My Picks (Long Term Thread)

Goals are

1) not to lose money

2) add realistic and humble profits long term

Odds are from Pinnacle at the time of post, written in decimal. Unit size is added

I am a new member, I could not start my own thread yesterday. I had to start posting on tankstevens "Chinese Food "one more deliver" Monday thread yesterday. You can check what I posted.

Record:

4W-1L

+3.04 Units

Interesting debut

Tokyo

Shelton -1.5 sets @2.09 vs Opelka,    1 unit

Tiafoe -1 game handicap @1.99 vs Nakashima,   1 unit

Agut +5@1.65 vs Dimitrov, 1.5 units

Tsitsipas ML@1.59 vs Michelsen, 1 unit

GL

@Kenzito

 Horrible day. 3 lost. Laver cup guys did not want to play.

My most trusted pick was Agut+5 because Dimitrov looked injured in Laver Cup. He withdrew, bet is void

4W-4L,  +0.04 Units

Caught Fils ML @2 on live bet. As previous Laver Cup players Fritz looked dead on court on 3rd set, a lot of double faults and unforced errors. I will not take any pregame bet today as we dont know who is ready to play today.

Cilic-Nishikori and Ruud-Thompson games can be good to bet live. 

Beijing

Rublev wins 2-1 vs Busta @3.75,      0.5 units

Rublev - Busta over 22.5 @2.11,    0.5 units

Zhang wins 2-1 vs Fokina @4,       0.5 units

Zhang vs Fokina over 23.5 @2.14,   0.5 units

Rublev 2-1 and Zhang 2-1 parlay @15,   0.1 units

Busta is horribly horrible

Looks like 2 bagels

1st wins,  +1.375 units

2nd wins,    +0.555 units

3rd loses,   -0.5 units

4th wins,   +0.57 units

5th loses,  -0.1 units

Total for 5 picks +1.9 units

Too bad for Zhang and @15 parlay. If he did not go deep last week he could win this.

7W-6L,  +1.94 units

Nishikori +2.5 games @1.98 vs Thompson,   1 unit

Sinner - Safiullin under 19 games @2.03   1.5 units

Medvedev 2-1 @4.20 vs Mannarino,  0.5 units

Medvedev - Mannarino over 20 @2,   0.5 units

Agut +2 games @1.97 vs Lehecka,   0.33 units

Agut-Lehecka over 23 @2.06,    0.33 units

Agut 2-1 wins @5 vs Lehecka,   0.5 units

Cobolli - Kotov over 22.5 @1.95,    0.5 units

Cobolli 2-1 @3.80 vs Kotov,      0.5 units

Cobolli 2-1 & Agut 2-1 parlay @19     0.1 units

Cobolli 2-1 & Medvedev 2-1 parlay @16.15,    0.1 units

Medvedev 2-1 & Agut 2-1 parlay @21,   0.1 units

Nishikori ML @2.38 vs Thompson,   0.5 units( I have 1 unit at Kei +2.5 games that the only reason why I am not putting 1.5 units on ML)

Cerundolo ML @2.27 vs Khachanov,     1.5 units

Nishi ML & Cerundolo ML parlay @5.40,     0.25 units

These dogs are my favourites in these matches, surprised with the odds actually

Apart from big Nishikori bet, Bad day for me. I sholud take 2-1 to favourite, but decided Agut is better at 3rd sets. I should take 2-1 to Sinner too.

Nishioka +2.5 games @1.91 vs Rune,   1 unit

I need to rely on 2-outcome side bets more than 4-outcome set scores and over/unders

Choker after choker

Cerundolo could not hold at 6-5 40-15. He did not serve well.so tiebreaks were risky, he got behind 4-0 but catched, even had a set point in tb, but lost 11-9

Nishikori +2.5 games @1.93,   2.5 units

Hope Nishi is fit and Rune tanks at least one set. Important tournament for Nishikori, nothing here for Rune. He is eyeing on European indoor tournaments

Nishikori lost 5-7 from 5-3. 

I covered on live bet, knowing I have exyremely bad luck lately. Unreal choker players run for me 

For unit size Play of the year probably. Will try to get out of this bad run. Watched both yesterday.

Alcaraz -4.5 games @1.55 vs Khachanov,      20 units

Hopefully this wins and I return back to normal unit size betting

From post #13

1st pick win +0.98 u

2nd pick lost -1.5 u

3rd pick lost -0.5u

4th pick win +0.5u

5th pick lost -0.33u

6th pick win +0.33u

7th pick lost -0.5u

8th pick lost -0.5u

9th pick lost -0.5u

10th pick lost -0.1u

11th pick lost -0.1u

12th pick lost -0.1u

13th pick win +1.88u

14th pick lost -1.5u

15th pick lost -0.25u

16th pick lost -1u

17th pick lost -2.5u

18th pick win +11u

Total for 18 picks +5.31 units

12W-18L, +7.25 units

Nishikori was heartbreaking yesterday for 2.5 units. He had to see 6 games in set 3, he was up 5-3 but lost 5-7

I will watch Replays of Alcaraz and Medvedev and make a big bet tomorrow

Alcaraz -2.5 games @1.47, vs Medvedev 4 units

Alcaraz wins

13W - 18L,   +9.13 units

Bu +6 games @1.50 vs Sinner ,       0.5 unit

Very small bet unit size, Chinese played dope versus Rublev

I am thinking about taking Sinner tomorrow against Alcaraz so watching this game will be a preparation for me to tomorrow

Sinner needs to cover 7 game handicap before tough final against Alcaraz

Bu +6 wins

14W-18L,   +9.38 units

Alcaraz-Sinner over 22.5 games @1.83,   2 units