All Forums | Website Promotions

Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

Participants:

Posts: 1061

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:08 AM ET #126

Another thing I've thought about is who knows how accurate that data is anyways, from those sites. They can tell you the money is on whatever side they want you to think it's on.

I have a friend that is in the sports betting business and he tells me first hand who people are taking. Between this inside info and knowing the public like favorites and overs, etc, I feel I have a pretty good feel for who the busters really are betting on.

When it's 50/50 we pretty much no-play it, unless its a big move on a dog or under, and that's that. Fortunately it's almost never like that though. Trust me when I say that there are plenty of plays throughout the week.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:12 AM ET #127

My buddy told me all the busters were on the Lakers tonight. He liked the Lakers too though lol. Swear to God.

I'm an honest dude and I was wrong on Denver. I'm a buster too though. lol alright guys tomorrow

alexsean23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 26

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:19 AM ET #128

How do you bet against the Lakers? Kobe, Bynum, Pau? And the shooters going off. I mean I get your system. The casino makes profit because the MAJORITY of players are busting, that's got to be the case. Therefor you bet against the majority, assuming the majority is tipped to one side or another. If it's not then you don't bet. But sometimes the teams matter.

kendawg

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 127

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:27 AM ET #129

Alex. We didn't end up betting against the lakers tonight because the line moved back the other direction. Sharp money definitely doesn't win 100% of the time but we have to assume they win more than the public. So your correct about sometimes the teams matter as Czech said in the beginning of this thread " sometimes you just have to follow your gut feeling". At the end of the day we're all here to help each other beat the books.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:29 AM ET #130

Yeah man it was supposed to be close no matter what. I liked Denver as a matter of opinion.

This is the whole reason I'm working a system, to detour around the buster thought process. I don't have to pick games when I can follow the sharps. I don't know as much about these teams as they or Vegas do and don't need to.

That's why this game was a no play

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:33 AM ET #131

Alright guys good discussion tonight we're getting somewhere fast! Tomorrow we'll crank it up. I just peeked at the card and am not in love at first sight but I'm sure those lines will tell us something tomorrow.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:34 AM ET #132

Alex sounds like he's thinking the system picked Denver or something. Alex read the whole thread we never said anything like that. It was a no-play from the word hello

alexsean23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 26

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:38 AM ET #133

Makes sense. I still have a buster type of mind

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:39 AM ET #134

Guys to avoid confusion when I announce a system play you will know it. We discussed Denver earlier from our own opinions but were very clear about it NOT being a system play.

Let's keep it straight

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:40 AM ET #135

Alex I didn't mean it like that and no one has a bigger buster frame of mind then me sometimes though I'm trying to curb this lol

We're all busters sometimes

alexsean23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 26

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:43 AM ET #136

I am so with you. I want to curb it.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:44 AM ET #137

What I meant w read the whole thread if you need to catch up on the discussion.

The reason I'm afraid to discuss any personal picks in here is cuz people will confuse them with system plays and judge the system accordingly.

I started the thread to evaluate the system.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:45 AM ET #138

Man I can't type tonight lol stupid iPad.

We're curbing it already man you will see. System is hot right now got W9 today with the Bulls under.

kendawg

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 127

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 1:52 AM ET #139

Sorry if I confused anyone. I was just posting situations that were originally trending in our direction just so we could watch them and see where they ended up. That's why its important to wait until right before tipoff.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 2:47 AM ET #140

I agree kendawg

Man I need to get a profile pic all our posts look the same lol

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 2:50 AM ET #141

Listen guys it's a lot of fun being in a good thread every day. I can't discuss things with myself SL everyone is welcomed to join in. We're looking to encourage not discourage.

I would like the system plays to remain the main matter of topic but you guys are more than welcome to bring not only your thoughts but your plays as well. We can look at whatever you want to look at.

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 2:51 AM ET #142

SL was supposed to be "so" - stupid autocorrect

alexsean23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 26

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 2:53 AM ET #143

I love how positive this thread is! all hail the great Czech!

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 2:54 AM ET #144

We took a good honest look at Denver and deemed it a no-play. No big deal. Man I hate that the NBA is almost over. Football's a long way away

CZECH_RAZOR

Banned

Joined: Mar, 2012

Posts: 849

Posted: May. 7, 2012 - 3:03 AM ET #145

Depending on where you picked up, you may or may not know that the goal here is getting to $100k. Everyone keep that in mind.

Guys, my goal is 60%+ accuracy for the system plays in this thread. So far 4-0.

At 60%, on -110 games, our EV = 14% per game.

I've started with a $3k bankroll betting $200 per game, and going to double down every time the bankroll doubles.

At 60% the bankroll doubles every 107 games or so.

Within 550 or so games (on average) we reach $100k, as long as we're running at 60%. If you think it takes a long time to get to 550 games, it doesn't. Especially when college comes back.

And we don't have to stop there either. At that level we're betting $3200 a game and our EV (14%) is $448 per game. Imagine betting 2 games a day on average and profiting $900 a day on average.

This is where I'm trying to get to, and you guys are getting in at ground 0, since we just started yesterday. Gonna be interesting.