Posted:
#51
33-19
overslept and gonna be with the fam rest of the day for the holiday so no time for writeups
Osaka ML +108
Slam Time!
Posted:
#58
Shame Linda couldn't close it out I was really rooting for her.
Jpeg 2-0 -155
This is not a good matchup for Emma. I had been really underestimating her until she beat Kalinskaya with excellent moving and clutch serving. However, basically everything Emma does Jessica does better they are very similar styles of play. These two played in Cinci a few weeks ago and it was a tight first set that turned into a 2-0 beatdown. Both players have elevated their level since then for this tournament but unless Jess comes out totally flat like she did a couple matches ago against Fernandez then I don't see her dropping a set here. Parlaying this with Carlos ML brings it up to +104 but im just sticking to the 2-0 for an official play.
Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by TBLbolts:
@mrnotoriousman What are your thoughts on Carlos this evening? Thanks.
@mrnotoriousman What are your thoughts on Carlos this evening? Thanks.
The men's side is not really my forte. Carlos is clearly still not at his very top level but he has been getting back there as the tournament goes on and I don't really see any potential for an upset here but Ben can probably at least take a set with the way he has been playing. Doubt it goes to 5 but don't put a ton of stock on my men's predictions I don't watch all the matches and follow the WTA players much more closely.
Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by mrnotoriousman:
34-20 2-1 yesterday Sabalenka/Noskova o21.5 -135 I think this match goes to 3 sets. Linda's serve should be able to carry her through at least one and I think she has a decent chance of winning as Saba has been pretty vulnerable at times this year
34-20 2-1 yesterday Sabalenka/Noskova o21.5 -135 I think this match goes to 3 sets. Linda's serve should be able to carry her through at least one and I think she has a decent chance of winning as Saba has been pretty vulnerable at times this year
Appreciate this win. 
Go JPeg!
Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by mrnotoriousman:
Shame Linda couldn't close it out I was really rooting for her. Jpeg 2-0 -155 This is not a good matchup for Emma. I had been really underestimating her until she beat Kalinskaya with excellent moving and clutch serving. However, basically everything Emma does Jessica does better they are very similar styles of play. These two played in Cinci a few weeks ago and it was a tight first set that turned into a 2-0 beatdown. Both players have elevated their level since then for this tournament but unless Jess comes out totally flat like she did a couple matches ago against Fernandez then I don't see her dropping a set here. Parlaying this with Carlos ML brings it up to +104 but im just sticking to the 2-0 for an official play.
Shame Linda couldn't close it out I was really rooting for her. Jpeg 2-0 -155 This is not a good matchup for Emma. I had been really underestimating her until she beat Kalinskaya with excellent moving and clutch serving. However, basically everything Emma does Jessica does better they are very similar styles of play. These two played in Cinci a few weeks ago and it was a tight first set that turned into a 2-0 beatdown. Both players have elevated their level since then for this tournament but unless Jess comes out totally flat like she did a couple matches ago against Fernandez then I don't see her dropping a set here. Parlaying this with Carlos ML brings it up to +104 but im just sticking to the 2-0 for an official play.
Not even close.
Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by Muffinn:
Quote Originally Posted by mrnotoriousman: Shame Linda couldn't close it out I was really rooting for her. Jpeg 2-0 -155 This is not a good matchup for Emma. I had been really underestimating her until she beat Kalinskaya with excellent moving and clutch serving. However, basically everything Emma does Jessica does better they are very similar styles of play. These two played in Cinci a few weeks ago and it was a tight first set that turned into a 2-0 beatdown. Both players have elevated their level since then for this tournament but unless Jess comes out totally flat like she did a couple matches ago against Fernandez then I don't see her dropping a set here. Parlaying this with Carlos ML brings it up to +104 but im just sticking to the 2-0 for an official play. Not eve close.
Quote Originally Posted by mrnotoriousman: Shame Linda couldn't close it out I was really rooting for her. Jpeg 2-0 -155 This is not a good matchup for Emma. I had been really underestimating her until she beat Kalinskaya with excellent moving and clutch serving. However, basically everything Emma does Jessica does better they are very similar styles of play. These two played in Cinci a few weeks ago and it was a tight first set that turned into a 2-0 beatdown. Both players have elevated their level since then for this tournament but unless Jess comes out totally flat like she did a couple matches ago against Fernandez then I don't see her dropping a set here. Parlaying this with Carlos ML brings it up to +104 but im just sticking to the 2-0 for an official play. Not eve close.
Ya Emma dominated her and just like that a quick loss. Line started at -150 and down to -120 right before the tip.
Posted:
#65
36-21 another 2-1 day live betting Jess down a set saved us.
Ryba/Zheng o20.5 & Rybakina ML +126
Rybakina has been playing great and Zheng will not be able to make another crazy comeback if she lets herself get in a hole against Ryba. I think this one stays close but Rybakina closes it out in 2-3 sets. With the way Zheng has been playing I think she can take at least a set to a 7-5 or 6-7 but just the over was a little too juicy so combined it with Ryba winning.
Posted:
#67
Coco 2-0 +136
Mirra has been in good form this tournament but you could tell from her press conference the other day when she was asked about playing Coco just how much she does not like this matchup. If Mirra can hold up mentally she does have a shot at taking this to 3 but Coco has really stepped up her level recently, is 5-0 in the h2h, and hasn't dropped a set this tournament yet. Potapova was really able to frustrate Mirra and cause a lot of errors and Coco is going to be even more successful at that. The crowd is also going to be on Coco's side and Mirra has shown frustration when the crowd is against her in the past. I can see the o21.5 still hitting in 2 sets here if you want to play it safe and are high on Mirra, but she is not going to win outright.
Posted:
#71
Another play live after dropping a set keeps us on track making profit. I don't know what the line is going to come out at but I will almost certainly be taking Rybakina/Coco o21.5. She likely won't come out flat again, that was the worst first set and a half I've seen from Coco in weeks. There's no way in my mind this doesn't turn into another 3 set battle.
Posted:
#72
38-22
We should continue to have fireworks tonight as for the first time in years the top 4 seeds are all in the semifinals and all 4 of them are playing great tennis to get here.
The last 4 matches between Jess and Saba (two in 2025 and two 2026) have gone to 3 sets with Jess winning the last 2/3 surprisingly. This is also the third straight US Open match that they have played. Sabalenka has not really been showing as much vulnerability as she did earlier in the season but if you watched the match vs Linda, you could clearly see that the issues that caused her to drop out of #1 and have a very lackluster season by her standards have not gone away. Sabalenka also tends to go on streaks where she gets in her own head, yells at her box, gives up a couple games, then locks back in and takes over. Against weaker opponents this barely costs her anything, but against top 10 players it can lead to the loss of a set or the match completely. Pegula has had some really clutch serving especially when she is down that makes it really hard for someone like Saba to get a nice clean return shot back and I want to see her come out with authority like she did against Cirstea. Listening to the interviews with Mark Knowles, it seems like the team has the strategies on lock but it comes down to her execution, which she has struggled a bit with coming out the gate and has taken time to really get in her flow. I'm really rooting for Jess here but I'm just not confident enough with what I've seen out of her so far to actually take the W this time around.
Jpeg/Saba o21.5 -150
Second match of the night should be a total banger (I'll be mad if it's one sided even if my girl Coco is the one giving the beatdown lol). Rybakina has been playing the most consistent tennis out of the remaining 4 players and she has totally earned the world #1 ranking. These two did play recently in Toronto and it went to Ryba in 3 sets. Those 2nd and 3rd sets there I can't even be mad about, Ryba just levelled up her game and played completely flawless. I'm not expecting to see Coco come out like she did last match and get more DF in a set and a half than she did the rest of the tournament combined, that will be cleaned up and also why I'm going to be taking the over on total aces for the match. 2026 Gauff has been much better at nailing first serves and while statistically she is on par with aces last year, they have come in big at clutch moments like on break points this year. Rybakina will always get her aces no matter if she is playing a top returner I think the line here at 9 total is actually way too low. Mirra really pressured Gauff's forehand right from the beginning of the match and we can assume the Ryba will see how effective that was and do the same herself. It always gets better for Coco as the match goes on but we can probably expect to see a number of early errors on that wing until she settles in and gets a better feel for what is coming. On the other hand, Ryba 100% does not want to be getting into those types of really long rallies that Coco and Mirra had and that's going to make her try and force the ball early and consequentially lead to some of errors of her own. I expect a lot of feeling each other out in the first set and then it is going to be up to who can execute their adjustments and hold up their level mentally and limit bp opportunities with their serve.
Coco -104
Coco/Rybakina o21.5 -160
Coco/Rybakina total aces 9+ -130
Coco 2-1 +350 (half unit here only)
Not counting this as an official play, but a fun parlay:
Jpeg/Saba o21.5
Coco ML
Rams ML
McCaffrey 90+ rush & receiving yards
comes out to +669 on FD and not really far fetched for a 4 banger.
Posted:
#73
2-3 yesterday 40-25 overall. Disappointing ending from Coco after getting the break back and missing the same shot she was making all match. The over on the aces play definitely saved the day from turning into a disaster. I don't usually make men's plays but we are at the semifinals so why not.
Match and both players to win a set - Zverev +130
Shelton/Tiafoe o3.5 sets is a bit juicy but no way this match ends in straight sets imo. Probably Shelton wins so might play match and both to win a set on that one will decide closer to match time. That's also +134 so pretty good value.
Posted:
#75
Quote Originally Posted by Lornie11:
Tailing your Zverev pick. Was thinking he could win in straights but willing to give Karen the benefit of the doubt. Let's get it.
Tailing your Zverev pick. Was thinking he could win in straights but willing to give Karen the benefit of the doubt. Let's get it.
Zverev looks on track to get his second slam win this year but from what I have watched from Karen he has been on point. These two obviously have a long history as they were touted as part of the "next gen" before Sincaraz came along and have played against each other a lot. I think the Zverev -1.5 sets is a lot safer but it's at -220 and I figured Karen has been playing well enough to at least grab a set.
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