Serena -105 :)

How can you not back Serena in this spot? Falling to no. 453 is a tragedy. Quote from her "A baby wont stop me from reclaiming my #1 ranking".. 100% with her on it..

Serena ML big for sure 

Barty Party 

Good luck 

Serena crashed the Barty ... SHES STILL THE QUEEN 

Congrats for not fading the Slam champ.  She might not win this tournament but still hard to pass her up on those odds.  Barty needs to go jump off a bridge.

Don't think you can really blame Barty too much, Serena won this as opposed to Barty beating herself. Serenas winners to unforced errors ratio improved as the match went on - set 1: 0.25 set 2: 0.77 set 3: 1.37. She just started slow and then stepped up when required.

It's becoming clear that Barty isn't so much a mental midget, but rather that she lacks self-belief. In my book there's a difference between the two. A mental midget can crash in any match when the going gets tough, no matter who their opponent is. But a player lacking self-belief will beat who she's suppose to beat, but get the yips when she starts to beat someone who she's intimidated by/thinks she has no right to beat. Barty didn't think she was good enough to beat Serena, so when it looked like she was going to or should: she blew it. Plus clay is easily her worst surface/doesn't suit her game. It's the same for Serena, but obv. Serena has won at RO before & self-belief issues don't feature for her, at least against the likes of Barty.

What your post fails to acknowledge is, as the match went on (& Serena's ratio improved), Barty's effort started to collapse thus the amount of pressure she put on Serena started to ease, making it easier for Serena's w/ue ratio to improve. Barty played a full part in losing, she wasn't simply a spectator to Serena's "greatness".

I took Serena to win this +1200, when she beats Georges she plays shaky Sharapova next.

After that +1200 should give decent change for a hedge depending who Serena plays against.

I disagree, Serena was awful in the first set and only started playing in the 2nd. If she starts the match playing like she did in set two then she'd have won 2-0. Compare set 1 and set 3. There was 5 winners between them in set 1, and 25 in set 3. This match is common to many in Serenas career.

SET 1:   First serve %       | First serve won     | Winners        | unforced errors

Serena: S1: 61% S3 75% | S1: 64% S3: 81% |   S1: 3 S3: 15 | S1:12 S3: 11

Barty: S1: 54% S3: 60%  | S1: 79% S3: 71% |   S1: 2 S3: 10 | S1: 4  S3: 13

Or more likely Pliskova who is a bad matchup for Serena.

Your stats do nothing do disavow my contention (Barty gave away almost twice as many free pts/UE in the 3rd as she did in the first 2 sets combined. That's called giving your opponent a mighty helping hand up), but the nature of this debate is that it has no objective outcome so any further energy entered into isn't going to achieve anything.

Not exactly, it's all about the winners to unforced errors ratio. 4 Unforced errors in S1 just show how little she had to play, 13 in the third set isn't considered bad in wta, choking might see 25+. Rewatch the match. If you aren't open to re-evaluating your opinion once it's made then sure, we can just agree to disagree and i wish you luck with future bets.

However i wonder your thoughts on this, all very similar, looked exactly the same way live as this match.

https://gyazo.com/5ff3d1b849502dcf265d503d4bbdd8da

Or maybe 4 players just choked in the same week to get Serena her 3rd F.O.