Ben Shelton (+1600)
We all know about Shelton's strong serve but the big difference for him so far in Canada has been his return game. For his career Shelton is below 33% in return points won and over the past 52 weeks that number sits at 32.9%. For context if you look at only top 50 players Shelton, a top 10 player, ranks 49th. Sinner is the top player in RPW on hard courts at 41.4%.
However Ben is likely in the middle of the best stretch on return he's had in his career. Since landing in North America he's averaging right at 40% RPW and in Canada (before tonight's match) his average is nearly 43%. So far tonight he is tracking close to that as well against a good server.
It's a small sample size but when a top 10 player increases his RPW by 10 points and sustains it through an entire Masters 1000 you absolutely have to take notice.
Worst case scenario for this bet you have both Sinner and Alcaraz play the US Open and be 100% but you still have them trying to do what's never been done before which is to win it without playing any of the warmup events. More likely scenario would be either one or both of them are physically/heat compromised.
Might look at quarter bets too when the draw comes out.
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