T/R Home/Away Power Rankings

Thanx

If anyone wants a good bet tracker, here's a link for one I use: 

I may have found plays based on TR rankings that last year would have netted 28.1 units.  That's about the best I could find.  It is football, the most wagered sport plus the shortest season, so I'll take 28 units.

That said, this was only from last year, so I'm not confident in it yet.  I am going to go back and do other years but I'm going to skip 2011-12 as that was the lock out season, though come back and do it later on.

It's taking awhile cause I have to plug in numbers manually from 5 different rankings for all 17 weeks.  At least I have the formulas to get the info out of it.

The Monday Night post was a washout.  That was from 2003/4.  2012/3 went 6-10-1.

I do have stats...percentages of the best teaser plays for those that do them.  If you google them, you will see all the same types: Road Favorite teased down to...blah, blah, blah.  I wanted to see for myself.  I have the numbers for the last 10 years.  The best overall in the last 10 years, with at least 20 plays is teasing the Home Favorite from -10.5 to -4.5: 21-5 80.8%.  The best Road tease is Road Favorite -6 to PK: 37-9 80.4%

After I finish that additional part for 2012/13, I will back test them, for at least a couple of years....and if it works....I will start a new thread with it.

I will make a spreadsheet, and will have time to tweak it , as the first plays don't start until a team has played at least 5g on the road or at home...depending on the play.

During a 3g set (Home or Away), Ranks #1-15 I am chasing for a win, #16-30 I am fading, or chasing a loss).  The filter is that the team must have a similar ATS as what I'm playing.  If I'm playing for a win?  That team's ATS must be above 50% AND have 2 more wins than losses. The opposite for fading losers

Example:

Cleveland is on a 3g road trip.  On the FIRST game for a play, the Cavs rank 16, and has a 13-15 road record.  We are therefore fading Cleveland for 3 games, or chasing a loss.

If the Cavs road record was 13-14 (one game difference), we would not have a play.

For Away games/plays, the system went 74-4, +40.96u

For Home game/plays, the system went 89-7, +31.18u

This does not include any games that are in both systems (fade one team/chase the other etc.).  I will look closer at filtering out those losses, but not until after I backtest more years.  The first plays seem to be no earlier than toward the end of November.

I will be doing a version of this year, on another thread, but just wanna get a discussion going on this one to let you know the plan.

First, last year's version didn't backtest well, so I'm tossing it. We will be, for now, using the 'Overall' rankings.  It backtested the best out of all that I have backtested.

Second, we will be playing only HOME teams.

Third, we will be playing ALL games of a series

Fourth, it won't be a chase, but rather we will use labby lines.

I only backtested the labby for May 2-21 in 2011.  As a whole, playing it straight, during that time frame, using these filters, it went 44-35, -5.17. I was able to clear 11 lines for 22 units using the labby.  So I looked for rankings that had at least a 50% win percentage on my filters.

I will get into how I do the labby on the new thread..I'm still debating how I want to do it.  I don't like placing a 5 unit bet on a -200 favorite, know what I mean?  That's another reason, people hate chases.  One series, with 3 losses...all at -200, is -26 units.

This system doesn't start until the first series starting in May.  I can't make a spreadsheet until after the season starts.  I will make a sheet (or try) so you can easily manage your lines, if you choose to use them.

you can lock individual tabs now with the new sheets.

but you cannot view the sheets on the Google Drive app.