I don't think we know that the public is not taking Memphis. Clips have injury issues, almost lost 2 of their wins in the series so far, and lost last game. Add to that Memphis is favored now, and public usually take favorites. I think public is on Memphis now.
This doesn't mean Memphis won't win or that I don't like them. I do personally like them actually. But what I like doesn't really mean anything, anymore than who wins tonight means anything. We're tracking system plays and for the reasons listed above, there isn't a system play at this time on the game and most-likely won't be later either.
If we see numbers coming in on Clips and Memphis goes higher then maybe, but so far I'm seeing everyone jumping on Memphis and the under, making both moves suspect and hence no-plays.
Hey Czech you say that everyone is jumping on Memphis and the under but it has 62 percent of the public on over for the game tonight...
[Quote: Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR]
I don't think we know that the public is not taking Memphis. Clips have injury issues, almost lost 2 of their wins in the series so far, and lost last game. Add to that Memphis is favored now, and public usually take favorites. I think public is on Memphis now.
This doesn't mean Memphis won't win or that I don't like them. I do personally like them actually. But what I like doesn't really mean anything, anymore than who wins tonight means anything. We're tracking system plays and for the reasons listed above, there isn't a system play at this time on the game and most-likely won't be later either.
If we see numbers coming in on Clips and Memphis goes higher then maybe, but so far I'm seeing everyone jumping on Memphis and the under, making both moves suspect and hence no-plays.
Hey Czech you say that everyone is jumping on Memphis and the under but it has 62 percent of the public on over for the game tonight...
We're in the post-season of NBA, and so far so good, but right now I'm just making some decent money and ironing out the couple kinks. I never even released the new System 2.0 guidelines, and don't have to. You guys have everything you need for the rest of this season.
Next season is when I truly bring down the books. I'm not kidding either. I'm a poker player and Florida has gotten to be a great spot for poker but there's no sports betting, and I want both at the palm of my hands. Right now I'm using an offshore site. But that won't be good enough next year because I'm going for big money.
I want to be playing a 10-20 nl game at the Bellagio or Aria or something and walk to the counter to bet my sharp play, then cash the ticket on my way out. That's the life I want. I want to move to Vegas later this year. I'd be ready to do it now, had I not went close to broke late last year. But I'm rebuilding now and gonna do it eventually.
I live at Aria, actually at the Veer towers in front of Aria
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
Next season is gonna be SICK.
We're in the post-season of NBA, and so far so good, but right now I'm just making some decent money and ironing out the couple kinks. I never even released the new System 2.0 guidelines, and don't have to. You guys have everything you need for the rest of this season.
Next season is when I truly bring down the books. I'm not kidding either. I'm a poker player and Florida has gotten to be a great spot for poker but there's no sports betting, and I want both at the palm of my hands. Right now I'm using an offshore site. But that won't be good enough next year because I'm going for big money.
I want to be playing a 10-20 nl game at the Bellagio or Aria or something and walk to the counter to bet my sharp play, then cash the ticket on my way out. That's the life I want. I want to move to Vegas later this year. I'd be ready to do it now, had I not went close to broke late last year. But I'm rebuilding now and gonna do it eventually.
I live at Aria, actually at the Veer towers in front of Aria
CZECH RAZOR You think you wanna live in Vegas and gamble everyday with your system HUH? Did you really give that some SERIOUS thought? Not saying that your the Average gambler but the average Gambler that goes there with that opinion ends up LOSING EVERYTHING!!!!!! FAMILY MONEY ETC. Vegas is nice to visit and that's every Gambler's pipe dream but it's like REALLY DUDE you can't actually LIVE like that. I don't know about you but the Stress of Gambling for me can sometimes be OVERWHELMING and to think of trying to do it every day cuz it's my living? Honestly I'd rather be a Bookie than be trying to make a living solely from gambling.You might wanna give that idea some SERIOUS thought.
CZECH RAZOR You think you wanna live in Vegas and gamble everyday with your system HUH? Did you really give that some SERIOUS thought? Not saying that your the Average gambler but the average Gambler that goes there with that opinion ends up LOSING EVERYTHING!!!!!! FAMILY MONEY ETC. Vegas is nice to visit and that's every Gambler's pipe dream but it's like REALLY DUDE you can't actually LIVE like that. I don't know about you but the Stress of Gambling for me can sometimes be OVERWHELMING and to think of trying to do it every day cuz it's my living? Honestly I'd rather be a Bookie than be trying to make a living solely from gambling.You might wanna give that idea some SERIOUS thought.
Guaji, I see this also according to Covers consensus data.
I was assuming these line moves were injury related, and that the public was jumping on the under and memphis. I could be totally wrong on that though.
Be back shortly someone do a little digging on it
Quote Originally Posted by Guaji:
56% on Memphis 59% on over.
It was 181.5 and now 179.
Guaji, I see this also according to Covers consensus data.
I was assuming these line moves were injury related, and that the public was jumping on the under and memphis. I could be totally wrong on that though.
I would assume its cause of the injuries which is an exception but I think the betting world knows Paul has been confirmed to play and Blake is highly likely...but I guess I can see why it might not qualify cause of the uncertainty of blake
I would assume its cause of the injuries which is an exception but I think the betting world knows Paul has been confirmed to play and Blake is highly likely...but I guess I can see why it might not qualify cause of the uncertainty of blake
This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.
Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise. Personal picks are Memphis and the under.
This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.
Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise. Personal picks are Memphis and the under.
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going. Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare. Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%. Over at 67% and the other at 45%. This info is totally out of wack. I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).
Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play. This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get. People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM. People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back. NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.
It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't. As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).
For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER. Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.
GL everyone and have a great weekend!
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going. Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare. Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%. Over at 67% and the other at 45%. This info is totally out of wack. I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).
Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play. This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get. People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM. People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back. NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.
It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't. As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).
For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER. Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.
scores and odds showing 67% on memphis and 52% on under.....clippers catching points at home in a possible closeout game of a tight series....lines at 2.5 my locals at 3 im biting....mark dogg is 13-1 in his last 14 hes onthem....anthony starks is getting back to winning tonight took them...rastad is on them too....vegas has everyone thinking memphis is taking it to a game 7...if they win in la it will be a 1 to 2 point game
scores and odds showing 67% on memphis and 52% on under.....clippers catching points at home in a possible closeout game of a tight series....lines at 2.5 my locals at 3 im biting....mark dogg is 13-1 in his last 14 hes onthem....anthony starks is getting back to winning tonight took them...rastad is on them too....vegas has everyone thinking memphis is taking it to a game 7...if they win in la it will be a 1 to 2 point game
This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.
Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise. Personal picks are Memphis and the under.
I like also Memphis and might play only that... I am a little afraid about the movement like the Lakers one.
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:
This is why I said to avoid injury-related line moves, because now we're playing a guessing game trying to figure out who the public is betting, why the line moved, is it because of Blake Griffin, etc etc.
Looks like a big fat no-play system-wise. Personal picks are Memphis and the under.
I like also Memphis and might play only that... I am a little afraid about the movement like the Lakers one.
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going. Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare. Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%. Over at 67% and the other at 45%. This info is totally out of wack. I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).
Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play. This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get. People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM. People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back. NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.
It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't. As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).
For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER. Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.
GL everyone and have a great weekend!
This was a pretty good breakdown thanks dude. We just don't have any sharp info to make a system play.
I also like Memphis and under and think we have indicators on both but they are no-plays according to the system. Good luck to whoever you take.
Quote Originally Posted by misterstats:
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going. Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare. Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%. Over at 67% and the other at 45%. This info is totally out of wack. I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).
Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play. This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get. People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM. People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back. NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.
It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't. As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).
For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER. Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.
GL everyone and have a great weekend!
This was a pretty good breakdown thanks dude. We just don't have any sharp info to make a system play.
I also like Memphis and under and think we have indicators on both but they are no-plays according to the system. Good luck to whoever you take.
Hi I'm also looking for the relation between line movements and results in baseball totals. Can you please explain how you do that because I found it inaccurate sometimes.
I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case. !!But Remember!! It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line. -->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
Quote Originally Posted by yysmer:
Hi I'm also looking for the relation between line movements and results in baseball totals. Can you please explain how you do that because I found it inaccurate sometimes.
I use the method of progressive line moves like Czech does, except I have been using scoresandodds.com.
I start by looking for a half point movement in the o/u. Then I go to covers consensus. I will immediately take the pick if public is 55% or more on the other side of the move.
I do have one exception that Czech does not do, and it applies for all sports..
IF there is a consensus across the board, I will do the pick. --For example-- Say Giants are at Dodgers and the line moves from 7 to 6.5. I go to MLB consensus and find that the Under is the consensus (55% or more) for the Public, the Top 10%, and the Team Experts. I will do the pick in this case. !!But Remember!! It is important for the line to move Progressively.. If it moves back and forth, then it is no good. A progressive line move is the sign of the sharp, and shows that the sharps are in agreement with the public about the o/u line. -->If the sharps agree with the public, chances are the line would move that way even without public money coming in. That's why I have that exception.
I have done this system for a couple months now and it is pretty impressive. It seems to have a 55%-60% win ratio. But more research is necessary..
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