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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14

    «First Previous 8910 ... 202122 Next Last»
    Danrules24
    McVigorish
    rivermonsterz
    730champ
    takethepnts
    ...
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    Danrules24
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 1:20 AM ET #176

    Thursday results: - Montreal wins on the double dip C game, LA wins on double dip B game.

    No plays Friday. We have possible plays on Saturday with Phx (Edm) and Calgary (Wash).

     

    Regular system:

    Record 13-0

    A: 11-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Thursday results: - Montreal wins on the double dip C game, LA wins on double dip B game.

    No plays Friday. We have possible plays on Saturday with Phx (Edm) and Calgary (Wash).

     

    Regular system:

    Record 13-0

    A: 11-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

     
    McVigorish
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 2:02 PM ET #177

    I was afraid the Habs were going to choke us!  WOO to clearing THAT off my labby 
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    I was afraid the Habs were going to choke us!  WOO to clearing THAT off my labby 
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 2:44 PM ET #178

    Quote Originally Posted by McVigorish:

    I was afraid the Habs were going to choke us!  WOO to clearing THAT off my labby 

    That was interesting, but they pulled it out. I think that's the beauty of running labby lines on the A, B and C games. For me that was slightly more than a normal bet since it was the first C game played. Would not have been comfortable on a Martingale chase going to game C. I'm definitely employing this strategy for any chase system I use going forward. It would have made the RPI baseball system less hazardous.

    On another note, I've been continuing the top favorite system that English Gent did last year, but for OT/SO included. He ran two which also included the lower odds for regulation only that didn't fare as well. I'm running a 4 number line using 1/2 units and doing quite well. Not getting rich, but grinding out profits is fine by me. My betting has been sporatic since I've already taken 2 trips this hockey season but I'm up 7.27 units in the 13 days that I've been able to bet.  

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by McVigorish:

    I was afraid the Habs were going to choke us!  WOO to clearing THAT off my labby 

    That was interesting, but they pulled it out. I think that's the beauty of running labby lines on the A, B and C games. For me that was slightly more than a normal bet since it was the first C game played. Would not have been comfortable on a Martingale chase going to game C. I'm definitely employing this strategy for any chase system I use going forward. It would have made the RPI baseball system less hazardous.

    On another note, I've been continuing the top favorite system that English Gent did last year, but for OT/SO included. He ran two which also included the lower odds for regulation only that didn't fare as well. I'm running a 4 number line using 1/2 units and doing quite well. Not getting rich, but grinding out profits is fine by me. My betting has been sporatic since I've already taken 2 trips this hockey season but I'm up 7.27 units in the 13 days that I've been able to bet.  

     
    rivermonsterz
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 3:54 PM ET #179

    Hey Dan,

    Do you have a link to the top favourite system thread?

    Cheers, RM
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    Hey Dan,

    Do you have a link to the top favourite system thread?

    Cheers, RM
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 3:59 PM ET #180

    River, last year's thread was https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101531441&page=1

     

     

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    River, last year's thread was https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101531441&page=1

     

     

     
    730champ
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 4:11 PM ET #181

    YOU TAKE THE TOP FAVORITE OF THE DAY AND CHASE FOR 3 GAMES DAN?
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    YOU TAKE THE TOP FAVORITE OF THE DAY AND CHASE FOR 3 GAMES DAN?
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 4:42 PM ET #182

    Quote Originally Posted by 730champ:

    YOU TAKE THE TOP FAVORITE OF THE DAY AND CHASE FOR 3 GAMES DAN?

    Nope. I take the top fave and play everyday on a labby line (not agressive line). If you win, you cross off the 2 outside numbers. If you lose, you add what you lost to the end of the line and bet that along with the first number the next day. Start a new line wonce it clears or if you are left with just 1 of the original 4 numbers of 1/2 unit. If you have only 1 number left and it's at least one unit, bet that number. Not exciting, but you can grind out some profits. If the line gets too large, just split into 2 lines to reduce amount bet. I don't want to do that which is why I'm using smaller unit size.

    If two teams are tied for top fave pick the one that you feel best about.  

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by 730champ:

    YOU TAKE THE TOP FAVORITE OF THE DAY AND CHASE FOR 3 GAMES DAN?

    Nope. I take the top fave and play everyday on a labby line (not agressive line). If you win, you cross off the 2 outside numbers. If you lose, you add what you lost to the end of the line and bet that along with the first number the next day. Start a new line wonce it clears or if you are left with just 1 of the original 4 numbers of 1/2 unit. If you have only 1 number left and it's at least one unit, bet that number. Not exciting, but you can grind out some profits. If the line gets too large, just split into 2 lines to reduce amount bet. I don't want to do that which is why I'm using smaller unit size.

    If two teams are tied for top fave pick the one that you feel best about.  

     
    takethepnts
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 5:34 PM ET #183

    Smart MM Dan , Thanks for the great system and recordkeeping :-)
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    Smart MM Dan , Thanks for the great system and recordkeeping :-)
     
    rivermonsterz
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    Posted: Oct. 25, 2013 - 11:35 PM ET #184

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:


    If two teams are tied for top fave pick the one that you feel best about.  



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:


    If two teams are tied for top fave pick the one that you feel best about.  



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 
     
    730champ
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 12:08 AM ET #185

    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 



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    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 



     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 3:14 AM ET #186

    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 

    I usually compare lines at other books and pick the one that is highly favored in most of them. Honestly, sometimes it's just a judgement call. I went with Pitt tonight and lost.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:



    Is there a system for picking the better favourite 

    I usually compare lines at other books and pick the one that is highly favored in most of them. Honestly, sometimes it's just a judgement call. I went with Pitt tonight and lost.

     
    System_Grind3r
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 11:58 AM ET #187

    People did this in MLB and I do not remember it ending too well. Overall most seasons will profit, but you should create a stop loss at some point when your line(s) get too heavy. Can your labby line handle 5 or 6 straight losses at -200 juice? 

    10-10-10-10-40-100-220-460-


    You get the picture. I assure you it does happen and in MLB i seen 8 out of 11 lose which was very bad for the labby. I wont be as severe since you are running multiple lines or columns. Just a word of caution. This year it would be doing great as favorites seem to be killing it. 
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    People did this in MLB and I do not remember it ending too well. Overall most seasons will profit, but you should create a stop loss at some point when your line(s) get too heavy. Can your labby line handle 5 or 6 straight losses at -200 juice? 

    10-10-10-10-40-100-220-460-


    You get the picture. I assure you it does happen and in MLB i seen 8 out of 11 lose which was very bad for the labby. I wont be as severe since you are running multiple lines or columns. Just a word of caution. This year it would be doing great as favorites seem to be killing it. 
     
    System_Grind3r
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 12:01 PM ET #188

    so just phx than it looks like.. 
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    so just phx than it looks like.. 
     
    Riceboi
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 12:03 PM ET #189

    Dan can you show how you run your labby line? Thanks
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    Dan can you show how you run your labby line? Thanks
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 1:30 PM ET #190

    Phx A game is the play today.  
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Phx A game is the play today.  
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 1:37 PM ET #191

    Quote Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

    People did this in MLB and I do not remember it ending too well. Overall most seasons will profit, but you should create a stop loss at some point when your line(s) get too heavy. Can your labby line handle 5 or 6 straight losses at -200 juice? 

    10-10-10-10-40-100-220-460-


    You get the picture. I assure you it does happen and in MLB i seen 8 out of 11 lose which was very bad for the labby. I wont be as severe since you are running multiple lines or columns. Just a word of caution. This year it would be doing great as favorites seem to be killing it. 

    You are correct, a losing streak at -200 would get ugly. This is why I suggested using a low unit size to start with. You need to be able to have the bankroll to handle the losing streak that will eventually happen. in your above scenario someone could start a second line and just cut in half the loses from line 1. I'm not an expert at labby lines , I just bet with what I'm comfortable risking. 
    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by System_Grind3r:

    People did this in MLB and I do not remember it ending too well. Overall most seasons will profit, but you should create a stop loss at some point when your line(s) get too heavy. Can your labby line handle 5 or 6 straight losses at -200 juice? 

    10-10-10-10-40-100-220-460-


    You get the picture. I assure you it does happen and in MLB i seen 8 out of 11 lose which was very bad for the labby. I wont be as severe since you are running multiple lines or columns. Just a word of caution. This year it would be doing great as favorites seem to be killing it. 

    You are correct, a losing streak at -200 would get ugly. This is why I suggested using a low unit size to start with. You need to be able to have the bankroll to handle the losing streak that will eventually happen. in your above scenario someone could start a second line and just cut in half the loses from line 1. I'm not an expert at labby lines , I just bet with what I'm comfortable risking. 
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 5:51 PM ET #192

    Saturday results: Phx wins on the A game. Only 3 game homestand so no double dip. Next possible plays are Monday with Minn and Van.

    Regular system:

    Record 14-0

    A: 12-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Saturday results: Phx wins on the A game. Only 3 game homestand so no double dip. Next possible plays are Monday with Minn and Van.

    Regular system:

    Record 14-0

    A: 12-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

     
    TwistedMath
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 11:31 PM ET #193

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Saturday results: Phx wins on the A game. Only 3 game homestand so no double dip. Next possible plays are Monday with Minn and Van.

    Regular system:

    Record 14-0

    A: 12-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0



    I'm curious why you didn't play Calgary?  Today was their first game of a 3 game home stand.  Am I missing something here?

    I skipped Phoenix because the line I saw was -160.  I think therizz said he doesn't play anything unless it's -130 or better? 

    I'm a little new at following this system so not trying to call you out.  Trying to make sure I'm playing it right. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    Saturday results: Phx wins on the A game. Only 3 game homestand so no double dip. Next possible plays are Monday with Minn and Van.

    Regular system:

    Record 14-0

    A: 12-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0

    Double dip:

    Record 5-0

    A: 3-2

    B: 1-1

    C: 1-0



    I'm curious why you didn't play Calgary?  Today was their first game of a 3 game home stand.  Am I missing something here?

    I skipped Phoenix because the line I saw was -160.  I think therizz said he doesn't play anything unless it's -130 or better? 

    I'm a little new at following this system so not trying to call you out.  Trying to make sure I'm playing it right. 
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 26, 2013 - 11:54 PM ET #194

    Quote Originally Posted by TwistedMath:



    I'm curious why you didn't play Calgary?  Today was their first game of a 3 game home stand.  Am I missing something here?

    I skipped Phoenix because the line I saw was -160.  I think therizz said he doesn't play anything unless it's -130 or better? 

    I'm a little new at following this system so not trying to call you out.  Trying to make sure I'm playing it right. 

    You have it backwards. The home favorite needs to be at least a -130 favorite. So Phx qualified at -160 but Calgary at +115 does not.

    If you bet Calgary, I hope they pull it out for you, up 3-2 at the end of 2.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by TwistedMath:



    I'm curious why you didn't play Calgary?  Today was their first game of a 3 game home stand.  Am I missing something here?

    I skipped Phoenix because the line I saw was -160.  I think therizz said he doesn't play anything unless it's -130 or better? 

    I'm a little new at following this system so not trying to call you out.  Trying to make sure I'm playing it right. 

    You have it backwards. The home favorite needs to be at least a -130 favorite. So Phx qualified at -160 but Calgary at +115 does not.

    If you bet Calgary, I hope they pull it out for you, up 3-2 at the end of 2.

     
    TwistedMath
    TwistedMath
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 9:10 AM ET #195

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    You have it backwards. The home favorite needs to be at least a -130 favorite. So Phx qualified at -160 but Calgary at +115 does not.

    If you bet Calgary, I hope they pull it out for you, up 3-2 at the end of 2.



    Ah I see.  Thanks for clearing that up.  I'm glad I checked with you first. 

    I did end up getting lucky with Calgary!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    You have it backwards. The home favorite needs to be at least a -130 favorite. So Phx qualified at -160 but Calgary at +115 does not.

    If you bet Calgary, I hope they pull it out for you, up 3-2 at the end of 2.



    Ah I see.  Thanks for clearing that up.  I'm glad I checked with you first. 

    I did end up getting lucky with Calgary!
     
    dwhickman
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 11:45 AM ET #196

    Can somebody tell me why FLA wasnt a play on friday?  They were in game 1 of a 3 game homestand, and line was at -138.
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    Can somebody tell me why FLA wasnt a play on friday?  They were in game 1 of a 3 game homestand, and line was at -138.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 11:59 AM ET #197

    Quote Originally Posted by dwhickman:

    Can somebody tell me why FLA wasnt a play on friday?  They were in game 1 of a 3 game homestand, and line was at -138.

    The 6 game homestand started on 10/17 against Boston. They did not qualify and that nullifies the rest of the homestand. You are looking at just the final 3. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwhickman:

    Can somebody tell me why FLA wasnt a play on friday?  They were in game 1 of a 3 game homestand, and line was at -138.

    The 6 game homestand started on 10/17 against Boston. They did not qualify and that nullifies the rest of the homestand. You are looking at just the final 3. 
     
    dwhickman
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 12:11 PM ET #198

    ugh.  I missed that.  Time to update my SDQL query.  Thanks for taking the time to set me straight.
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    ugh.  I missed that.  Time to update my SDQL query.  Thanks for taking the time to set me straight.
     
    Danrules24
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 12:33 PM ET #199

    Quote Originally Posted by dwhickman:

    ugh.  I missed that.  Time to update my SDQL query.  Thanks for taking the time to set me straight.

    No worries. We are all here to help everyone win. Having lots of eyes on a system helps keep the person posting on point. Always a chance I miss something.

    Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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    Quote Originally Posted by dwhickman:

    ugh.  I missed that.  Time to update my SDQL query.  Thanks for taking the time to set me straight.

    No worries. We are all here to help everyone win. Having lots of eyes on a system helps keep the person posting on point. Always a chance I miss something.

     
     
    TwistedMath
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2013 - 3:07 PM ET #200

    So tomorrow night there are two home stands starting.  Minnesota & Vancouver both start 3 game home stands.  Am I correct that we're just playing the bigger favorite as long as it's over -150? 
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    So tomorrow night there are two home stands starting.  Minnesota & Vancouver both start 3 game home stands.  Am I correct that we're just playing the bigger favorite as long as it's over -150? 
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