My Picks (Long Term Thread)

Basel

Kym 1st set +1.5 games @1.91,   1 unit

Best bet I can make here because I cant take over bets ever as a principle. Kym choked 7-6 5-1 to Djere here 2 years ago.

This year, He started here well in first 2 games, great stats+ home soil. 

Favourite Humbert can be off guard here in first set

Lol

Lost my bet but now winning the game :) Got +3.5 @2.10 live to cover my 1st set bet.

Very tiring betting lately

Mensik ML @1.83 vs popyrin,    1.5 units

Cilic +1.5 games @1.85 vs Tabilo,   1 unit

Tsitsipas -2.5 games @1.68 vs Cerundolo,   3 units

Pick #72: Diallo-Cerundolo over Lost,   -1 unit
Pick #73: Lehecka won ,  +1.14 unit
Pick #74: Kachanov won,   +0.99 unit
Pick #75: Duckworth handicap won,  +0.75 unit
Pick #76: Lehecka lost,   -2.5 units
Pick #77: Paul Dimitrov over lost,  -1 unit
Pick #78: Paul ML won,   +1.16 unit
Pick #79: Kym first set lost,   -1 unit
Pick #80: Mensik won,  +1.25 unit
Pick #81: Cilic handicap lost,   -1 unit
Pick #82:  Tsitsipas handicap won,   +2.04 units

Total for these 11 picks:   +0.83 unit

42W-40L,    TOTAL PNL:  +28.72 units

Looking at Wta Japan

WTA Picks

Schnaider -4 @1.80 vs Tomova,  1 unit

Zeynep ML @1.62,      1.5 units

Zeynep's opponent is tough, dont think will be a pushover

I may regret not taking Iishi +4 as only bet

Watched Ilive Iisshi vs Japanese and Zeynep vs Frech

Frech did not want to play and made Zeynep looked a lot better. Iishi saved every break point in the game where she was underdog and mentally broke her opponent. But she is not great.

By the way Iishi beat Tauson here after losing 1st set 1-6

Schanaider Tomova is more likely to be a pushover game. Perfect draw for Schnaider

Yes I am also taking Isshi +4.5 which is a very big spread in Japanese soil. I admit I made a mistake in Agut-Lehecka game where I took Lehecka ML while it was the same odd with Agut +4 or +4.5

Isshi + 4.5 @1.47 vs Zeynep,   1.5 units

So I have 3 units in the game but my risk is -0.6 to -0.7 unit with reward to app. +1.7 units

Knew it

Pick #83 Won,      +0.8 unit,

Pick #84 Lost,   -1.5 units

Pick #85 Won,    +0.71 unit

44W-41L,    TOTAL PNL:   +28.73 units

Felix 2-0 @1.45 vs Baez,    1 unit

Nakashima +3.5 @1.81 vs Paul,  1 unit

Nakashima +4 @1.57 vs Paul,    1.5 units

Total risk 2.5 units

+4 is safer but I need to increase odds.

Paul won 8 indoor games this year. He won a trophy, has the pressure of playing a US player with h2h 0-3. Also the pressure of needing points for Turin finals.

Nakashima has ZERO pressure. Just on a losing streak and a big underdog here. 

Mannarino +2.5 games @1.83 vs Wawrinka,     1 unit

Pick #86: Felix won,    +0.45 unit

Pick #87: Nakashima hcp won,   +0.81 unit

Pick #88: Nakashima hcp won,   +0.86 unit

47W-41L,   TOTAL PNL:   +30.85 units

Holt +2 @1.79 vs spizziri,   1 unit

Pick #89: Mannarino hcp won,    +0.83 unit

Pick #90: Holt won,   +0.79 unit

49W-41L,             TOTAL PNL: +32.47 units

Nanda ML @1.49 vs Ozan 1 unit

Nanda wasted 7 set points on serve and then lost tb without holding a serve. Ozan held once in tb. Was not expecting this :)

Parlay

Zheng -5 * Boultier -4.5 @1.86,      1.5 units

Botic +3.5 @1.80 vs Tsitsipas,     1.25 units