Posted:
#76
I will be on Denver too but not as confident as last game.
Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
Posted:
#77
One thing I haven't gotten into yet in this thread is busters on dogs and/or unders. These are among my favorite plays, taking a fav/over when the public is on a dog/under.
You don't see public favoring dogs or unders too often, and when it happens and you get any indication on the line going the other way it almost always hits.
This is really why I like Denver so much tonight, even though we don't have the line action. Busters are all over Lakers and I like Denver and they seem to be holding the line pretty strong. It's tried to go down a couple times but still hanging around -2.5 or -2 -115 on my site.
Not a true system play since the line movement isn't there but I like it. Lakers fans beware lol
Posted:
#79
If Denver can just hit some of their shots tonight they will win easily. That's gonna be the difference. Everyone knows lakers are suspect on the road, and they can't keep up w Denver. IMO it was Kobe that won game 2 and that's great but they almost lost that game even with Denver's abysmal shooting.
Denver at home though was a different story in game 3 and I like that to happen again tonight. This is all just my opinion though
Posted:
#81
Guys I should add right now that my opinion doesn't mean SHIT. I don't do write ups on games, and the fact that I just did on Denver even makes ME nervous lol. Denver is my opinion and there are indicators supporting it but this is my disclaimer here in case they lose. Don't want haters popping up in here saying I suck if they lose. I know I suck sometimes when I pick off my own opinion.
I want the majority of this thread to be devoted to system plays but don't mind sharing my thoughts, as long as you guys know the difference.
Okay I'll stop beating that dead horse lol go Denver!
Posted:
#83
Okay I looked up that site and see where it says 66% on the under. Where does it pull that data from?
Guys I'm embarrassed to admit but onl recently starting to use other sites for info like this. Where is the most reliable place to get this type of data?
If we knew the busters were pounding the under as this site suggests, then the over would def be a play. I just don't know anything about this site.
Posted:
#85
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Okay I looked up that site and see where it says 66% on the under. Where does it pull that data from?
Okay I looked up that site and see where it says 66% on the under. Where does it pull that data from?
Guys I'm embarrassed to admit but onl recently starting to use other sites for info like this. Where is the most reliable place to get this type of data?
If we knew the busters were pounding the under as this site suggests, then the over would def be a play. I just don't know anything about this site.
The site where he got "70% on under" must only take a small sample size. I used to use thespread.com, but so far I think "https://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" is the most reliable source, and it records bet amount which you can't find in most other sites.
Posted:
#89
Kendawg thanks for the info man I'll have to do more research on that site later, not using it tonight though.
Denver at -2 -110 now, and total up to 202.5.
System isn't making any predictions on this game I'm afraid.
I personally like Denver and the over. Good luck to everyone no matter who you take.
Posted:
#91
I think that it moving to -2 is for the late buster action on lakers, and IMO doesn't mean anything. Still like Denver.
This is what I'm afraid of on the total also. The only thing is the line move became significant on the over, so maybe it is a play. Idk. I can qualify any plays that are 50/50, and this is exactly why...indecision, which leads to rule 3, not going against my gut and breaking my own rules.
NO PLAY ALL THE WAY AROUND
Posted:
#94
I think the latest line movement is an indication of a Lakers cover, just like last game a final movement from -5.5 to -6 and Celtics blew out Hawks. Basketball wise it also makes sense because Lakers have reliable scorers while Denver rely on fastbreak, 3pt and momentum. They will try harder this time. After the blowout last time I think Vegas will give this one to the public.
Posted:
#95
The only thing I don't like about those late 1/2 pt moves is they can easily be adjustments for public bets, which come in pretty hard last 10 minutes before tip off.
I don't think I've gotten into the difference between different kinds of line moves yet, but I look for PROGRESSIVE moves, not ADJUSTED ones.
You guys will hear me talk more about that later.
Posted:
#97
Yysmer-
Just so you know I never would have taken Lakers given all the info. It turned into a no-play but it never woulda been a lakers play. With everyone and their moms on Lakers that alone eliminates it from any consideration. Only if it moved all the way to like -2.5 or -3 Lakers would I consider it. 1/2 point moves toward the favorite are not moves at all.
Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Yysmer-
Yysmer-
Just so you know I never would have taken Lakers given all the info. It turned into a no-play but it never woulda been a lakers play. With everyone and their moms on Lakers that alone eliminates it from any consideration. Only if it moved all the way to like -2.5 or -3 Lakers would I consider it. 1/2 point moves toward the favorite are not moves at all.
I just don't think Lakers will drop another game today which will probably lead to a Game 7. I have been fading the Lakers all the time because they can't cover when they are favorite, but today I really like them in this spot
Posted:
#100
Hey guys, in defense of yysmer, I want to put forth an idea I had that is outside of this system.
I think there can be indicators on plays in absence of line movement maybe, and let's use Lakers as an example.
Say Vegas likes Lakers tonight, but they know public is gonna like them too. They really can't make Lakers a significant favorite, maybe at the most Lakers -1.5 or -2.
So instead they make Denver -2, trying to discourage people off of the Lakers. The public was all over the Lakers anyways, but had they moved the line to Lakers -1 or -1.5 everyone would pound them, and they don't want this.
So they leave the line at Denver -2 all day, throwing off the sharps and some busters also that will never bet a dog. This is the only angle I can see lakers being a play from, but it is purely hypothetical.
Anyone have thoughts?
Again this is just an idea and is 100% OUTSIDE the purviews of my system. This is why I don't mess with games like this, and with lines close to PK's. Because they're hard to read.
Just saying if it comes either side I won't be surprised. This is why we must avoid lines like this one.
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