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follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

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Prospect
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Posted: #301
shepherd
i have a great of respect so dont feel bad
you'll comeback like a champ i know you are mad right know
but remember only who recognizes that fails will triumph in the end
you are one if not best in this football forum get up bro
 
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Posted: #302
What if Denver wins by 3?
 
Griese knows this field. I can't trust the Broncos defense. No one can. I've gotta see how the "grades" come out for the Tampa Bay offense.
 
Take a hard look at the Jaguars. Don't worry about the points. That Steelers O-Line is going to get worked and reworked by Spicer and the Jags blitz package.
 
I know its a revenge game. But the Steelers are in a very bad spot, me thinks.
 
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Posted: #303

enchufes... thanks, i'm not sweating it... i'm just pissed because i wrote down 4 picks and told my friends these are the picks... and then i let various opinions influence me... mostly just pissed that i backed off of Ball St... Toledo is a God Awful football team...

Happy... if Denver wins by 3 i will push...

appreciate the advice, Kane, but nobody is changing my picks... in case you didn't notice, advice from other people killed me this week...

i have 6 games... i will play no others and i will not change my picks... the only information i am interested in gathering from people on Covers for the rest of the year is inside (local sports) info or injury info... outside of that, nobody looks at more angles than i do, and too often i give other people too much credit...

you da man, Kane... but too many opinions are definitely a bad thing...

 
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Posted: #304
I agree with all of the NFL picks shep, except for Arizona, Buffalo has covered for me twice so far this year and are not getting points. Wheres your lean and why on the Cardinals in this one. I also have the Colts too.
 
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Posted: #305
take a good hard look at my picks next week... right now i'm leaning towards hitting about 6 or 8 games and all of them will be best bets... next week will be my best week since weeks 1 and 2, when i put together a 19-4 record...
 
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Posted: #306
jwheels... Cards are a good team, and a tale of two coasts... i have been mopping up on the East to West and West to East angle in the NFL... it is money... i don't think Buffalo can come into the desert and beat Arizona... same goes for Seattle heading to NY to play the Giants... i've lived on the West Coast for awhile now, and both of these teams have serious hangups going East, but play lights out at home against teams from the East coast...
 
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Posted: #307
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

take a good hard look at my picks next week... right now i'm leaning towards hitting about 6 or 8 games and all of them will be best bets... next week will be my best week since weeks 1 and 2, when i put together a 19-4 record...

 

I need a good week, I broke exactly even last week and actually fell a little under today from going about 9-8 and my Tx. Tech , Tenn. parlay didn't hit. That killed my profit, vols sickened me.

I need another week like I had two weeks ago. I need a good day in the NFL tommorrow as well, today just pure pissed me off.

 
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Posted: #308
Sheperd,
My strategy is take almost every big favorite in week 1 and week 2.  If you look at dd fav's performance over those two weeks you will see something like 75% positive result.  As the season goes on I try to fish out dogs and heavy ML dogs.
 
Anyway, my dog sniffing the last two weeks blew, my midweek plays weren't any better, but one thing I knew is that Idaho sucks.  I didnt play many this week, but I took NV 1st 1/2, game, and 2nd half. 
 
I cant find a good dog betting approach.  I look at the card and try to eliminate the dogs that just dont deserve putting money on. You know the teams that just give you no reason to take them.  Well, it seems like they are the dogs that hit.  The dog that seems like they have a shot sometimes cover but the ML pickings have been slim.  I've tried being selective and I've tried the shotgun approach.  I'm going to go back to the dog hunt, but this weekend I went with just best against Idaho.
 
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Posted: #309
Also, what the hell happened to Oregon in the 2nd half? Jesus
 
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Posted: #310
First off , Thanks for mentioning  the T Tech bet, after reading your early post, I made that my best bet and won. I try and warn you about Tulsa, but you already  know how that goes. Lost on Kansas cause they decided to play only inthe 2nd half. Won with Mizzou. went 3-1. Well G L with your NFL bet tommorrow.
 
I am taking
 
Baltimore
Colts
washington (if westbrook is not playing)
Ov Denver
 
Peace out !!
 
 
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Posted: #311
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Also, what the hell happened to Oregon in the 2nd half? Jesus

i want to know what happened to them in the 2nd quarter... they gave up 10 pts in the last :40 seconds after playing a solid first half... i felt like that was where they lost the game... i think if they were within 10 they still could have been competitive and stayed with the gameplan...

 
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Posted: #312
Damn Shepard!  Stop playing so many damn games bro!  You are a bookies dream man.  Pick a small amount of games in an odd number like (3) or (1).  The juice over the long run is going to murder your winnings. 
 
 
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Posted: #313
Bowling Green screwed me and many others too yesterday.  Don't sweat that one!  20 point favorite going down like that....bullshit!
 
 
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Posted: #314
Quote Originally Posted by jp1lsu:

Sheperd,
My strategy is take almost every big favorite in week 1 and week 2.  If you look at dd fav's performance over those two weeks you will see something like 75% positive result.  As the season goes on I try to fish out dogs and heavy ML dogs.
 
Anyway, my dog sniffing the last two weeks blew, my midweek plays weren't any better, but one thing I knew is that Idaho sucks.  I didnt play many this week, but I took NV 1st 1/2, game, and 2nd half. 
 
I cant find a good dog betting approach.  I look at the card and try to eliminate the dogs that just dont deserve putting money on. You know the teams that just give you no reason to take them.  Well, it seems like they are the dogs that hit.  The dog that seems like they have a shot sometimes cover but the ML pickings have been slim.  I've tried being selective and I've tried the shotgun approach.  I'm going to go back to the dog hunt, but this weekend I went with just best against Idaho.


I have a strategy that has work since week 1 also. Take more dogs for early and afternoon games, take more favorites for evening games, preferably 7pm est games.
 
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Posted: #315

Kong... i'm a bookies dream???

 

try again man...

 
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Posted: #316

if i were only picking 1 to 3 games a week it would have cost me about 15 units of winnings this year...

i give the advice, ok?

 
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Posted: #317
small plays this year for me are 31-13... games that are combod with my ML plays are 15-6...
 
but you are saying i should drop those games, which are 46-19 for the year...
 
there is no amount of juice that can kill your winnings if you are picking winners... simple mathematics...
 
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Posted: #318
Do you sleep, shepherd?
 
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Posted: #319
Thanks Shep for your best bets on Nevada, TxTech, and Tenn.  I loaded up on Nevada and Tech.  Tenn I had a small play on and like others they ruined a good 3 team parlay.  Thank god for the overs in the Tech and Mizzou games.  ( I thought I lost the over in the Mizzou game at 66 1/2, but Neb. ran that one last play when I thought they were going to let the clock run out.)

Plus, I lost on the over in Auburn/Vandy game at 38.

Finshed up after a wild day at plus $284.  Thanks to you.

GO SOONERS...KICK LONGHORN A$$ ON 10/11.
 
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Posted: #320
Shepherd,
How bout those ducks...the only reason oregon was in the game the first quarter was sloppy play by usc...dumb penalties and fumbled snaps...complete domination by usc...just some future advice...dont be so confident or cocky that you dont listen to others point of view!
 
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Posted: #321
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

take a good hard look at my picks next week... right now i'm leaning towards hitting about 6 or 8 games and all of them will be best bets... next week will be my best week since weeks 1 and 2, when i put together a 19-4 record...

Unlucky this weekend shep, you will get it going again next weekend.  Everyone in this thread respects your opinion a lot.  Don't get too overzealous next weekend picking so many games, this is a long run business and you understand that.  No need to try and force a huge weekend.


 
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Posted: #322
guys... stop telling me how to manage my card... i'm not joking!
 
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Posted: #323

every week has a different feel... if i like 50 games i will bet 50... if i like 2 i will bet 2...

 

once again... betting more games is the only reason i didn't take a bath this weekend... you guys don't seem to realize, i have bet this many games most weeks this year... i just don't usually post all of the ML bets and small plays...

also once again... thanks to my NFL picks i once again will not lose any money this weekend...

 

maybe i will take a different approach to my thread this week... stay tuned...

 
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Posted: #324
I started out 6-0 in the NFL today.. Damn I needed it
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #325

Sheperd; Enjoy following your posts and agree 100% as I have decided to not get talked out of my favs. I am trying to gather everyones input but in the future will merely look for confirmation from cappers like you to increase a bet occasionally. I am no expert but do follow the Big 12 and Kansas extremely close if you ever have a question. Thanks for your posts and GL.

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