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How to hit 70% (or better) in MLB using Teamrankings.com

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Prospect
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Posted: #1301
To all of you who follow this tread, I would like to know how many of you take the TM#'s into account for the purpose of wagering? The original intent was to use those #'s in an effort to have a 70% win rate.
 
We all know that you have to take into consideration the starting pitcher and bullpen. And as GMAL has shown that the weather is also a factor when conditions are bad or the wind is blowing in the right direction.
 
So I'd like to propose that we would all work on this together. First on the highest rated teams, and also keep the POD's and other game analysis comming in.
 
Because as far as I've seen to date, their is no record of the 70% winning tracked or followed.
 
To lead the way todays top games are : BOS & NYY  with BOS and CLE starting pitchers giving up some pts., while Bos has the better bp. NYY's have a heck of an arm starting with no adv. in the pen. Are either of them rl worthy tonight?
 
I've posted LAA as aplay of mine tonight earlier, but I guess i'm classified as a "volume bettor", making 8-15 selections per night (mlb season), and I will try to post what I feel a stronger selection may be. I do chase certian things and will let you know if you want that kind of info here.
 
What do you think?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #1302
Well put Bulichm. Its gettin to that point were we we're all getting a little lazy and and expecting people to just post winners everyday... Time to refocus and pull our resources and get back to that 70%.
 
Legend
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Posted: #1303

Wed.Plays IMO are Tex,Bos,Wash.all rl.Those 3 teams also fall into TR best figs.Also leans on Minn.rl,TB ml,and Phillies ml.I also have some o/u plays if you want me to post.

 
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Posted: #1304
7pm ET                    IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
NYY: 102.2 L Sabathia (5-3, 4.14 ERA)  78/1.17 1.42 5.01 W2 7-3 +5.2
BAL: 97.0 R Tillman (0-1, 7.71 ERA)     07/2.14 1.54 4.70  L1 1-9~15-20 mph from South, out towards Lfield, 74°F, 70% rain
PIT: 97.0 R Lincoln (0-0, 0.00 ERA)       --------- 1.29 3.79  L3 3-7
WSH: 100.0 L Lannan (2-3, 4.79 ERA)  62/1.63 1.30 3.10 W1 3-7 +3.0
~15 mph from South, in from Rfield, 76°F, 70% rain
BOS:102.9 R Buchholz (8-3, 2.39 ERA)71/1.28 1.23 3.63 W2 8-2 +7.0
CLE: 95.9 R Masterson (1-5, 5.46 ERA)59/1.82 1.71 4.95  L3 3-7
~10-15 mph from WNW, out to RField, 73°F
FLA: 99.4 R Johnson (6-2, 2.10 ERA)    77/1..08 1.25 2.81  L4 4-6
PHI: 100.8 R Halladay (8-3, 2.03 ERA)  93/1.03 1.29 3.03 W1 4-5 +1.4
~10-15 mph from SE, out to LField, 66°F, 80% rain
TOR: 101.4 R Marcum (5-2, 2.77 ERA)81/1.05 1.32 3.93  L2 6-4 +1.7
TB: 99.7 L Price (8-2, 2.29 ERA)           74/1.14 1.11 2.99 W2 5-5Weather conditions will not affect the game.
SF: 100.8 L Sanchez (4-4, 2.63 ERA)    68/1.10 1.21 2.64 W3 7-3 +0.4
CIN: 100.4 R Harang (4-5, 5.43 ERA)   69/1.48 1.55 4.52  L2 4-6
~10-15 mph from W, out to LField, 81°F, 30% rain
SD: 102.1 R Latos (5-4, 3.26 ERA)       66/1.06 0.99 2.36  L1 6-4
NYM: 103.6 L Santana (4-2, 2.76 ERA)78/1.15 1.48 3.70 W4 6-4 +1.5
<10 mph from NE, out to LField, 68°F, 20% rain
 
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Posted: #1305
8pm ET                    IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
SEA: 97.5 R Snell (0-4, 4.64 ERA)        42/1.66 1.37 4.55  L1 4-6
TEX: 101.2 L Wilson (4-3, 3.62 ERA)   69/1.25 1.28 3.28 W1 5-5 +3.7
<10 mph from SE, in from CField, 84°F, 70% rain
DET: 99.5 R Porcello (4-5, 5.25 ERA)   61/1.65 1.27 2.80 W1 5-5 +2.3
CHW: 97.2 R Garcia (5-3, 4.94 ERA)    58/1.39 1.42 4.08   L1 4-6
10-20 mph from W/NW, out towarads LField, 79°F
CHC:98.9 R Zambrano(1-4, 6.14 ERA)36/1.75 1.28 4.02   L1 3-7 +2.7
MIL: 96.2 L Wolf (4-5, 4.66 ERA)        73/1.58 1.48 5.45 W2 4-6
10-20 mph from West, out towards LField, 76°F
KC: 99.9 R Davies (4-4, 5.49 ERA)      60/1.45 1.34 3.63  L1 3-7
MIN: 101.7 R Pavano (5-6, 4.11 ERA) 72/1.19 1.15 2.99 W1 6-4 +1.8
10-15 mph from NW, towards CField, 70°F (Double check if its actually blowing out towards CField, the website had no picture with arrows today)
 
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Posted: #1306
                                        IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
HOU: 98.8 R Paulino (1-7, 4.01 ERA)       67/1.40 1.47 4.67 W1 7-3
COL: 101.1 R Cook (2-3, 5.00 ERA)         63/1.55 1.17 3.10  L1 5-5 +3.3
8:40pm ET  5-10 mph E/SE, out towards RField, 83°F, 40% rain
ATL:100.6 R Kawakami (0-8, 4.91 ERA)  62/1.38 1.22 2.86 W1 7-3 +1.2
ARI: 99.4 R Kennedy (3-3, 3.46 ERA)      75/1.17 1.68 6.21  L1 3-7
9:40pm ET High 90°F, Indoor
LAA: 101.1 L Saunders (4-6, 4.78 ERA)    69/1.56 1.52 4.45  L1 8-2 +0.1
OAK: 101.0 L Braden (4-5, 3.77 ERA)     76/1.09 1.32 3.80 W1 4-6
10pm ET ~15 mph from West, Out towards CField, 62°F
STL:100.6 R Wainwright (8-3, 2.05 ERA)88/0.94 1.17 3.12  L3 5-5
LAD: 101.6 L Kershaw (5-3, 3.06 ERA)   70/1.34 1.06 2.98 W3 8-2 +1.0
10pm ET5-10 mph form SW, out towards Center & Left, 68°F
 
Legend
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Posted: #1307
Thanks GMAL
 
Captain
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Posted: #1308
Yankees, Boston parlay ML
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1309

     OK,read your posts. not sure where to start for today.

The top 2 gms are NYY and BOS. I use to hate the Yanks, but now i'm growing more comfortable beting on them nearly always rl or -2 1/2 line. Really like the wind direction today. Figure Tillman may not last very long,which would put the BP in giving them a better chance.   BOS looks good over all. Dont see any reason not to play either game rl.

Next 3--- I like TEX the best for a rl pick, better starter and bp to back him up. The tm ml's for the WAS and COL gms suggest closer contests. I'm not much for suprises (Lincoln), but I do like Lannan in this situation. And finally I'm not sure how COL gets the -170 line, other than they can score well. Tell me if i'm missing something.

Out of the lower rankings I favor MIN rl, TOR, and on the fence with PHI.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #1310

Capskip, I'm interested in those o/u's. I like tm tt's as well. Might ckeck into TR's vs tm tt's aswell the next few days.

hart31  I'm on the same play.

 
Captain
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Posted: #1311

lineup for Yankees and Red sox are the same like yesterday ?

No rest players and injuried players ?

 
Legend
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Posted: #1312
bulichm my o/u are as follows Fla.o61/2,Yanks u91/2,Tex.u91/2,LAA O8,Hou.u9,Stl.o61/2.Something new i have been playing around with to see if i have something good.Bol to all
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1313
----------------- UPDATE IN PROGRESS----------------
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1314

     BOS/CLE   Buchholz 4-0 in gms started on rd.   Masterson 8 of 10 gms started they lost by 4 or more pts.

     NYY/BAL   Sabathia gave up 11 hits and 3 runs 1st go around. He has won every gm vs BAL (last 10) clear back to CLE starts except 1 by 3 pts. or more which was a loss.

     SEA/TEX   Snell mostly a 4-5 inn pitcher (road), all starts vs better teams, all losses by 1-2 pts except a 2-9 loss to TEX. Wilson is giving up hits in recent gms to better hitting clubs.

     PIT/WAS   Lincoln won 5 of 6 triple a starts. PIT is probablly going to let him get his head kicked in on the road. Lannan 3 gms started at home all 1 pt victories.

HOU/COL   Paulino #'s look good, pitched 2 8 inn 4&5 hit gms last 2 starts. Cook no home record vs losing teams, also has not pitched many inns lately.

KC/MIN   this gm looks likeit could turn into a high scoring affair.

TOR/TB   Price "does not play well with others" at home, I'm reconcidering my TOR lean earlier.

FLA/PHI   I like both pitchers. But the score could get much higher in PHI.

 
Legend
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Posted: #1315
 bulichm
 
Legend
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Posted: #1316
So far in that o/u test run since started 6-5-10 i ended up 18-8-1.Will see how it goes.Cap
 
Prospect
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Posted: #1317
If I don't get up by 5 am , I don't have enough time to cap or do much posting. Unless like yesterday some of my work gets put off for a day (construction). Otherwise it's either long days or days off,the joys of self-employment. Gotta go.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #1318
                                          IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
SF:100.5 R Wellemeyer(3-5, 5.72 ERA)56/1.52 1.23 2.78  L1 6-4
CIN: 100.6 R Leake (5-0, 2.22 ERA)     73/1.23 1.56 4.52 W1 4-6 +0.1
12:35 ET 5-10 mph from W/NW, out towards CField, 84°F, 20% rain
SD: 102.1 R Latos (5-4, 3.26 ERA)       66/1.06 0.99 2.36  L1 6-4
NYM: 103.6 L Santana (4-2, 2.76 ERA)78/1.15 1.48 3.70 W4 6-4 +1.5
1:10 ET 5-10 mph from W/SW, out towards RField, 69°F, 20% rain
DET: 99.3 R Scherzer (2-5, 6.66 ERA) 52/1.65 1.29 3.07  L1 5-5 +1.7
CHW: 97.6 L Danks (4-5, 3.60 ERA)   70/1.27 1.40 4.03 W1 4-6
2:05 ET ~10 mph from East, out towards RField, 20% rain
CHC:99.3 R Dempster (4-5, 3.76 ERA)83/1.11 1.28 3.97 W1 4-6 +3.5
MIL: 95.8 R Bush (1-5, 4.97 ERA)        58/1.66 1.45 5.32  L1 3-7
2:10 ET 5-10 mph from E/NE, blows from L to R, 70°F
HOU: 99.3 R Oswalt (3-8, 3.22 ERA)   78/1.11 1.47 4.61 W2 7-3
COL: 100.6 R Chacin (3-4, 3.77 ERA)  43/1.23 1.18 3.26  L2 4-6 +1.3
3:10 ET 10-20 mph from East, out towards Center/Right, 80°F
LAA: 101.4 R Santana (6-3, 3.29 ERA)  82/1.27 1.52 4.45 W1 8-2 +0.8
OAK: 100.6 R Cahill (4-2, 3.21 ERA)    47/1.20 1.32 3.84  L1 4-6
3:35 ET 10-15 mph from NW, blows L to R out to RField, 65°F
ATL: 100.4 R Hanson (6-3, 3.71 ERA) 70/1.29 1.24 2.94  L1 6-4 +0.8
ARI: 99.6 L Willis (1-0, 0.00 ERA)        06/1.50 1.68 6.18 W1 4-6
3:40 ET Roof should be closed. Dont quote me on that...

 
Veteran
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Posted: #1319
I'll be back in a few hours to post the rest of the games...
 
Legend
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Posted: #1320

So far today the o/u test run is 21-9-2 so who knows.Anyway to start off today Rocks ml,u81/2,and o8 in Angel game.They are my day game picks just IMO.Till later Cap

 
Legend
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Posted: #1321
Rest of todays plays Rays,Nats,Phils,all ml.Rangers,Twins both rl.For the o/u plays Nats o81/2,Phils o6,Angels o8,Yanks u91/2,Tex. u10,also early game which has already started,but needs to be included for my records was Padres o61/2.Bol to everyone. Cap
 
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Posted: #1322
7pm ET              IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
PIT: 96.9 L Duke (3-6, 5.43 ERA)         69/1.69 1.27 3.58  L4 3-7
WSH:100 R Hernandz (4-3, 2.22 ERA)73/1.18 1.29 3.02 W2 4-6 +3.1
10-15 mph from W/NW, out towards CF, 86°F
FLA: 99.6 R Johnson (6-2, 2.10 ERA)  77/1.08 1.25 2.81  L4 4-6
PHI: 100.7 R Halladay (8-3, 2.03 ERA)93/1.03 1.29 3.03 W1 4-6 +1.1
10-15 mph from W/NW, Left to RField, 83°F
NYY: 102.3 R Burnett (6-3, 3.72 ERA)77/1.33 1.41 4.94 W3 8-2 +5.6
BAL: 96.7 R Arrieta (0-0, 0.00 ERA)    00/0.00 1.54 4.66  L2 1-9
10-20 mph from W/NW, Left to RField, 86°F
BOS: 102.4 L Lester (7-2, 2.73 ERA)  79/1.13 1.31 4.15  L1 7-3 +5.8
CLE: 96.6 R Talbot (7-4, 3.54 ERA)    73/1.29 1.71 4.95 W1 4-6
<10 mph from NW, IN from LEFT field, 74°F, 20% rain
SD: 102.1 R Garland (6-3, 2.68 ERA)  74/1.30 0.99 2.36  L1 5-5
NYM: 103.6 L Niese (2-2, 4.28 ERA)  48/1.68 1.48 3.70 W4 6-4 +1.5
5-10 mph from NW, Left to RField, 73°F, 30% rain
TOR: 101.3 L Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA)   57/1.01 1.32 3.89  L3 5-5 +1.3
TB: 100.0 R Davis (5-5, 5.03 ERA)    59/1.53 1.09 2.93 W3 6-4
91°F roof should be up...
 
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Posted: #1323
8pm ET              IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
SEA:97.2 RRwldSmth(0-4,6.65ERA) 46/1.70 1.35 4.62  L2 4-6
TEX: 101.4 R Hunter (1-0, 1.00 ERA)09/0.56 1.29 3.24 W2 6-4 +4.2
10-15 mph from S, IN from RField, 90°F, 30% rain
KC: 99.8 L Chen (2-0, 2.95 ERA)      18/1.42 1.34 3.66  L2 3-7
MIN: 101.8 R Baker (5-4, 4.52 ERA) 73/1.33 1.15 2.97 W2 6-4 +2.0
10-20 mph From E/SE, IN from CField, 66°F, scattered storms
 
Captain
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Posted: #1324
Yankees, Boston ML Parlay again ?
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #1325
Quote Originally Posted by GrandMasterAL:

7pm ET              IP/WHIP/BWHIP/BERA/Strk/L10/Advantage
PIT: 96.9 L Duke (3-6, 5.43 ERA)         69/1.69 1.27 3.58  L4 3-7
WSH:100 R Hernandz (4-3, 2.22 ERA)73/1.18 1.29 3.02 W2 4-6 +3.1
10-15 mph from W/NW, out towards CF, 86°F
FLA: 99.6 R Johnson (6-2, 2.10 ERA)  77/1.08 1.25 2.81  L4 4-6
PHI: 100.7 R Halladay (8-3, 2.03 ERA)93/1.03 1.29 3.03 W1 4-6 +1.1
10-15 mph from W/NW, Left to RField, 83°F
NYY: 102.3 R Burnett (6-3, 3.72 ERA)77/1.33 1.41 4.94 W3 8-2 +5.6
BAL: 96.7 R Arrieta (0-0, 0.00 ERA)    00/0.00 1.54 4.66  L2 1-9
10-20 mph from W/NW, Left to RField, 86°F
BOS: 102.4 L Lester (7-2, 2.73 ERA)  79/1.13 1.31 4.15  L1 7-3 +5.8
CLE: 96.6 R Talbot (7-4, 3.54 ERA)    73/1.29 1.71 4.95 W1 4-6
<10 mph from NW, IN from LEFT field, 74°F, 20% rain
SD: 102.1 R Garland (6-3, 2.68 ERA)  74/1.30 0.99 2.36  L1 5-5
NYM: 103.6 L Niese (2-2, 4.28 ERA)  48/1.68 1.48 3.70 W4 6-4 +1.5
5-10 mph from NW, Left to RField, 73°F, 30% rain
TOR: 101.3 L Cecil (6-2, 3.43 ERA)   57/1.01 1.32 3.89  L3 5-5 +1.3
TB: 100.0 R Davis (5-5, 5.03 ERA)    59/1.53 1.09 2.93 W3 6-4
91°F roof should be up...
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