All Forums | Website Promotions

follow the shepherd (week 6 CFB plays)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 25288
Posts: 338
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 435
Posted: #101
shep,
 
  sounds kinda weird but i kinda like the over for rice\tulsa.   i can just imagine how many bets are going for the under 80 pts.  I'm thinking that the refs will not be using their whistles much for penalty calls in this game.  i know its a long shot.  probably wont play it tho.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 47
Posted: #102
Shep, what do you think about Maryland -14 against a bad VA team?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 141
Posted: #103
I grew up in Tulsa and lived there for several years. The 12 thousand fans who are in attendance get there tickets worth on every single night game there - most games are like a tennis match. But tread lightly Rice backers. Tulsa at home, at night vs conference West rival - very dangerous. It's nights like this when their defense will come out from behind the curtain. Tulsa's been dominate since joining Conference USA and will be the conference champs this year. BOL everyone!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #104
pddy and everyone else who keeps talking about the overs for Rice/Tulsa and Tx Tech/K St... yes, both games look like obvious overs, as i have stated 3 times already in this thread...
 
but obvious overs rarely cover, so it's unlikely i will bet them, unless they just set the totals way too low...
 
 
redriver... i agree that Tulsa will win CUSA this year... or at least that they are the best team... but personally i think they have about 0 chance of covering a 2 TD spread against Rice...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #105
Flexit... i think Maryland is most likely a bad bet, but who knows... i won't bet it...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #106

ok, just saw the totals on these two games, so let's take a look...

Tx Tech/K St total is 66... not too outrageous... Tx Tech can play some defense, but i still expect TT to score... KSt can't play defense, and i expect Tx Tech to score at least 45... hmmmm... might be close...

Tulsa/Rice... i look at this game and i see 56-45... total is 80... well, for some reason these obvious shootouts find a way of going under more than you would think...

 

here's my advice:  if you want to bet either over, wait until much later in the week... if the total on either game is higher than it is now, don't bother... but they should both drop a bit... if they drop enough, sure go ahead... 63 for TT/KSU or 77 for Tulsa/Rice should give you a better shot...

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 45
Posted: #107
like the TEN -TT -OREGON -KANSAS good pick
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 45
Posted: #108
hey SHEPHERP what you think about tonight game
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #109
Tracking the top 9: (25-8-2)
 
1) OU (4-0)
2) Alabama (4-1)
3) Penn St (3-1-1)
4) LSU (1-2)
5) USC (2-1)
6) Fla (3-1)
7) UGA (2-1-1)
8) Texas (4-0)
9) Missou (2-1)
 
 
Bubble teams: Tx Tech (1-0-1), BYU (2-1)
 
 
last weeks Top 9 results: 3-4-1
 
 
teams that look good this week: Tx Tech, BYU, Florida...
could go either way: OU, Bama, PSU, Missou...
stay away: USC, Texas...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #110
duyouwife... wasn't this originally the Friday game?  anyway... would have to go with La Tech... they play tough in conf, and play Boise tough...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #111
trivia question:
 
when was the last time this scenario happened?
 
1) team with legitimate BCS and/or NC aspirations loses outright
2) said team covers the following week
 
i'm pretty sure it hasn't happened yet this year...
 
Ohio St, ECU, Fresno St, Toledo... have there been any others this year?  0-4 is not good, and if you go back to last year, that trend doesn't get too much better...
 
USC is in big big trouble this weekend... no way they can lay 17 against a team like Oregon... they will maybe win... by no more than a TD, though...
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 20078
Posted: #112
hey shep throw me your thoughts on all dogs you like and esp ML plays
 
greatly apprec
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #113
for the record, 2 of those 4 teams lost outright the following week... Toledo even lost outright, at home, to a God awful Florida International team!!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #114
goalline... Ariz St, Oregon, Colorado, Rice, Toledo...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #115

two add-ons:

Arizona St (+10)

Rice (+14.5)

 

Updated Week 5 card:
 
BYU (-28)
*Nevada (-23.5)
*Tx Tech (-6.5)
Tennessee (-16)
Bowling Green (-20.5)
Oregon (+17)
Ariz St (+10)
Rice (+14.5)
 
 
* - best bets
 
 
 
also, there is really no doubt that i will upgrade Tennessee to a best bet... just still waiting to see if i can get the line to go down a bit more...
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 1440
Posted: #116
Hi Shep, thanks for the fun and informative threads.  Not to be taken for granted at covers.  You put a lot of work into it and thanks for sharing.

For your ML bets, the only two I would consider would be Temple and Ariz. St.  Looks like you may have already decided against Temple.  I may take Az St + the points, as you just did.

Otherwise the only other bets I've made this week are ILL +2.5 and Penn St -12.5.   Not sure why you don't like PSU this week.  I was not sure they would cover the last 2 games, but this one I think they cover easily.  This team is at least as good as the 2005 squad, and Painter has yet to throw a TD v. PSU in his first three seasons as QB.

Surprised no one responded to your question about avatars.  The trick to them is 1) you need to pick one small in size -- large pics won't work.  Also they will always be reformatted to squeeze into that vertical dimension.  So a horizontal pic will get squeezed, look for a vertically-oriented one if you can.

Otherwise the way to edit your avatar is to do this:

- go to YOUR covers space
- click the "customize" tab
- in the upper left slot, where it says profile-shepherd, click "edit"
- find an image, save it to your pc, browse for it and hit preview

Good luck with your picks as usual. 

[IMG]https://img.photobucket.com/albums/v466/danstyk/153005363_3719f8fa4c.jpg[/IMG]
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 1440
Posted: #117
Ignore that last bit... was seeing if I could paste an image in here, but apparently no, and I can't edit the post.


 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 12442
Posted: #118
peace handshake Oregon
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #119
dan... thank you very much on the avatar info... will have to mess with that sometime tonight...
 
i don't know if you've followed my thread for long, but regarding PSU... first, they are part of my "Elite teams system"... second, i only list my 1/2 unit or full 1 unit plays on this card... however, i play about 8 to 10 1/4 unit plays each week, which are often system plays (such as the "Elite Teams system")... anyway, point is i will most likely have PSU as a 1/4 unit system play... already have Alabama and Florida on those...
 
 
 
 
 
four great overs in the Big 12 this weekend:  Tx Tech / KSt... Missou / Neb... OU / Baylor... Ok St / A&M... all in the 60-66 range...
 
i have all 4 of those on my 1/4 unit card... will be shocked if it goes worse than 2-2... won't be shocked if it goes 4-0...
 
Covers Rehab
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2008
Posts: 97
Posted: #120
I'm going big on the Mizzou/Neb over... this should easily total 65+
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2008
Posts: 125
Posted: #121
Shep, the Ok St/A&M game will not be in the 60 point range unless Ok St scores about 50 points.  Just FYI.  I am an Ag and A&M is just awful this year.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2008
Posts: 1373
Posted: #122
DW... Ok St at home this year has scored 57, 56, 55... totals in those games were 93, 79 and 70...
 
this is the only one of the 4 Overs that i hesitated to bet... but A&M is a pass first team, and once they fall behind by a couple TDs they will throwing every down... so it isn't that crazy to expect 60 or 70 in this one...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 620
Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by jbwnut:

luv col beat ou last year can sure stay with texass
 
 


I love to see peoples justifications.  This is among the worst I have seen all year.

I am inclined to think Colorado can stay with in two scores if they play top notch ball.  Even closer if Texas has one of their usual midseason falters.

That still doesn't make that reasoning absolutely ridiculous.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 620
Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by shepherd:

DW... Ok St at home this year has scored 57, 56, 55... totals in those games were 93, 79 and 70...
 
this is the only one of the 4 Overs that i hesitated to bet... but A&M is a pass first team, and once they fall behind by a couple TDs they will throwing every down... so it isn't that crazy to expect 60 or 70 in this one...


My concern under that scenario would be the ongoing unspoken gentlemen's agreement amongst BIG 12 teams.  Rarely do they run the score up against one another.  It happens and certainly more frequently than in the past but there is a lot of friendship underlying most big 12 rivalries and more often than not teams up big don't just back off, they shut down completely.

Again, this has gone by the wayside in recent years as teams like Tech and Mizzou have gotten more and more score happy.  But back in the late nineties when the Florida teams were so prone to run up the score and the PAC-10 would throw on 4th down up by 28,  I can remember games from all the major Big 12 programs where the entire 3rd and 4th quarter were the winning team would go 3 and out, punt, defense stand, repeat.  Texas does it A LOT.

I haven't tracked the concept in a couple of years but it is one of the major reasons I stay away from O/U in Big 12.  Being within 14 points of a big over at half and then having 9 points get scored all half is maddening.



 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 160
Posted: #125
Shep ... I write the cheesy titled College Cram Session for Covers.

I'm interested in doing a point/counterpoint or Q&A with some of the site's top handicappers. You qualify.

If interested, we can either do it on our "cover spaces" or you can email me at bsoonerdave@yahoo.com.

I added you as a "covers friend" Wednesday night.

Let me know if you're up for it and good luck this weekend ...
All Forums | Website Promotions
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.