The YONS NBA Totals

k,

Just got the SA UNDER at 185! Lets hit both tonight

Found this line movement chart and it looks impressive for your San Antonio play

Well that didn't work out so well... Will try again in a minute

o182 -110 /u182 EVEN Opener 11/27/2008 9:57PM
o182 -108 / u182 -102 11/28/2008 1:26AM
o182 -122 / u182 +112 11/28/2008 4:35AM
o183 -110 / u183 EVEN 11/28/2008 8:02AM
o183 -105 / u183 -105 11/28/2008 8:05AM
o183 -102 / u183 -108 11/28/2008 8:11AM
o183 EVEN / u183 -110 11/28/2008 9:13AM
o183 -105 / u183 -105 11/28/2008 10:10AM
o184 -113 / u184 +103 11/28/2008 10:46AM
o184 -111 / u184 +101 11/28/2008 10:46AM
o184 -109 / u184 -101 11/28/2008 10:50AM
o184.5 -105 / u184.5 -105 11/28/2008 1:42PM
o184.5 -109 / u184.5 -101 11/28/2008 2:25PM

ken , the dallas/laker game what way should i go over or under? 

All I can say is YIKES!

Tomorrows another day!

Thanks for taking the time to post Kenyonlv.

 

 

Both games started out great but was all down hill after that. I seen the scores early and I felt good about them. Oh well I expect to have a few of these days. Here is to better luck tomorrow 

I think that if your number is high, maybe the books know something that we don't know. There is obviously a reason why the line seems way too low and then it sails over. In the NBA it seems like whatever you think is going to happen usually doesn't happen. I wonder if you could look at your record of games that are over a certain number and then go the opposite way on them. I'm thinking that in these cases where the number is way off, the books are setting a trap. Just an idea to maybe track as you go. Thanks for the hard work you put in and good luck for the rest of the season.

Thanks for the support guys ... actually 3 out of 4 started good, the Atl/Tor was doomed from the start.  That SA game went south and I thought that was good most of the way.  LOL

Anyway, I didn't want to change anything while it was winning, but I am tweaking it now.  One change I did was to ignore OT's in the data scores.  That woulda changed tonight and made Atl/Tor a no play and woulda added Sac/Uta as a win.  You have to stay on top of this system ... I'm recalculating slopes and intercepts and will have some winning picks late tonight. 

The OT stats are misleading. You figure whatever points are score just pat the PPG stats. I believe you are making the right decision for the tweak. Keep it up I believe you have a system here that is profitable and that is what matters.

Dude, I really think you have good intentions in your post, but you caught me on a bad night for your "friendly" suggestions.  I have been nothing but courteous on these forums, but now I'm going to rip you a new a$$hole.  You can thank me after a week or two.

First off tell me what your number is, and if its to high or low maybe the books know something that YOU don't know.  Yes, I agree there is obviously a reason why the line seems way to low then it "sails over", maybe like a Tony Parker coming back unannounced.  Dude, if it is obvious then feel free to come in this forum and post it so we ALL can know.  If the NBA was predictable do you think anybody would risk money on the outcome???  Here's a similiar statement, if you have your head up your ass, I bet its dark.

Here's a WAY better idea that would probably make us all richer then any NBA Official ... take your record of games that are over a certain number and then go the opposite way.  Dude, thanks for the slap in the face, I go 10-5 and people make money, myself included, and then 0-4, and you say fade me.  OK, maybe you were right ... tell me this "certain number" and we can all be rich.  LOL

Please tell me more about books setting "traps."  Ok, so the number is way off, hmmmm ... when will you tell us that the number is way off?  Will you please post that, that would be nice to know, and BEFORE the game not after.  Oh, thanks for the tip ... i'll start tracking that as I go.  I'll make a note to myself, "start tracking when the books set a trap."  As far as I know the book sets a number and I can pick above or below taht number at any time ... so I am not trapped.  I can trap them by middling them, the books can only trap themselves, how they heck can they trap the bettor?

Dude, a person sets the line ... there is nothing that says I can't set a better line.  Here are my lines for Sunday which I don't think anybody has out yet.  I challenge you to put out closer lines.

Portland/Detroit (188.5)
Chicago/Philadelphia (186.8)
Houston/Denver (197.8)
New Jersey/Phoenix (211.2)
Toronto/LA Lakers (195.8) 

If you need more time try these lines for Monday ... you should have plenty of time to figure why these lines are obviously off.

Minnesota/Charlotte (181.3)
Orlando/Boston (188.7)
Miami/Golden State (216.1)

Kquinlan, don't take my rant personal ... I am not mad at you, you just posted at a bad time.

k, 

K,

You are the man.
An 0-4 night happens to anyone.
No big deal when the night before you went 5-0 if you ask me.
This is sports gambling, leave those guys alone.
We all know who you are and we all know the work you put into this so let's enjoy the weekend where we'll go 13-2

Haha... I wasn't bashing at all. I'm not offended either so don't worry about it. I just remember you saying that when your number is really high, you are a little worried about it. So i was thinking maybe if your number is above 25 or so, it might be a good time to fade as vegas is trying to sway people to bet the same side you were betting. I know it is just another person setting the line, but lets be honest..... these people know a lot more about how the game will play out than we do no matter how accurate you think your capping is.  My thinking was that maybe you might find that strongest games are between a certain number, such as between 9.5 and 20 while anything above 20 could be a no play or a fade. After reading my above post again i realize that it does sound a little condescending, but that was not my intention at all. I have been following your system for a couple weeks now and it looks really promising. Just thought that this could be another angle that you could track.  Anyways, feel free to ignore me, just felt that i should explain myself a little better.

So far no plays right?