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follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

thanks Dep... pretty much figuring when SD St can blow you out, everyone can blow you out... not anyone... everyone...
 
 
 
trying to narrow down my ML card for this week... here are some candidates...
 
Temple, Nebraska, Colorado, Ariz St, SD St, Toledo, UTEP, Rice, Oregon
 
 
 
i'm sure very few people liked my Houson ML pick last week... but if you remember my argument, SD St and Oregon both fit the same role...
 
 
which leads me to this... i apologize for the Toledo pick last week... i fucked up... i've been scratching my head baffled about that game and just realized yesterday that Toledo was in the same position as ECU last week, coming off of a loss that ended a legitimate BCS game possibility, AND the loss was in OT, AND they were now laying DD the following week... the exact same reasons i used to bet Houston on the ML are the reasons i should have been nowhere near Toledo... i don't know how i missed that...
 
so my bad on that one... can't offer any refunds though...

I liked Houston myself, but once I saw your write up, I added the ML bet too!  Easiest game of the week!  thx bro 

and yes, K.ST can cover the 6 easily!  I remember last year, they were only catching 8 vs Mizzou and it seemed fishy....well it didn't cover, but only bc of a bunch of goofy plays.  Anyways, if that shit team can cover 8 vs Mizzou last year, then they can and will win SU vs T. tech this year. just my opionion 

 
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Posted: #77
Been to every Nebraska game this year, they have NO chance against Mizzu !!  None !! 
And yes I love the  Nebraska Cornhuskers, but with  on the line, gotta be honest.
 
Nebraska's defense cannot stop Mizzu, do not let the fact that Mizzu has not won in Lincoln since 1978 deceive you.  Public is right this time.
 
Just my 2cents,,,,BOL all !!!  
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Wizard41:

Would not touch Duke...Paul Johnson is the real deal at Ga Tech (watched him dominate at Navy) and they blew the doors of Miss. St as 9 point favorite.
 
Duke beat a god awful Virginia team that has scored 36 points all year.  Duke is 1-24 in its last 25 ACC games
 
I favor Ga tech here.

Duke was outgained 304-258...completely shutdown by VA!  only reason they won like they did, was bc of 6 Va TO's....

Not only am I prob playing GT this week, but may take a stab at Va +13 and ML....why not?

 
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Posted: #79
regarding tonights game... wait until 30 minutes or so before gametime and bet the under...
 
sharp... i don't know if you've watched K St this year... but they are a fade team for sure... the problem is their defense and specifically their defensive coordinator...
 
against Louisville they got eaten alive by a team that was struggling on offense... why?  because they spent every single down (not 1 exception) in man-to-man coverage... Hunter Cantwell picked them apart...
 
i've been waiting for the Big 12 schedule to start every since that K St - Louisville game... after that game i said i spotted a great angle... i think you were one of the people who asked what it is... it's not complicated... the angle is, bet against K St anytime they play against a potent passing game... very simple... they can't stop anyone...
 
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Posted: #80
NEVADA SOUNDS GOOD AGAINST A PRETTY SHITTY IDAHO TEAM. BUT IM PROBABLY NOT GONNA PULLEN THE TRIGGER ON THAT ONE. I HATE THE LINE. IM PLAYING KANSAS -13. YOU SHOULD TAKE A LOOK AT THE TULSA/RICE OVER. ITS AN EVERY YEAR THING. IM WAITING ON SOME LINES. BUT IM ON THE TEXAS TECH/KANSAS STATE OVER AS WELL. BOL THIS WEEK. GET THAT PAPER.
 
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Posted: #81
Rolling with you for 5th straight Shep...Good Luck Bro
 
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Posted: #82
Just added this 10 point teaser, seems like very easy money.

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Date Team Line

10/04/08 TennesseeU -5.5

10/04/08 PennSt -3

10/04/08 TexasTech +2.5


 
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Posted: #83
 
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Posted: #84
looking to narrow down these ML bets a bit more... anyone have any thoughts?  or other strong ML feelings?
 
also, what do people think of Minnesota?  i was probably gonna pass on this one, but the line at my book is under 7... am i missing something?  Indiana is awful, and Minnesota has played tough every game...
 
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Posted: #85
oops... forgot to list the ML possibilities...
 
Temple (+250), Nebraska (+340), Colorado (+575), Ariz St (+345), Toledo (+280), UTEP (+265), Rice (+500), Oregon (no line???... bastards!), Rutgers (+460)
 
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Posted: #86

strongest feelings i have are on Ariz St, UTEP and Oregon...

my other option would be to just run a 2-team ML parlay on Tx Tech and Minnesota, which would pay around even money...

 
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Posted: #87
appreciate all the feedback guys... much love!
 
except for the haters... much hate!
 
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Posted: #88
how bout UNC this week. I really like UNC to pull away late vs a Uconn team that is banged up. Unc comes off a big win, and now returns home to play a Uconn team that is starting a QB (Frazier) who is making his first ever college start. Tough first start.
 
Zach graduated from the same High School as me, and i know Zach personally. Trust me when i tell you guys that UNC will make it real tough for him to be successful.
 
Take UNC -6.5 (LARGE)
 
 
 
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Posted: #89
I'VE BEEN CAPPING FOR MANY YEARS NOW. YOUR PICKS ARE NO JOKE. IM ON: UTAH, TENN, TOL. ANY THOUGHTS ABOUT UNLV AT COL ST?
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

regarding tonights game... wait until 30 minutes or so before gametime and bet the under...
 
sharp... i don't know if you've watched K St this year... but they are a fade team for sure... the problem is their defense and specifically their defensive coordinator...
 
against Louisville they got eaten alive by a team that was struggling on offense... why?  because they spent every single down (not 1 exception) in man-to-man coverage... Hunter Cantwell picked them apart...
 
i've been waiting for the Big 12 schedule to start every since that K St - Louisville game... after that game i said i spotted a great angle... i think you were one of the people who asked what it is... it's not complicated... the angle is, bet against K St anytime they play against a potent passing game... very simple... they can't stop anyone...

that was me that asked about it, I remember now.....perhaps I need to rethink this game. thx

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

looking to narrow down these ML bets a bit more... anyone have any thoughts?  or other strong ML feelings?
 
also, what do people think of Minnesota?  i was probably gonna pass on this one, but the line at my book is under 7... am i missing something?  Indiana is awful, and Minnesota has played tough every game...

Indiana isn't as bad as appears....hung w/ Ball state for most almost 3 quarters.  Should of easily covered vs Mich st last week. If they played again this week, I'd pound Indiana. 

I actually thought the opening line of Minn -7.5 was high and is scaring me off of playing Indiana. I thought it would've been around -5...

 
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Posted: #92
Sharp, don't want to talk you out of a bet you really like... if you did really like it... just giving you my take...
 
if Tx Tech covers this game i will probably continue to fade K St throughout the Big 12 schedule as long as it is successful...
 
 
SF... thanks... don't really have any thoughts on UNLV-Col St, though... i don't seem to have a good feel for UNLV so i'm just steering clear of them right now...
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

strongest feelings i have are on Ariz St, UTEP and Oregon...

my other option would be to just run a 2-team ML parlay on Tx Tech and Minnesota, which would pay around even money...

My 2 favorite plays this week are Az St and Toledo.  Love the spots for these.two.

ASU is flying under the radar and perceived poorly and Cal isn't due to their big win last week.  Cal barely outgained Col St and scored 3 flukey TDs....very misleading win.  Not only does ASU cover, but they win SU...maybe convincingly.

Ball St's dream run is over too.  Toledo cracks em hard, just like Fresno a couple of weeks ago.  Ball st is overrated....Toledo gets the SU win here fairly easily 

 
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Posted: #94
Hi Shep!! Kinda new here but im playing a card and wanted yer opinion:
TTech-7
Illinois+2.5
toledo+7  Kinda feel this is a trap.
kent st+4.5
rice+14 They may win.
oregon+17 sweep?
40 to 1. wager 1unit
wanted to add one more. any comments would be greatly appreciated.  thanks shep.
 
 
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Posted: #95
You forgot to put in Fresno St. -22.5.  I'm 3-0 in Hawaii games so far and I don't see them doing much against a decent Fresno St. defense.  Plus Hawaii on the road is brutal.  I really think Fresno wants to humiliate Hawaii this year.  I don't see Hawaii scoring more then 14 pts in this one.  Graunke will probably start in this one but he is just like the rest of them...rubbish!! Without receivers who can make big plays Hawaii is lefted with 5-8 yard catches and every now and then a decent gain on a shovel pass.  They are just plain horrible (I live in Hawaii..I should know). Predicted score 42-13. 
 
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Posted: #96
shep...
 
careful with Indiana.. Kevin Smith looked good last week against Mich ST even when he was banged up.. their running back has olympic speed and blew past MICh ST's D easily.. had to squeeze the whole game... youre a better capper than I am but im just putting my  $.02  in.. Jumped on Fresno ST as soon as it came out and liking TX Tech from the beginning..  BOL to you guys and get that money!
 
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Posted: #97
I don't think Tulsa will lose the game at home. They might not cover but lose
 
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Posted: #98
pddy... well, if those were all straight bets i would think that looks like a pretty damn good card... as a parlay?  who knows... GL!
 
 
i like Fresno, too... Hawaii is sure to get blown out a lot on the road this year... also think Florida will trounce Arkansas just like everyone else has...
 
 
 
after Tx Tech and Nevada, three games i am really liking this weekend are:  Auburn, Ohio St and Tennessee... will most likely add the first two, and upgrade the third to a best bet...
 
also, Ariz St and Oregon look like very solid ML plays this week (if you can find a ML on the Oregon-USC game, that is)... Oregon ML will probably lose, of course, but the value is off by about 500%... Ariz St is really a 50/50 proposition as far as who wins, so ridiculous value on that one...
 
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Posted: #99
phan... first off, i have been on Tulsa every game this year... twice as a best bet... but let's get real now... they are a weak defensive team, that has not played anyone... Rice has played better defense, and played much stiffer competition... easy to find a comparison between them... Tulsa 56-26 over No Tx at home... Rice 77-20 over No Tx at home...
 
second, and this is the key... all of my ML bets are combo bets... that means i bet equal values on the ML and the side... the side is a given, but i make my killing on the side... the only exception is a game like SJ St last week, where the spread is 3 or less anyway, so i just doubled the ML bet...
 
you can see i am 8-4 on my ML bets... but what you don't see is that i am 11-1 ATS on those bets (MTS didn't cover week 1 against Troy)... as i see it, my ML bets are free ML bets...
 
 
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Posted: #100
sharp, almost missed your last post about ASU... glad you like it... to further your point, ASU is not only off of a bye, which i like, but they are off of what i call a measuring stick game... spotting those measuring stick games can be a great money system... honestly, if they made the line on Cal-ASU a pick, and someone put a gun to my head and said, if you don't pick the right side your dead... i'd still have to take ASU... i would have said the exact same thing about Alabama and Va Tech last week... no joke!
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