There is a current advantage to
wagering against teams playing their fourth game in a five night span
without rest [ LA CLIPS] when their opponent is rested [Gold State] . As the season has worn on
this trend has gotten better and better. If you were to blindly bet
against teams playing their fourth game in five nights without rest
versus a team that did not play the previous night you would be 12-9 ATS
on the season, but most recently you would have won nine of your last
11 wagers as of December 29.
There is a current advantage to
wagering against teams playing their fourth game in a five night span
without rest [ LA CLIPS] when their opponent is rested [Gold State] . As the season has worn on
this trend has gotten better and better. If you were to blindly bet
against teams playing their fourth game in five nights without rest
versus a team that did not play the previous night you would be 12-9 ATS
on the season, but most recently you would have won nine of your last
11 wagers as of December 29.
This thread was a good one today after a losing day yesterday. Unfortunately I bet tomorrow there will be a ton more garbage posts after a winning day today.
Love that the two picks you chose I agreed on and won. With two of my own still pending with spurs-13.5 and warriors +6. Hoping for a 4-0 day!
This thread was a good one today after a losing day yesterday. Unfortunately I bet tomorrow there will be a ton more garbage posts after a winning day today.
Love that the two picks you chose I agreed on and won. With two of my own still pending with spurs-13.5 and warriors +6. Hoping for a 4-0 day!
trust me Mavin....You taught me something else that helped me more then anything. Like last night when I didnt put the time in and finally had a losing day( 2-3), it really reiterated about how hard I have to work for this. Mavin you are a truly sincere and hardworking and thats awesome. On the inside you are extremely nice and helpful and on the outside tough enough to not let much get to you...including people, questions and in some ways results. Thank you so much, again........You really are a true ambassador of this role.
trust me Mavin....You taught me something else that helped me more then anything. Like last night when I didnt put the time in and finally had a losing day( 2-3), it really reiterated about how hard I have to work for this. Mavin you are a truly sincere and hardworking and thats awesome. On the inside you are extremely nice and helpful and on the outside tough enough to not let much get to you...including people, questions and in some ways results. Thank you so much, again........You really are a true ambassador of this role.
skaka...congrats buddy that is awesome and I am happy for you
stocktrader....congrats and I hope you end up hitting the last 2, I will be rooting for you
and nice stat sysplayer...that is interesting for sure but makes sense and thats where really digging deep into games comes in handy. Thats why Mavin is the best because he realizes those certain things. Like for example when he was talking about Cleveland he was certainly right b4...the reason i chose houston (and he ended up too) was houstons dominance at the end of games and the run they have been on. But digging deep sometimes you find dumb stats (which can be coincidence)....and important stats that can true effects on games....rest has true effects on games....
skaka...congrats buddy that is awesome and I am happy for you
stocktrader....congrats and I hope you end up hitting the last 2, I will be rooting for you
and nice stat sysplayer...that is interesting for sure but makes sense and thats where really digging deep into games comes in handy. Thats why Mavin is the best because he realizes those certain things. Like for example when he was talking about Cleveland he was certainly right b4...the reason i chose houston (and he ended up too) was houstons dominance at the end of games and the run they have been on. But digging deep sometimes you find dumb stats (which can be coincidence)....and important stats that can true effects on games....rest has true effects on games....
Like I said earlier I saw a lot of inflated lines today. Which made me have to think alot because sometimes it has adverse effects on my choice towards a certain game. Is it public, injury, teh score of a teams last game, a bait by the books....you really have to look deep to figure certain things out.
Like I said earlier I saw a lot of inflated lines today. Which made me have to think alot because sometimes it has adverse effects on my choice towards a certain game. Is it public, injury, teh score of a teams last game, a bait by the books....you really have to look deep to figure certain things out.
Interested late thoughts before last game. Late public money coming ing on Golden State, yet line is going up (-6.5).
Total has held at 202.
Leaning more LA at this point, then under. Deciding if there is a play soon.
Line movements say Under and the Clips. My intuition says Clips were not supposed to cover last night and now have to pay for that. And still under. I'm staying away. GL whatever you choose
Quote Originally Posted by Old-Jax:
Interested late thoughts before last game. Late public money coming ing on Golden State, yet line is going up (-6.5).
Total has held at 202.
Leaning more LA at this point, then under. Deciding if there is a play soon.
Line movements say Under and the Clips. My intuition says Clips were not supposed to cover last night and now have to pay for that. And still under. I'm staying away. GL whatever you choose
That is another thing Mavin is the best at (certainly better then me). He is very good at critiquing why a line is at the number it is. Sometimes i base a lot of stuff off of feel (knowledge of players, positions, coaching, recent games) and mix that with the lines, past history, stats, averages and then make a choice. Even then I look at my body of work and decide...Is this enough to make me believe this team will cover??
That is another thing Mavin is the best at (certainly better then me). He is very good at critiquing why a line is at the number it is. Sometimes i base a lot of stuff off of feel (knowledge of players, positions, coaching, recent games) and mix that with the lines, past history, stats, averages and then make a choice. Even then I look at my body of work and decide...Is this enough to make me believe this team will cover??
If golden state line was more like +3 I would stay away, but +6.5 just provides too much value for this team on rest against the clips they've already proven they can beat at home and the road. Certainly not guaranteeing a win, but there is too much value there for me to avoid
If golden state line was more like +3 I would stay away, but +6.5 just provides too much value for this team on rest against the clips they've already proven they can beat at home and the road. Certainly not guaranteeing a win, but there is too much value there for me to avoid
Ok, thanks melos, thanks everyone. Let's all calm down - wish the good luck for the rest of the games and move on calmly to tomorrow's card. No rush. Patience and self control. Money management. Tomorrow starts from 0-0. Remember that and do not hurry sending the books what was earned today. Easy really does it in this business. And as business it should be treated if we wanna succeed. I will recap the record of the day after GB win. So long!
Ok, thanks melos, thanks everyone. Let's all calm down - wish the good luck for the rest of the games and move on calmly to tomorrow's card. No rush. Patience and self control. Money management. Tomorrow starts from 0-0. Remember that and do not hurry sending the books what was earned today. Easy really does it in this business. And as business it should be treated if we wanna succeed. I will recap the record of the day after GB win. So long!
One thing that is very important to realize is that Mavin does run this thread. In other words when he tells me to stop doing something I take it for what it is. We want this to be like a community where everyone is able to give picks and more importantly elaborate on your picks to help others. It's not like everyone that posts their picks doesnt know what they are doing and even Mavin himself can learn, I mean we all can. With that being said the persons picks to follow are definitely mavins because he has the most solid past, record, experience and inside information. Don't praise someone when you use his picks and win, to just turn around and get mad when you lose or when he is busy. He is busy for the exact questions you want the answers to. Mavin is incredibly patient with everyone and I'm not trying to speak for him, rather just giving my take on how we should all work together, win together and be happy together. If someone fades me on a pick or if someone picks differently for me, I dont get mad, I get interested. Interested into what i missed with the pick and why he likes it. There is no need to be hostile and argumentative. We all get mad when we lose sometimes (i know I do lol) but if we can help each other out and be positive with each other, we can all figure out ways to get more money and stay happy. THATS WHY MAN U ALWAYS SAYS BOL TO EVERYONE....because it doesn't matter if your opinion is different then mine ....and everyone is here on this thread because your looking for picks and to become a better handicapper. Well, if we all stay patient I believe we all can become better, I know from Mavins help that I already have. BOL TO EVERYONE ON THEIR PICKS....
One thing that is very important to realize is that Mavin does run this thread. In other words when he tells me to stop doing something I take it for what it is. We want this to be like a community where everyone is able to give picks and more importantly elaborate on your picks to help others. It's not like everyone that posts their picks doesnt know what they are doing and even Mavin himself can learn, I mean we all can. With that being said the persons picks to follow are definitely mavins because he has the most solid past, record, experience and inside information. Don't praise someone when you use his picks and win, to just turn around and get mad when you lose or when he is busy. He is busy for the exact questions you want the answers to. Mavin is incredibly patient with everyone and I'm not trying to speak for him, rather just giving my take on how we should all work together, win together and be happy together. If someone fades me on a pick or if someone picks differently for me, I dont get mad, I get interested. Interested into what i missed with the pick and why he likes it. There is no need to be hostile and argumentative. We all get mad when we lose sometimes (i know I do lol) but if we can help each other out and be positive with each other, we can all figure out ways to get more money and stay happy. THATS WHY MAN U ALWAYS SAYS BOL TO EVERYONE....because it doesn't matter if your opinion is different then mine ....and everyone is here on this thread because your looking for picks and to become a better handicapper. Well, if we all stay patient I believe we all can become better, I know from Mavins help that I already have. BOL TO EVERYONE ON THEIR PICKS....
oh,garbage!!!sorry melos,i jinxed your clean sweep by sayin i like all your tips except maybe utah....dat can happen to the best of 'em in denver.i shall not do it again,haha...
awesome nite from u tho melos!!! seriously,love your insights and views.u and mavin shall b unstoppable together with co-operation and discipline
oh,garbage!!!sorry melos,i jinxed your clean sweep by sayin i like all your tips except maybe utah....dat can happen to the best of 'em in denver.i shall not do it again,haha...
awesome nite from u tho melos!!! seriously,love your insights and views.u and mavin shall b unstoppable together with co-operation and discipline
Old-Jax, great call on New Orleans. I totally misread it. Didnt play the game but thought Dallas would start geling with Dirk. I did play your Denver pick and all of Mavins. Thanks to you both!
Old-Jax, great call on New Orleans. I totally misread it. Didnt play the game but thought Dallas would start geling with Dirk. I did play your Denver pick and all of Mavins. Thanks to you both!