOL with today's plays!
0
No problem MK, and great work you have going with your site. Funny thing is that I'm a numbers guy who doesn't really want to buy into Vegas fixing games, but I can't deny that at least "thinking" that they do can be profitable. Why does playing against a late night chase work? Who knows? Part of it is an inflated line as people hit the "wrong side" and push it up, but that can't be all the answer.
The good thing about some of these patterns is that they are irrational or highly situational in nature, and therefore will never be "priced into" the market.
Crazy day yesterday in NBA and those kind of nights are to be taken into the consideration too when you look at the big picture (although I went 1-0 on NBA and 3-3 overall) , once in a while night like that happen when the overwhelming amount of bets are on one side and there is no way to cover them from another. I call those nights "cooperation nights" between Vegas and the WGs. Which other regular nights you will see so manu SU wins by a great Underdogs? Toronto (+10, SU win by 5, Delta 15), NJ (+13.5, SU win by 7, Delta 20.5), Milwaukee (+5, SU win by 6, Delta 11), Indiana (+9, SU win by 5, Delta 14), Minnesota (+5.5, SU Win by 15, Delta 20.5), Cleveland (+3.5, SU win by 10, Delta 13.5). Vegas is never that wrong all in one night!!! BOL
Unbelievable but true
0
Quote Originally Posted by mkbini:
Crazy day yesterday in NBA and those kind of nights are to be taken into the consideration too when you look at the big picture (although I went 1-0 on NBA and 3-3 overall) , once in a while night like that happen when the overwhelming amount of bets are on one side and there is no way to cover them from another. I call those nights "cooperation nights" between Vegas and the WGs. Which other regular nights you will see so manu SU wins by a great Underdogs? Toronto (+10, SU win by 5, Delta 15), NJ (+13.5, SU win by 7, Delta 20.5), Milwaukee (+5, SU win by 6, Delta 11), Indiana (+9, SU win by 5, Delta 14), Minnesota (+5.5, SU Win by 15, Delta 20.5), Cleveland (+3.5, SU win by 10, Delta 13.5). Vegas is never that wrong all in one night!!! BOL
I checked out his website and MK appears to be very legit. However, if you look at his plays, it is nearly impossible to tail as many are in-game soccer, Euro Basketball, etc. You have about a 2 minute window to get the bet in and a lot of these are 5 unit bets. If you miss a few 3-5 unit bets, that's the difference between a good and bad month. I was all excited to tail him but then realized it won't be possible, especially for US players.
0
I checked out his website and MK appears to be very legit. However, if you look at his plays, it is nearly impossible to tail as many are in-game soccer, Euro Basketball, etc. You have about a 2 minute window to get the bet in and a lot of these are 5 unit bets. If you miss a few 3-5 unit bets, that's the difference between a good and bad month. I was all excited to tail him but then realized it won't be possible, especially for US players.
I checked out his website and MK appears to be very legit. However, if you look at his plays, it is nearly impossible to tail as many are in-game soccer, Euro Basketball, etc. You have about a 2 minute window to get the bet in and a lot of these are 5 unit bets. If you miss a few 3-5 unit bets, that's the difference between a good and bad month. I was all excited to tail him but then realized it won't be possible, especially for US players.
dkite22 - thanks for your input, but as one who is tailing MK and did it after researching all the possible parameters - there are few details you presented in a wrongly manner: Out of 545 tips ('till today) he won 323 and lost 222 while the Live in bet plays were only 8 out of all those. 8 out of 545!!! And the man is tweeting each live one. I would not say that 8 out of 545 is a lot and most of his 3-5 unit plays are not live of course as he has 48 plays like that. He is 34-14 NHL, 72-49 NBA, 22-22 NFL while up 11.8 units since his winners have been multi unit ones and 13-12 college football. He is also 26-23 College hoops and of course is brilliant in Soccer and Euro basketball 83-39 (including few Intl Basketball too). He is excellent in tennis 12-3 for 38!!! units up. He is very consistent on his American Sports bets and does everything to help his friends (we) and there is no question about his legitimacy and decency (we knew all that from his endeavour here too). It took me whole week to check his site stats after following him for months and finally I took the decision to tail him and since he is 14-6 with 12+ units up with the plays I played and I missed a few because it took me time to register for a tweeter accounts and I cant blame him for that. And at all, how many guys you know doing what he is doing free, no commercials as we saw in the recent comment exchange - he turns down books who want him to promote them because they would pay him on the players losses and he refuses to recommend the book if you ask him. I respect MK a lot and I know I am not the only one. He has also consistently made money fron may 2011 every single month and the least I can do for him is to stand at the guard so the facts about him and his site would be seat straight.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dkite22:
I checked out his website and MK appears to be very legit. However, if you look at his plays, it is nearly impossible to tail as many are in-game soccer, Euro Basketball, etc. You have about a 2 minute window to get the bet in and a lot of these are 5 unit bets. If you miss a few 3-5 unit bets, that's the difference between a good and bad month. I was all excited to tail him but then realized it won't be possible, especially for US players.
dkite22 - thanks for your input, but as one who is tailing MK and did it after researching all the possible parameters - there are few details you presented in a wrongly manner: Out of 545 tips ('till today) he won 323 and lost 222 while the Live in bet plays were only 8 out of all those. 8 out of 545!!! And the man is tweeting each live one. I would not say that 8 out of 545 is a lot and most of his 3-5 unit plays are not live of course as he has 48 plays like that. He is 34-14 NHL, 72-49 NBA, 22-22 NFL while up 11.8 units since his winners have been multi unit ones and 13-12 college football. He is also 26-23 College hoops and of course is brilliant in Soccer and Euro basketball 83-39 (including few Intl Basketball too). He is excellent in tennis 12-3 for 38!!! units up. He is very consistent on his American Sports bets and does everything to help his friends (we) and there is no question about his legitimacy and decency (we knew all that from his endeavour here too). It took me whole week to check his site stats after following him for months and finally I took the decision to tail him and since he is 14-6 with 12+ units up with the plays I played and I missed a few because it took me time to register for a tweeter accounts and I cant blame him for that. And at all, how many guys you know doing what he is doing free, no commercials as we saw in the recent comment exchange - he turns down books who want him to promote them because they would pay him on the players losses and he refuses to recommend the book if you ask him. I respect MK a lot and I know I am not the only one. He has also consistently made money fron may 2011 every single month and the least I can do for him is to stand at the guard so the facts about him and his site would be seat straight.
Tailing anyone is absurd. They can disappear, go through a personal crisis and suck up, or just turn into a lemon after a hot streak. In order to succeed long-term, you and only you have to come up with a 'system'. Your model's intracacies are irrelevant, simpler the better. The point is having one, back-testing it, then sticking to it through thick or thin. Also, 'some' officials in the NBA are shady to say the least, point-shaving is not as uncommon as Vegas would like you to believe. I like total points better than ats/ml in NBA simply for that reason alone. those deltas someone mentioned regarding ats, that's way too much variance to even attempt to smooth out.
0
Tailing anyone is absurd. They can disappear, go through a personal crisis and suck up, or just turn into a lemon after a hot streak. In order to succeed long-term, you and only you have to come up with a 'system'. Your model's intracacies are irrelevant, simpler the better. The point is having one, back-testing it, then sticking to it through thick or thin. Also, 'some' officials in the NBA are shady to say the least, point-shaving is not as uncommon as Vegas would like you to believe. I like total points better than ats/ml in NBA simply for that reason alone. those deltas someone mentioned regarding ats, that's way too much variance to even attempt to smooth out.