jabroni,
Let me tackle some of your questions. Sounds like you have a pretty good grasp of the system already. System C looks to be the best bet this time of year. So far this season, it appears that the most common line is 5.5 and the reason so many of the road initiated chases are doing so poorly might be because those teams are on a long road trip, going into OT in the first of a long series and then giving up a lot of goals on the road in the first two games following the OT game. Since the lines most often are 5.5, the system says play under, however we are seeing many of the road-initiated series, those applying to systems A and B, but not C and D, go over the total and lose.
You should stick to one system. I play system C small. My unit is $20. I started tracking back around the Christmas break, so so far I cannot say I'm making too much money on the system yet. I back-test this for last season, the stats are listed near the top of these posts. However, from season to season, due to rule changes and other factors, lines may suddenly start going higher or lower, which will skew some of the series records. For instance, three seasons ago, these systems did poorly because there were many 5.5 games going over the total. As linesmakers adjust toward the middle of the season, the scores were hitting under 6 and 6.5. This year seems to be just the right balance of over and unders, and most cling to around the 5.5 line - which is good for a chase.
If you decide to play C, then I would suggest you wait until tomorrow. Playing different systems will only take away the bankroll. Furthermore, you should only jump in starting with game 1 chases, however, we are a long way into the season, and it appears that the systems are cooling off. They are not as hot as they were the first two months of the season, when the linesmakers were attempting to "feel" out the teams.
I will have to go back and look up the records, but it appears that the majority of game 1's end up losing, while the majority of the remaining game 2's are winners. I will post the records in the next few days. But nonetheless, I think the system is a solid one this season.
Depending on the game in the chase we bet either 1 unit (for game 1), 2 units (for game 2) or 4 units (for game 3). In the situations where we are chasing overlapping series with the same team, we have to identify, which qualify as A and B and which qualify as C and D plays. Case in point, New Jersey and Atlanta tomorrow night. Since the Game 3 chase for New Jersey is a road-initiated series and we have already lost system B with that series, this game only applies to system A plays. The game 2 chase with New Jersey is still alive in all four systems, but it's the road initiator that seperates New Jersey's game 3 chase into a system A play only. Yes, the units are added, so for system A players, the New Jersey game tomorrow is 6 units.
The reason everyone isn't doing it is because either they don't know to look in here OR it may be they are thinking it's too late into the year to gain any type of profit. I wish I had started at the beginning of the season, but I only stumbled across this right before Christmas and decided to back test before posting. Hope this helps out some.
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