My Picks (Long Term Thread)

Sabalenka -3.5 @1.79 vs Zheng,      1 unit

Fernandez ML @1.85 vs Schnaider,        1 unit

Fernandez Schnaider over 21.5 @ 1.78,    0.5 unit

Humbert ML @1.73 vs Karen,      3 units

@JoseAlonso787

 GL in your plays

Karen will play 14th game in 17 days in 3 different countries. Let that sink in :) He should feel accomplished by now. He did not play anyone in red-hot form except Draper. And he did not come to a tiebrea, win 6 games in a set. Karen is a former champ but had bad result last 3 years.

Humbert plays incredible this week. He is the 2nd Frenchie in semis in Paris after 7 years after Bennettau. And if he wins maybe a decade for the first Frenchie in final. In last 3 years he had 2 good runs but lost to Zverev and Raonic in very tight games. Crowd is behing him like in a football game. Even his medical timeout was not official when Thompson serving 6-5 for set 2 but umpire and officials let him take the time to abrupt Thompson's momentum. So he gets a support from there too.

The biggest issue is his low tiebreak win percentage in 2024. His losses to Raonic and Zverev here in last 3 years were due to losing tiebreaks if I remember correctly. However he won 1 yesterday against a good tiebreak player, Thompson. 

I may increase my bet size according to how my previous bets result

Pick #131: Leylah lost,    -1 unit

Pick #132: Leylah over lost,    -0.5 unit

Rune +3 @1.82 vs Zverev,      2 units

Stressful day. All 3 remaining bets can win or lose. Hope I am on the right sides

Pick #133:  Sabalenka hcp won,    +0.79 unit

Pick #134: Humbert won,   +2.19 units

Pick #135: Rune hcp lost,    -2 units

Schnaider 1st Set Winner @1.68 vs Boulter,     1.5 units

Boulter has 2 titles this year where she lost the first set in final

Schnaider has 8 Losses this year in which she won 1st set

She bageled Lamens then lost the second set in quarter final

I thought about -1.5 games in first set too but closing the set can be an issue when up a break. She needed 6 set points on her serve vs Leylah

Losing 1st set cannot affect Boulter mentally as others because she won all her finals in 2024 in similar circumstances, 

Pick #136: Scnaider first set won,    +1.02 unit

77W-59L,      TOTAL PNL:  +42.62 units

Metz

Bonzi ML * Moutet ML Parlay @1.63,     1.6 units

Humbert +3.5 games @1.62 vs Zverev,         3.25 units

Humbert +3 games @1.75 vs Zverev     1.75 units

Total risk on Humbert hcp:    5 units

Another bet for the game

Zverev to win and total over 19.5 games @1.70,    2 units

Absolute disaster by me on bankroll management and making the bet while I had all the info necessary

Cilic +3.5 @1.58 vs Lehecka,   10 units

Michelsen 2-0 @1.65 vs Gasquet,    10 units

Lets go