Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how

Not because LA Clippers shooting over 54% but because of the Magic shooting +46% in the first

Everything ok mavin? You havent talked about the game you put up for discuss anymore and you made a different play (magic fh) with no explanation?

Hey Washead, thanks for the interest. It is always encouraging to the novice initiate to see someone else is intrigued. I come from a banking background so looking for efficiency is in-grained.

Hey Eagle, I don't mind the gunfire. You are totally correct, as a novice basketball observer I had never even thought of those two factors, especially putbacks.I know it is pretty easy to find offensive rebound stats but, what would help me is if you, or anyone else, knows of a website that compiles stats for putbacks on 3 pt attempts or off. rebounds on 3 pt attempts. Thanks.

"OKC -5.5. The league averages for three pointers are 35.5%, 7.2 made, 20.1 attempted. OKC attempts 19.1 a game, below the league average. LAL attempts 25.1 a game, way above the league average. LAL makes 8.9 a game, meaning they can hope to accumulate roughly 27 points off 3 pointers tonight (9 X 3). OKC can hope to make 23 points off 3 pointers (7.6 x 3 = 22.8). That is a 4 point benefit to LAL. Now, look at the wasted possessions. LAL is going to waste 16 possessions, OKC is going to waste 11.5 possessions. That is a 4.7 possession advantage for OKC. OKC hits FG at 47.8%. 4.7 X 47.8% is 2 extra points. So, 4-2 is 2. The Lakers, if all goes according to plan can only hope to gain 2 points by lofting up all those 3 pointers? I don't see the value there. It assumes that the Lakers have to maintain their 35% clip on 3 pointers.

Utah +4.5. Atlanta makes 8.9 a game (26.7 pts) and Utah makes 6.5 a game (19.5 pts). This gives Atl a potential 7.2 advantage. Atl gives away 14.7 possessions a game on missed 3 pts. Utah wastes 11.1 possessions. That is a 3.6 advantage for Utah and they make 44.4% of FG. 3.6 x .444 = 1.59 extra FG made x 2 pts = 3. Atlanta, assuming both teams hit at their averages is only gaining four points from all their 3 pointers. And they are giving away -4.5 pts in the spread.

GS -7.5. I would be most worried about this one based on the big spread. But, in this case Golden State would actually come out ahead in the calculation. I won't go through the above calculations again but, GS is actually going to gain points on Portland despite attempting 3.6 less 3 pointers. Attempting less, giving away less possessions and still getting more points, that's what I am looking for"

The above picks are the ones I was looking at yesterday. I am not betting on these at this point, just tracking/observing. I have to say, so far in my basketball betting experience I have watched three games start to finish: Thursdays Kings game, last nights Utah game and the GS game. All three I had an interest in, tailing Mavin on the Kings and watching the latter two for my 3 pt theory. In all three cases the team I was rooting for had at least a 15 point lead late in the 3rd quarter. And I mean late, like 2 minutes to go in the third. And all three had atrocious 4th quarters. Makes me wonder why any b-ball fan watches the first 3 quarters - just tune in for the fourth. Anyway, small sample size, I can't imagine this is always the case, just thought it was a strange coincidence.

As for the games last night, OKC was an easy winner. I feel good about the Utah game. They had a 17 point lead with 2:10 to go in the 3rd quarter. Atlanta made what I can only imagine is a remarkable comeback - for those watching the game, the Atlanta commentators were in shock at their own teams performance. Plus, Atlanta shot 47% from 3 point range. Which is absurd considering their season average is only 37% - that seems like a huge outlier. So, I will chalk that up to a tough loss. When it comes to the GS game, I guess I was right to be worried about the big line. They also collapsed in the fourth but, I saw no other reason than a team at home, with a big lead, slowing down with a win in their pocket. Chalk that up to avoiding big lines (maybe over 6?).

Tonight's games:

I see three more worth paying attention to.

Phi -1. Philly attempts 9 fewer three pointers a game than Houston and they hit at the same percentage. This is very similar to the stats for Houston - Boston last night, which I stayed away from. I won't do the same here. I think this is what I am looking for. Two teams who are equal at doing something that is not overly successful (35%) yet, Philly is wise enough to do it 9 fewer times a game.

Chi -8.5. Similar to last nights GS game, the spread is a little big, so maybe this is the kind of game I will avoid in the future. But, Chicago attempts 5 fewer three pointers a game and they hit them at a higher percentage - this is exactly the formula I was originally looking for when I thought of this. Again, the spread is worrisome but, we are just tracking here.

Memphis -1.5. Memphis attempts 5 fewer three point shots a game then Dallas and they hit at almost the same ratio (Mem 34.8%, Dal 35.1). Again, like the Chicago game, this may be a reach. The reason being, originally I was looking for one team that was above the league average of 20.1 attempts and one that was below. In this case both teams are below the league average. However, the disparity is still five, so I will track this one as well. This game would also be one where I am not sure how to apply situation stuff - being that Memphis won an emotional home overtime game last night.

Thanks to you Mavin for setting us on the right path!

 

Putting two out there now. Watching football so not much to write about. 

Ok, as disappointing as it is to be down at the very beginning of the evening - there are always two possibilities: to give up on the night and quit for the rest of the day,  or get down on the games as if nothing happened and continue capping. you already know what is my choice out of those two. But beforehand I want to remind you that what we have accomplished here is quite odd: we have number of handicappers with great potential that are starting to show their abilities and you all know those who in orderly fashion post their plays with argumentation, recap it and post the daily and overall record in orderly fashion as well on a daily basis.  Pay close attention to their picks and get better all the time

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You havent been so hot with totals but im backign you here for 2 units.

Paul George being out make a difference? Is play still over? Line at 185 now.

just read on nba.com that bobcats hav lost the 1st quarter by 6 or more points in their last 4 games and 8 out of their last 9!!!that seems quite compelling,im gonna get on it....just thought u mite b interested

Jan 12, - Bet 03

What about the public supporting the Rockets and the line change 2 points to be 76ers -1?