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Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101

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Posted: #801
In your defense though it isn't just one bucket. Besides you're paying -110 straight. So it's not a 50% difference. I don't know what the ml price was at -2.5 plus there's the implications of it being so close to a tie game, etc. 

There's a big difference between -2.5 and -.5 (ml) in a game like this with 2 teams so closely matched. I mean we had 2 games by 1 point, 1 OT...

So maybe it would make sense idk. Just not part of my strategy. For the couple times it woulda helped me it woulda cost me a ton of profits also. Usually when I take a sharp play favorite and they win, they cover also. Especially at a line so close to a pk 
 
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Posted: #802
These teams are playing such a tight series it's hard not to take whoever's the dog with points. Wonder what game 7 line will be?
 
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Posted: #803
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

In your defense though it isn't just one bucket. Besides you're paying -110 straight. So it's not a 50% difference. I don't know what the ml price was at -2.5 plus there's the implications of it being so close to a tie game, etc. 

There's a big difference between -2.5 and -.5 (ml) in a game like this with 2 teams so closely matched. I mean we had 2 games by 1 point, 1 OT...

So maybe it would make sense idk. Just not part of my strategy. For the couple times it woulda helped me it woulda cost me a ton of profits also. Usually when I take a sharp play favorite and they win, they cover also. Especially at a line so close to a pk 


Yes that depends on strategies bet for example I always like to buy 2 points and that save me a lot of games.

 The -2.5 was at -140 if I am not wrong... didn't pay attention after placing my bet.
 
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Posted: #804
Vegas is playing lately like a bitch... Yesterday with Phil was the same. I got the bet at -3 and bought two points -1 and thanks for that got the push. Today, the same with -2.5 those that got the bet earlier was really lucky to get a push (-2) and those that got +1.5 in the morning was very but very lucky.
 
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Posted: #805
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

These teams are playing such a tight series it's hard not to take whoever's the dog with points. Wonder what game 7 line will be?


Well my honest guess will be something around Memphis -6 or to make people bet on Clippers more than that.
 
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Posted: #806
Quote Originally Posted by Guaji:

Vegas is playing lately like a bitch... Yesterday with Phil was the same. I got the bet at -3 and bought two points -1 and thanks for that got the push. Today, the same with -2.5 those that got the bet earlier was really lucky to get a push (-2) and those that got +1.5 in the morning was very but very lucky.

Memphis -2 was lucky to get push? No way I thought they shoulda covered easily. Missed critical free throws at end and still up 5 with no time left. Clips were the ones lucky to get the push. 
 
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Posted: #807
Quote Originally Posted by Guaji:



Well my honest guess will be something around Memphis -6 or to make people bet on Clippers more than that.

That sounds about right to me - I think they SHOULD put the total at 178 but they will prob have it higher and I bet all the B's will take over. 

I was just thinking Vegas should be getting all game 7 lines right and there shouldn't be value in anything, but that would only be true if there were no busters out there. The B's will skew the lines same as they usually do. Us sharps might find a spot. 
 
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Posted: #808
We will find a spot my friend! Now, let's just wait and see tomorrow's plays and win them all!
 
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Posted: #809
Man Vegas couldn't have done better with the line today honestly. Pushed the side and off by 1/2 pt on the total. 

They didn't open it there though. It was an interesting one to analyze today. If you look at the line action it all happened this am so fast and then sat there all day. 

They knew what the true line was and it's where they adjusted it to, this morning. Makes you wonder about the open though. They were hoping everyone took clips and over but then people were talking about griffin and Paul and they switched to the the true line quick and kept it there all day. 

I could be wrong but they knew those 2 busters were playing and still adjusted that line this am. Makes you wonder about the open though. I think that's living proof of how they rape the busters. 

Normally public woulda been all over clips -1.5 at home tonight and over 181.5, and those busters woulda went 0-2. Only because of the adjustment did they have a chance. 
 
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Posted: #810
You know it's funny the B's should only skew most games a little bit, but the system is killing it. 

The system is only as good as the sharps it follows, right? So these sharps do exist and they're super sharp. Just as sharp as Vegas. 

I know Vegas has talent that sets lines etc but honestly I feel like a computer does the heavy lifting. There has to be some sick algorithm they use or something. I wish I had that bit of info. With busters skewing lines if you had Vegas' system you would become a millionaire betting sports. 

We need the Don's Best algorithm lol 
 
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Posted: #811
Wow I swear to God just was outside smoking on iPad and decided to look at what's up tomorrow. 

Saw Phi at Boston and burning one and thought to myself hmmm bet busters like Boston and we'll see sharps on Phi. 

Then I pulled up matchup and yep 60% on Boston. Then open line history yep! Movement on Phi. 

 
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Posted: #812
Quote Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Wow I swear to God just was outside smoking on iPad and decided to look at what's up tomorrow. 

Saw Phi at Boston and burning one and thought to myself hmmm bet busters like Boston and we'll see sharps on Phi. 

Then I pulled up matchup and yep 60% on Boston. Then open line history yep! Movement on Phi. 



Czech are you talking about smoking a lil green?  Also What does all this mean, Im lil slow.  Should i pound my whole roll on Philly?.  Lemme know bro.  Gl to all
 
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Posted: #813
Idk yet EZ. just a first impression. Actually it's green and purple. Very nice. 
 
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Posted: #814
Man then just looked at Denver tomorrow. We're gonna have a fun night tomorrow night. I love the games. So much better than tonight's tough game. 

My luck we'll have a bad night but I don't care it looks juicy. Not hard to figure what I like tomorrow you guys should be able to guess 4-0 what I like. 

We'll see what happens with the lines though tomorrow 
 
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Posted: #815
i think u mean red/blue and purple....
 
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Posted: #816
then again u're right let's wait until tomorrow and get the #s.  gl fellas
 
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Posted: #817
Hey look at my profile pic then look at sub Rule 8 on page 1. 
 
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Posted: #818
 
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Posted: #819
Sharp idea, great thread, thank you Czech.

Question- when public money (over 50%) comes in on a dog and the line moves away from the dog towards the fav, is that an indication of sharp money on the fav or the Book trying to protect itself from a huge pay-out if the dog wins?

Ex; I'm looking at Natl's/Reds right now on scoresandodds.com, over 50% coming in on Natl's, yet the line has moved from -115 to -127 for the Reds
 
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Posted: #820
Quote Originally Posted by hardyvault:

Sharp idea, great thread, thank you Czech.

Question- when public money (over 50%) comes in on a dog and the line moves away from the dog towards the fav, is that an indication of sharp money on the fav or the Book trying to protect itself from a huge pay-out if the dog wins?

Ex; I'm looking at Natl's/Reds right now on scoresandodds.com, over 50% coming in on Natl's, yet the line has moved from -115 to -127 for the Reds
  Where do you come up with all these names?  Planning this very nicely.
 
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Posted: #821
Looks like Rod is starting off strong with a Buster Comment of the Day post...this one may wind up in contention for Buster Comment of the Week
 
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Posted: #822
Hey Rod everyone in here with anything good to say is all me I have 72 different accounts and I rigged the games also to hit to make me look good. What a dummy you are
 
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Posted: #823
Quote Originally Posted by hardyvault:

Sharp idea, great thread, thank you Czech.

Question- when public money (over 50%) comes in on a dog and the line moves away from the dog towards the fav, is that an indication of sharp money on the fav or the Book trying to protect itself from a huge pay-out if the dog wins?

Ex; I'm looking at Natl's/Reds right now on scoresandodds.com, over 50% coming in on Natl's, yet the line has moved from -115 to -127 for the Reds

Hardy,

Thanks for the words, as to your question though, if they raise the price on the favorite they are at the same time lowering the price on the dog.  How would they be protecting themselves against a huge payout by offering an even bigger payout if the dog wins?

 
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Posted: #824
That doesn't necessarily mean Vegas likes the favorite though. I think of a couple better reasons why Vegas might do it if they like the dog, but there are a lot of different implications with baseball lines and I haven' really delved into all of that yet.  I prob will start soon since I'll have nothing else to bet on when basketball is over. Looking forward to next football and basketball seasons though. 
 
 
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Posted: #825
In general though and I think this applies to all sports, if you see busters pounding side A and at the same time side A is getting cheaper, something is wrong with the picture.
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