2025 Tennis Picks from the King

Been a busy year for me up til last month.  Jumping back into the ATP & WTA swing.  Will post plays here for the remainer of the year.

.75* Mboko +1.5 sets (-130) vs Gauff

.25* Mboko +210 vs Gauff

Interesting to note, Gauff was a -1100 favorite when these two met 3 months ago in Italy.  She's a -245 favorite today.  Gauff's double fault and unforced error rate is way above the norm of late.  Mboko playing some really good tennis and will have the home crowd behind her.

Welcome back with a 

@UnderdogKing

 Nice job bro

Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

.75* Mboko +1.5 sets (-130) vs Gauff 

 

.25* Mboko +210 vs Gauff 

Sets: (1-0) +.75u

ML: (1-0) +.53u

1* Muchova +150 vs Keys

@UnderdogKing

 Sets 1-0 is that meaning she wins at least one set? Or the first set, sorry for my ignorance brother

His play is on Muchova ml

@jvarghese

 Thank u

@jvarghese

 I see the ML play play but sets 1-0 does that mean he's playing her to win the first set?

lol that’s his record. He’s 1-0 on this thread set betting and 1-0 on ML bets. Both plays were from the Mboko match

Thought I'd split up the Sets and ML plays for tracking.  Provides better record analysis long term.  I typically play +1.5 sets rather than the game handicap.    

Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

1* Muchova +150 vs Keys

That one could have went either way.

Sets: (1-0) +.75u

ML: (1-1) -.47u

.75* Kostyuk +1.5 sets (-110) vs Rybakina

.25* Kostyuk +262

Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

.75* Kostyuk +1.5 sets (-110) vs Rybakina 

.25* Kostyuk +262

So, wager grading outcomes for tennis retirements vary by sportsbook. I have 4 outs and all but 1 consider ML wagers to have action after 1 set is completed.  The other requires the full match to be completed.  Sets and games are voided if there's a retirement.  Going forward I'll grade as such.

Sets: (1-0) +.75u

ML: (1-2) -.72u

.75* Rublev +1.5 sets (-160) vs Fritz

.25* Rublev + 186

Quote Originally Posted by UnderdogKing:

.75* Rublev +1.5 sets (-160) vs Fritz 

.25* Rublev + 186

Sets: (1-1) -.45u

ML: (1-3) -.97u

Lay the chalk. 

1* Sinner -175 vs Alcaraz

@UnderdogKing

 Sinner.......

Sets & Games: (1-1) -.45u

ML: (1-3) -.97u

1* Golubic +120 vs Haddad Maia

.75* Riedi +5.5 games (-165) vs Cerundolo

.25* Riedi +180

1* Krejcikova +105 vs Navarro

@UnderdogKing

 Like it. Probably gonna be on it myself 

Opinions: Darderi +2.5 sets (+295), Shelton/Mannarino over 3.5 sets (-130), Paolini +100

Laying the chalk

1* Bublik -130 vs Paul

1* Parlay: Munar -230/Zverev -325 (-115)

Sets & Games: (2-1) +.3u

ML: (4-5) -.62u

1* Krejcikova -130 vs Townsend

Sets & Games: (2-1) +.3u

ML: (4-5) -.62u

1* Krejcikova -130 vs Townsend

Interesting to note, Lehechka is 1-7 vs left handers this season.  These 2 have never met up, and Mannarino can be a tricky opponent.  Lean to the lefty on the plus games handicap. 

Sets & Games: (2-1) +.3u

ML: (5-5) +.38u

Absolutely love this play.  I've been looking for an opportunity to fade Gauff and the time is now.

1* Osaka +125 vs Gauff

Night cap opinion on the over 21.5 games between Rybakina and Vandrousova.  Neither player has dropped a set in this tournament.  Will be a tightly contested match.  Lean to Rybakina to pull out a narrow victory with at least 1 tiebreak.