How to hit 70% (or better) in MLB using Teamrankings.com

I am using game 1 and 2 to predict game 3...

I gave you leans based on Home/Away Trends and Greater/Less Ranked teams as we have been doing in this tread (well I have..    everyone else is taking differentials into consideration to determine what games they will look at more closely to put money on.

Waiting til game 3 you would miss out on some of the 80% trend and I am trying to figure out now how we can not miss out on that but I have been busy moving.   

If i follow you trend reds would win the series and after analyse pitchers , reds would win tonight and loose after.

Toronto would win tonight tonight.

Nats would win tonight and lost after

Phllies would win tonight and i think win after

Dodgers would lost tonight and Win after

Florida would win tonight and perhaps win after.

Braves would win tonight and lost after

Rays would win tonight and lost after

i play regarding your trend

 

your predictions for game 2 tonight is only your odds.

for exemple when you tell phillies would win tonight is only cause halladay

But when you tell Pittsburgh would win tonight i don't understand cause Morton will pitch tonight so why Pitt ( Less ranked team)?

reds won first game ( Less ranked team) and tonight i see reds win again and Lost the last game but they would win the series

Cards RL POD

With you on Cards.Also smaller plays on Bos.,Tex.,SD.Bol to all.

Just because a Less or High ranked team wins game 1 and 2 doesnt mean they will lose game 3... less ranked or hi ranked can win all 3...

The trend would be super easy if it went like that...    But it is easier if the less ranked or high ranked teams split game 1 and 2 ..ya know?

 

yes i understand

but your predictions for game 2 tonight is not based on the first game

reds won first game and tonight you see pittsburgh win and so reds win the 3rd game so LLL

Me i see reds win tonight and lost the 3rd game ( cause pitchers tonight better for reds  and better pitts pitchers for the 3rd game

So it would be LGL ( reds win series ) 80% cause Reds less ranked team won first game

me i understand that a less ranked team who win the first game got 80% to win series

And the higher ranked team who win the first game got 78.8% to win the series

is that ?

S reds who won the first game got 80% to win the series but there are 2 games again so reds would won game 2 or game 3 but which one

for me the game 2 is for the reds

and game 3 for the pitts i tell it cause i look at pitchers

hey there sixten,
first off i wanted to say you and everyone contributing to this thread are doing an AWESOME job and i definitely trust what you guys are doing..i really think you got something going on that is really good and i want to thank you for sharing this with all of us here at covers...i know nabil started this thread but he has been MIA for a bit....
i usually dont post cuz i dont want to clog up the thread but today i think i wanted to drop my 2 cents....
this is more of a question than a statement but did toronto really fit the system today? i tailed bllindly today since i had school and golf to take care of and noticed that it seems like TODAY you guys kinda didnt follow the system and went with a FADE, a dice-k fade...if im not mistaking the PR showed that TB and STL were the top plays....i dont study the PR as much as you guys but it seems like you just kinda of talked yourself into making TOR your POd...if im wrong im sorry but it seems like the +5 or more PR teams which were tb and st. louis today and even with a lot of juice they should of been the POD IMO....
i guess what im getting at is i would really appreciate if you guys sticked to the system than a DICE-K fade or fade anyone play...i trail blindly a lot because i know you guys do your hw and your record speaks for itself...obviously i should of read the whole thread but i know if i was home in front of a computer i would of just bet the cards and tb instead of cards and tor....
i hope i didnt offend you cuz that is not my intension at all, you do a great job and i hope u keep posting your pods...i enjoy this thread and i hope we can keep cashing tickets....
please let me know if i am wrong and it actually was the BEST system play of the day...

Thanks for the input - no offense taken.  I hope you don't take any from the following...

The PR is simply used to narrow down the choices of games to take & then dissect each based on a ton of other info & make the best choice for a POD.  We don't simply go by +5 or better as the PR ratings are leveling off - it's preferable, but at this point we're just looking for a significant difference.  Otherwise, there'd be stretches where there's just one or two teams to choose between.  Also, just because a game has a huge PR difference doesn't mean it's the right choice.  You have to look at pitching matchups, injuries, weather, streaks, lineups, split stats, etc.

If it wasn't what I thought was the best POD, I wouldn't have dropped $$$ on it myself or labeled it my POD.  I explained in detail why I thought TOR was the best play in a bunch of posts and STL was close behind - so I played both.  Fading Dice-K was just a piece of the puzzle.  Also, not everyone in this thread follows my plays...we sometimes differ on our POD's.  There's no guarantee in the gambling world no matter what system is being used, and tailing something blindly isn't exactly the smartest way to build a bankroll.  Sorry you lost money tonight, but we've been pretty profitable overall.  The same thought process that got you fired up enough to tell us how to keep the thread going is the same that's gotten a bunch of people on board and in the green.  Feel free to keep checking in - but you should do a little more homework in at least reading the reasons why we're making our picks and make sure you're confident in the ones you're tailing.

We're far from pros - just a bunch of people exchanging info and opinions for the same goal:

gotcha
i agree, we are all here to make
once again thanks for all the hard work and input you do for this thread!
keep up the great work!

glad i took rays RL. jays don't look good vs any AL east team.

any word about totals formula Nable was talking about- this article might help- from covers

https://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=187011&t=0

7-7 on my leans for game 2...    Thats why i did not wanna post...

GAME 3 DAY GAME 3 DAY GAME 3 DAY

And in the NL we have 5 outta 8 that followed the trend last night, this is what I am workin on to fix...   missed out on a bunch.

CIN/PIT - CIN (Less); CIN (Great); PIT TODAY (Less)

WAS/NYM - WAS(Less); NYM (great); WAS TODAY

FLA/CHC - FLA(Great); FLA(G); FLA  followed the trend

ATL/MIL - ATL (G); ATL(G); ATL followed the trend

PHI/COL - PHI (G); PHI(g)   PHI followed the trend

LAD/AZ - LAD (L); LAD(L)   LAD followed the trend

AL

TOR/BOS - BOS (L); BOS (L) BOS followed the trend

TAM/LAA - LAA (L); TB(G) LAA to win game 3

14 series we are lookin at (is DET/NYY still on a 4 game or did they shorten to 3 after the rain)

11 series should follow the trend for 80%   5 already have ....  

 

IF a less ranked team wins the 1st 2 games... I dont play game 3...there are times where less or hi ranked teams wins all 3...cant predict that... happens a couple times in each series... sometimes alot (look at last series)   Was crunchin numbers on that last night, will post later...didnt really find any strong trends in it.

Did PHI play last night, I checked my pager and it gave me a score to the game ...   now the message is erased.   But here it says it was rained out...

Guess that leaves 4 outta 8 teams last night followed the trend.

leaves 7 outta 10 series to follow the trend today (unless PHI is not gonna make it up)

HART31..if you would have just followed the system last night I think you should have netted 1.5 units so that isnt bad...4-3

Another trend that hit the other day...   LEFTY vs LEFTY in AL

 

TX vs OAK   tonite...    14-4 on the under

Looks like POD is down to 2 teams.SLC,or TBR.Some early games i am playing(not system plays)are Brewers,Minn.,and Cinn.Bol to all 

We're at the first bump in the road...sucks, but we're still 15-7.  Time to turn it around...

TB @ LAA  +5.9
Price (L) 4-1, 1.91, 0.99, .187 vs Weaver (R) 4-1, 2.66, 1.05, .220

*Teams split first two games.

ATL @ MIL  +4.9
Lowe (R) 4-3, 6.16, 1.66, .293 vs Gallardo (R) 4-2, 3.07, 1.34, .229

*ATL won first two games - Braun out for MIL yesterday & again today.  Day game.

STL vs HOU  +3.7
Lohse (R) 0-2, 5.45, 1.52, .303 vs Rodriguez (L) 1-4, 4.59, 1.62, .333

*HOU won Game 1.

FLA @ CUBS  +3.3
Silva (R) 3-0, 3.50, 1.17, .254 vs Volstad (R) 3-2, 4.12, 1.07, .207

*FLA won first two games.  Day game.

LAA in the middle of the pack against lefties - .248, 9 HR.  They've beaten Price up the two times they've seen him (but that was early in his rookie year), while Weaver has tamed the Rays over 4 career starts (3-0, 2.77, 0.96, .200).  Tough call here.

MIL is favored in the pitching matchup, and I'm not sure I feel comfortable picking ATL to complete the sweep behind Lowe even with Braun out.  Over his career, Lowe's numbers are a bit worse during the day (last year 2-3, 5.73, 1.67, .329).  Gallardo was much better during the day last year (5-6, 2.47, 1.24, .210) than night (8-6, 4.85, 1.38, .226).  He's also 2-0 over 3 career starts vs ATL with a 0.81 ERA.  Can't back ATL here.

STL should bounce back.  The pitching matchup features two guys the NL has been teeing off of so far this year.  Rodriguez is 3-10 over 15 career starts vs STL with a 4.17/1.17/.252 line and has already dropped a game in STL this year (4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K).  Lohse sucks overall, but he's much better at home this year.  In 3 starts, he's 0-1 but has a 2.70/0.95/.239 line including a tough loss to HOU where he tossed 7 innings giving up just 2 ER/5 H/0 BB.  Advantage STL here.

Volstad is having a solid year for FLA.  His ERA is inflated from 1 rough outing @ COL (4.1 IP, 7 ER) but he hasn't given up more than 3 runs in his 5 other starts.  His WHIP & BAA are outstanding & he has a 2.81/1.01/.223 line in 4 career starts vs CHC.  Silva has come back down to earth his past couple starts (10 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 4 HR, 4 BB, 9 K) and remember, this is the same guy that still sports a 4.68/1.40/.303 line over 301 career games.  Looks like FLA all the way here until you look at the team's batting stats during the day.  CHC score almost 6 runs/game & hit .287 while FLA sports a 3.7 runs/game average & .239 BA.  Think I'll avoid this one too.

 

 

Not even close, bud

My total formula is based on an entirely different approach.

The play for last night was San Diego/ San Francisco under 7.5

A winner

The formula is 8-1 for the year so far : 4-0 playing the over and 4-1 playing the under. 

Playing the over is the way to go which makes sense : there is a lot more room playing the over and you don't have to wait until the end of the game to find out whether you won or not. Also, if the teams go overtime, the overtime will only help the over and never the under.

I usually wait until the first week of June before I start using this approach. Another 2 weeks to go

Patience, patience

 

My POD:  STL RL