Clips are 4-5 ATS with zero rest. Teams without rest are way too unpredictable. Fade them or don't bet them is the general rule.
Sure, you could win that bet. But, the whole idea of managing your money properly is always looking for the best spots to put it... that's not one of them.
Maybe so but i feel they lost the game last night cuz they were looking forward to the OKC game tonight
Quote Originally Posted by newty25:
Clips are 4-5 ATS with zero rest. Teams without rest are way too unpredictable. Fade them or don't bet them is the general rule.
Sure, you could win that bet. But, the whole idea of managing your money properly is always looking for the best spots to put it... that's not one of them.
Maybe so but i feel they lost the game last night cuz they were looking forward to the OKC game tonight
Two teams that have a history of playing low scoring games vs. each other may be in line for another one Tuesday. The 76ers are playing the second of a back-to-back after hosting San Antonio back home in Philadelphia on Monday night, while the Bucks are returning home from a four-game road trip with the last three games being on the West Coast, wrapping up in Portland on Saturday.
It has been a struggle for the 76ers offensively this season as they rank 27th in the NBA in scoring at 93.2 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting, and they have been especially dreadful vs. fellow conference opponents, averaging 91.5 points vs. their Eastern Conference foes. Philadelphia won its last conference game 108-101 in overtime over Toronto on Friday in a game that was tied 96-96 at the end of regulation time, meaning that the Sixers have still reached 100 points during regulation only three times vs. conference opponents in 21 such games all season! Furthermore, Philadelphia is averaging only 90.1 points on the road where their shooting percentage drops to 43.6 percent. They are tied for 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency with the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves at 99.7 points per 100 possessions while ranking 23rd with a pace rating of 93.0 possessions per game, a combination which is obviously not conducive to a lot of scoring. Moreover, the Sixers are averaging a woeful 88.8 points in six trips to Milwaukee since 2010.
Now the Bucks improved offensively in their first few games after their former defensive minded coach Scott Skiles was fired, but they have regressed a bit lately with the 'under' going 3-2 in their last five games, and they still rank only 15th in the league in scoring at 96.7 points per game despite ranking fourth with a pace rating of 96.9 possessions. The reason for that disconnect is that Milwaukee is simply a bad shooting team this season, ranking 25th in field goal percentage overall and 26th in three-point shooting. Also, the 'under' is 15-10 in all Milwaukee conference games this season including 8-4 here at home. Finally, there is the dynamic of playing the first home game following a road trip vs. the opposite conference, a situation that often leads to lethargic play early on.
The 'under' is a lucrative 10-2 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings overall including a perfect 6-0 in the last six meeting in Milwaukee with those six games averaging only 180.1 combined points. The 'under' is also 6-0-1 in the last seven Philadelphia road games as well as 9-4 in the Bucks' last 13 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.
Pick: UNDER 196.5
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Two teams that have a history of playing low scoring games vs. each other may be in line for another one Tuesday. The 76ers are playing the second of a back-to-back after hosting San Antonio back home in Philadelphia on Monday night, while the Bucks are returning home from a four-game road trip with the last three games being on the West Coast, wrapping up in Portland on Saturday.
It has been a struggle for the 76ers offensively this season as they rank 27th in the NBA in scoring at 93.2 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting, and they have been especially dreadful vs. fellow conference opponents, averaging 91.5 points vs. their Eastern Conference foes. Philadelphia won its last conference game 108-101 in overtime over Toronto on Friday in a game that was tied 96-96 at the end of regulation time, meaning that the Sixers have still reached 100 points during regulation only three times vs. conference opponents in 21 such games all season! Furthermore, Philadelphia is averaging only 90.1 points on the road where their shooting percentage drops to 43.6 percent. They are tied for 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency with the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves at 99.7 points per 100 possessions while ranking 23rd with a pace rating of 93.0 possessions per game, a combination which is obviously not conducive to a lot of scoring. Moreover, the Sixers are averaging a woeful 88.8 points in six trips to Milwaukee since 2010.
Now the Bucks improved offensively in their first few games after their former defensive minded coach Scott Skiles was fired, but they have regressed a bit lately with the 'under' going 3-2 in their last five games, and they still rank only 15th in the league in scoring at 96.7 points per game despite ranking fourth with a pace rating of 96.9 possessions. The reason for that disconnect is that Milwaukee is simply a bad shooting team this season, ranking 25th in field goal percentage overall and 26th in three-point shooting. Also, the 'under' is 15-10 in all Milwaukee conference games this season including 8-4 here at home. Finally, there is the dynamic of playing the first home game following a road trip vs. the opposite conference, a situation that often leads to lethargic play early on.
The 'under' is a lucrative 10-2 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings overall including a perfect 6-0 in the last six meeting in Milwaukee with those six games averaging only 180.1 combined points. The 'under' is also 6-0-1 in the last seven Philadelphia road games as well as 9-4 in the Bucks' last 13 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.
Maybe so but i feel they lost the game last night cuz they were looking forward to the OKC game tonight
That doesn't sound like the healthiest way to handicap games. Numbers and trends are the only tools in your bag unless you're talking directly to the players.
That said, BOL to you and Mavin tonight.
Quote Originally Posted by CP74:
Maybe so but i feel they lost the game last night cuz they were looking forward to the OKC game tonight
That doesn't sound like the healthiest way to handicap games. Numbers and trends are the only tools in your bag unless you're talking directly to the players.
That doesn't sound like the healthiest way to handicap games. Numbers and trends are the only tools in your bag unless you're talking directly to the players.
That said, BOL to you and Mavin tonight.
OKC ATS
OverallHomeAway
24-15-2 14-8 10-7-2
LAC ATS
OverallHomeAway
25-17 15-8 10-9
as well as many other numbers
I was just tryin to give another thought on your fatigue factor theory of back to backs which on most cases absolutely correct
But what I see is Clips ready for this game. Only Griffen played heavy minutes and they lost to a divisional team, they were up 7 after the 3rd and shut it down, why, because they are 7 games up on GS but tied with OKC for 2nd in the conference
Guys please let me know what ya think thats what this forum is for...BOL to all
Quote Originally Posted by newty25:
That doesn't sound like the healthiest way to handicap games. Numbers and trends are the only tools in your bag unless you're talking directly to the players.
That said, BOL to you and Mavin tonight.
OKC ATS
OverallHomeAway
24-15-2 14-8 10-7-2
LAC ATS
OverallHomeAway
25-17 15-8 10-9
as well as many other numbers
I was just tryin to give another thought on your fatigue factor theory of back to backs which on most cases absolutely correct
But what I see is Clips ready for this game. Only Griffen played heavy minutes and they lost to a divisional team, they were up 7 after the 3rd and shut it down, why, because they are 7 games up on GS but tied with OKC for 2nd in the conference
Guys please let me know what ya think thats what this forum is for...BOL to all
I meant fading a team on zero rest that just played on OT game, but I was mistaken... the game yesterday didn't go into OT.
I almost never bet on a team with zero rest and love to fade them. That said, if both teams were rested, I'd be jumping on the Clippers to cover... so I'll just no-bet that game.
The more I look at it, the better the over is looking though.
BUt philly looks like a nice fade
Quote Originally Posted by newty25:
I meant fading a team on zero rest that just played on OT game, but I was mistaken... the game yesterday didn't go into OT.
I almost never bet on a team with zero rest and love to fade them. That said, if both teams were rested, I'd be jumping on the Clippers to cover... so I'll just no-bet that game.
The more I look at it, the better the over is looking though.
The total line in the Bucks game is set so high, no possible iteration wields a probable score over 196. Something smells here, and it's not my cheddar. Still, if everyone's doing it... :P
January 22, Bet 01 UNDER Bucks 49.5 1Q - $239 to win $200
January 22, Bet 02 UNDER Cavaliers 49 1Q - $119 to win $100
Best of luck everyone!
The total line in the Bucks game is set so high, no possible iteration wields a probable score over 196. Something smells here, and it's not my cheddar. Still, if everyone's doing it... :P
January 22, Bet 01 UNDER Bucks 49.5 1Q - $239 to win $200
January 22, Bet 02 UNDER Cavaliers 49 1Q - $119 to win $100
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
I know that this is Mavin's thread but I would like to tell you I would like to see what your doing. I think you have been a positive and insightful contributor to the thread!
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
I know that this is Mavin's thread but I would like to tell you I would like to see what your doing. I think you have been a positive and insightful contributor to the thread!
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
very curious!!
Quote Originally Posted by Zireal:
Last couple of weeks I've spent on making some sort of calculation model based on numbers, statistics, etc.
Mavin, If you don't mind, I could start posting picks according to that model in your thread, so we could find out if it works or not. I'm asking because there will be no write ups behind that picks, only raw numbers...
I know that this is Mavin's thread but I would like to tell you I would like to see what your doing. I think you have been a positive and insightful contributor to the thread!
Quote Originally Posted by eaglequill:
I know that this is Mavin's thread but I would like to tell you I would like to see what your doing. I think you have been a positive and insightful contributor to the thread!
Under 178.5 MEMPHIS Grizzlies - INDIANA Pacers with Under 199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets (+108) 200$
Win 216$
199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets with Under 192 ATLANTA Hawks - MINNESOTA TWolves (+108) 200$
Loss -200$
Under 95.5 Second Half NO Hornets - SACRAMENTO Kings (-110) 110$
Loss -110$
NBA Monday: 2-1 +190$
Parlay Monday: 1-1 +16$
Overall Monday 3-2 +206
Overall NFL 7-7-1 -290 $
Overall Parlays 7-8 +175 $
Overall NBA 48-49-1 -545 $ (37-26 ATS 11-23 Totals)
Overall NCAAF 1-1 -120 $
Overall NCAAB 1-1 -10 $
Overall 64-66-2 -899 $
Started with 2,000 $ Now 1101 $
Seems to me like totals are really weighing you down. Have you ever considered giving up on the totals and concentrating on the sides? I don't bet a lot of totals because I find it much more difficult to be consistent. In fact, tonight is the first NBA total I've bet this season (okc/lac).
Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin:
Under 192.5 (-110) 220$ NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets
Win 200$
BROOKLYN Nets +3.5 (-110) 110$
Win 100$
Under 178.5 MEMPHIS Grizzlies - INDIANA Pacers with Under 199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets (+108) 200$
Win 216$
199.5 NY Knicks - BROOKLYN Nets with Under 192 ATLANTA Hawks - MINNESOTA TWolves (+108) 200$
Loss -200$
Under 95.5 Second Half NO Hornets - SACRAMENTO Kings (-110) 110$
Loss -110$
NBA Monday: 2-1 +190$
Parlay Monday: 1-1 +16$
Overall Monday 3-2 +206
Overall NFL 7-7-1 -290 $
Overall Parlays 7-8 +175 $
Overall NBA 48-49-1 -545 $ (37-26 ATS 11-23 Totals)
Overall NCAAF 1-1 -120 $
Overall NCAAB 1-1 -10 $
Overall 64-66-2 -899 $
Started with 2,000 $ Now 1101 $
Seems to me like totals are really weighing you down. Have you ever considered giving up on the totals and concentrating on the sides? I don't bet a lot of totals because I find it much more difficult to be consistent. In fact, tonight is the first NBA total I've bet this season (okc/lac).
I will be playing the Thunder tonight and Bucks. I am hoping to see the Bucks get to 6 as it is at 6.5 now at my local. Sometimes, I can get good value when fading the home team with the local. The only hesitation on the Bucks is whether they slip up returning home, but they should match up well with Sixers and be able to win this easily with the Sixers coming off a tough game last night.
As or the Thunder, anytime a line moves over the 0, I take note. With the Clippers coming off a tough one yesterday, they are the play here.
I will be playing the Thunder tonight and Bucks. I am hoping to see the Bucks get to 6 as it is at 6.5 now at my local. Sometimes, I can get good value when fading the home team with the local. The only hesitation on the Bucks is whether they slip up returning home, but they should match up well with Sixers and be able to win this easily with the Sixers coming off a tough game last night.
As or the Thunder, anytime a line moves over the 0, I take note. With the Clippers coming off a tough one yesterday, they are the play here.
I pick what I pick - totals and ATS - up to you to consider what you like. I do understand and agree that with only NBA ATS picks I'd be over 57% on my picks (37-26), but the fact is that I did post other picks as well I can't wash my hands from or correct it. Thanks for the support. I appreciate it.
Zireal - whatever you feel like will improve and get you a better results day in day out - go for it. You're doing great and relentless job same as all the friends here contributing everyday. This thread has become a brainstorm of handicapping and has a great value for all who reads it.
Good Luck everyone!
I pick what I pick - totals and ATS - up to you to consider what you like. I do understand and agree that with only NBA ATS picks I'd be over 57% on my picks (37-26), but the fact is that I did post other picks as well I can't wash my hands from or correct it. Thanks for the support. I appreciate it.
Zireal - whatever you feel like will improve and get you a better results day in day out - go for it. You're doing great and relentless job same as all the friends here contributing everyday. This thread has become a brainstorm of handicapping and has a great value for all who reads it.
Ok, then. Some of you probably already noticed that my picks here were only on totals, since I think there is much more room for mathematics, statistics etc. And I also have to admit that my knowledge about NBA players, teams, coaches and who is good and who's not ends somewhere at early '90 and Air Jordan age ;)
But let's go back to business:
This... thing (let's call it "calculation model") applies only on TOTALS. I've got 2 separate tracks that show the result (over or under), but the main pick is made when they match.
I was checking this for last 9 days, and the result was quite acceptable:
Track # one: 32-18 ; track # two: 36-27
Both tracks matched 24 times (18 correct, 6 incorrect) = 75%
Of course I'm fully aware that 9 days of testing is verry short period of time, and it could be just a pure luck. That's why I call it an experiment!
Ok, then. Some of you probably already noticed that my picks here were only on totals, since I think there is much more room for mathematics, statistics etc. And I also have to admit that my knowledge about NBA players, teams, coaches and who is good and who's not ends somewhere at early '90 and Air Jordan age ;)
But let's go back to business:
This... thing (let's call it "calculation model") applies only on TOTALS. I've got 2 separate tracks that show the result (over or under), but the main pick is made when they match.
I was checking this for last 9 days, and the result was quite acceptable:
Track # one: 32-18 ; track # two: 36-27
Both tracks matched 24 times (18 correct, 6 incorrect) = 75%
Of course I'm fully aware that 9 days of testing is verry short period of time, and it could be just a pure luck. That's why I call it an experiment!
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