French Open 2021

@Packersbackers thanks for the moring sweep

Off day today, PB?

@jvarghese

 Yes, im just watching the Zverev match to see how he plays for the next match.

I know a lot of guys here are riding Tsitsi hard with future tickets, so today is all about Tsitsi/Med later on.

Nice win for Zidansek, Badosa just ran out of steam, and Pavyluchencova is having the run of her life in the weakest field of a slam in ages so good for her

Im set up really nicely if Coco and Swiatek play in the semis 

Appreciate the response and the patience!

Tsitsi Opa ... 1 more set please 

Medvedev with the underhand serve at the end   

@ThisIsAnfield

 classic fu move to the one guy he hates the most...he was up 40-0 in that game then forgot he needed one more 

Mev pulling a Kyrgios!!!

at what point is backing Rafa live worth it? currently 3-4 on servie in the 3rd set with live odds -350 Rafa...if he loses this set, i suspect Nadal will be -125...can Mighty Mouse really pull a Soderling? This is 1000% best case scenario for anyone holding Tsitsi futures 

Nevermind, Rafa ended up winning the 4th set 6-4...game set match now

@packersbackers

 Only a matter of time until Mighty Mouse lost his serve that set. Oh well. Still think tsitsipas future looks good... and I'll take my scwartzman +9 to the bank! 

Rafa is such a killer... his opponents (outside of big 3/few others) don't stand a chance in the deciding set.. so much stronger mentally. And of course just a clay court god 

Any opinion on Djoko/Berrettini match?

Djoker in 3 sets

Djoker on the spread

Just my leans, not betting it though

These seem like ages ago...patience is not usually my virtue...being square aint so bad.

To win quarter:

 Djoker -175...17.5u 

Nadal -400...40u 

If Sakkari and Tsitsi win, shots of Ouzo for everyone...put it on my bill 

Great analyses  

-400 is a high price to pay, but all the same when it comes to Nadal at this event, it’s sorry of free money, now isn’t it??

@packersbackers

 did you REALLY have those futures? I am not worthy to even be here.

I had Halep/Sissypants from like weeks ago. Big tits Halep(reduced those bad boys...REALLY? WHY?) dropped out but my book still has the bet and wont cancel lit. 

I renamed it the "Nadal Open" years ago.  As a fan of the sport but not a student, someone please explain to me why Nadal is so dominant at this event/surface and no one can figure out how to beat him over the past 15 years.

Packer is gonna answer you, but I get to go first (age and blood alchohol level make it so)

3 things

1. spin rate. That buggy-whip forehand  he uses all the time....its a heavy ball and bounces high. Hard to find power if the ball is above your shoulders.

2. Mental. The guy clearly has mental health issues and I am not qualified to diagnose them, but the universe has magically aligned them to create a relentless 1 vs 1 competetive fighting machine. Fearless, relentless, 100% effort 100% of the time. Scary really

3. He is accurate. Nothing else to say there....the ball is just far enough out of reach to make you feel uncomfortable.

@Oxcarz

page 2, post #33 of this thread...all there to see how i tried to nail it based on quarters.

your Halep wager should be cancelled/void at the end of the event...if they don't, you should make a fuss because it's a clear refund with any legit book...i also got my Osaka futures refunded but that required me talking to my account manager online...it was the fair thing to do and ultimately they agreed because many online books have done the same.

@papamo...great question!

Ox summed it up perfectly...not much I can add, but i'll just free flow my thoughts:

Rafa grew up on the red clay, it's part of his dna...nobody else on tour can say the same, atleast not on par to his natural talent on clay...spin rate is the main factor...his massive forehand topspin on this surface acts like a springboard on the clay when it hits the court, causing it to massively kick high and thus out of most players comfort zone and they are subsequently always playing on the defensive in most rallies, giving Rafa full control of most points...his mental game is epic because he literally wants to win every single point no matter what the score line is...i have seen him turn 40-0 return games into the quickest breaks of serve because the opponent just lets up and assumes the game is won...never is that the case with Nadal...the pressure to hold one's serve on red clay when playing rafa is too stressful in a 3/5 set match for almost any player over the past 2 decades...Nadal's stamina is also unparalleled over the past 2 decades...he gets stronger when he sees his opponent is fading, it's phenomenal...go back and find any 5 set match he played, and you will rarely see his quality of tennis dip at all due to mental or physical fatigue...and I believe after he realized his sheer dominance at this event, his OCD has enabled him to live his entire life to focus on winning this one event year after year...it's his personal challenge to set a type of sports historic domination that has never been seen in the history of sports...his ego is massive, but not in a rude or obnoxious way...he's always been about fair play and respecting the game and the opponent and umpire and fans and ballboys and and and...in my opinion there's absolutely nothing not to love about him with respect to the game of tennis...i've been blessed and spoiled to be able to watch every single big match of his entire career, along with Roger and Novak's...when these 3 hang it up, my overall interest in the game will take a massive hit.

I would like to give my respect and aknowledgement of Robin Soderling...many hated him for personality issues, but you had to respect just how good he got from dedication to training and the desire to break into the big three club...we as tennis fans were truly robbed of a huge talent in Soderling who was just coming into his prime when a really rare form of mono completely changed his tennis life forever at such an early age...if you have spare time, bookmark this video of one of the best clay court matches ever played in the history of the sport:

thank you for your time and attention...class dismissed 

@Bettingtips010 thank you BT...i really don't know what to say, it's actually quite humbling... i'm just seeing these matches as clear as ever these past 2 weeks...definitely makes for a fun thread when everyone is onboard winning togehter and supporting each other, eh? 

@Caj727  no one will ever tell you to take a -400 wager here straight up, including myself, however i looked at the draw and couldn't make any legit argument to support any other result but Rafa winning his quarter...i realize he could suffer a freak injury and i'd be out 40u...but historically speaking, he doesn't get injured on clay so it was as safe a bet as i could ask for...free money no, but a very high probability to win his quarter yes

Great job @packersbackers nicely done ,keep it up great seeing you share your plays and futures which ever sport it is I’m always looking forward to the plays . Thank you always buddy you and a select few have helped me out plenty on the forum 

Oh man...tnx for those Soderling vids...I was a huge fan. SOOOOO tragic with that mono issue.

And Rafa stamina.....I would add that too, Packer.

I never acknowleged Uncle Tony...I just thought he was a family drag-along entourage to give poor Tony an income. But when you realize how perfectly alligned Rafa's  strenghts/mental "issues" are for 1 vs 1 sports, and the fact that Tony AND Rafa were born to play football (soccer), I have to believe that Tony foresaw how well his nephew would do in tennis...Tony had an eye, I tell you. 

That team vs individual sports thing is real. In Argentina where I grew up, it was SO much fun to be on a team (comaraderie, soclal interactions, less pressure win or loose.....tennis? Different world. You are out there alone and afraid and exposed and naked. So few kids thrive there. I swear, Uncle Tony had an instinct for that and saw Rafa as being perfectly built for 1 vs 1.