The YONS NBA Totals

This thread is a continuation of my earlier one Titled "NBA O/U System"

 

Day 7 went 3-2 (23-18) overall with yesterday being the only below .500 day so far and 1-1 (8-3) on hot games.  Just barely escaped the dreaded losing day with Pho/OKC going under.

 

I posted earlier that the Boston game may be one to watch, but with the updated stats it fell below the 9.4 rating to 8.6.  I already bet it ... but officially there is only one play so far.

 

Oklahoma City/Cleveland Over 195.5 (16.4)
Chicago/San Antonio Under 191 (8.7)
Golden State/Boston Under 203 (8.6)
Orlando/Philadelphia Under 190.5 (7.5)
Indiana/Houston Under 190.5 (5.8)
Phoenix/Minnesota Over 196 (3.4)
New York/Detroit Under 208.5 (2.3)
New Jersey/Sacramento Over 211 (0.4)
Miami/Portland Over 193 (0.3)
Charlotte/Toronto (191.4)
Milwaukee/Atlanta (188.7)
Memphis/Utah Over (185.6)
Denver/LA Clippers (184.5)

Hey Kenyon, I really like this system, but I was wondering if you still would bet the Cavs over at 200?  Would that make it a play still at 11.9?

Crooked, Yep, that was one of the closest covers yet.

 

WTG Master

 

Kev77, Heck ya ... anything above 9.4 is a go. 

Yep, But GS/Bos turned into a play and lost.  So Den/LAC under 198 is the decider.

....ouch ...0-2 on games over 9.4

OKC/Cle...Over 200 (11.9)

GS/Bos...Under 205 (11.2) 

 

 with Den/LaC Under 198 (13.5) pending...

 

good work kenyon

i really think this system will pay off in the long run

 

everyone give kenyon a

Gas, Sorry you took an L on that one, but it was a W for the system.  If a line is available when I post that means I bet it if it was above 9.4 and I will use that line for the official tally, even if I'm on the short end.  If I don't have a line when I post and the line moves into the 9.4 range I will use the line it was at when I bet.  Like tonight I had GS/Bos under 202 even tho the line moved all the way up to 205.5.  I bet that game before the games were over last night and I think I am going to hold off on doing that again.  Once the line kept moving the other way I knew I was in trouble, but since it closed above the 9.4 rating I will count it.

 

Thanks Hiss Dog ... like I said in the 1st post, Only time will tell.

 

Now, we just need some D in that Clipper game.

...well kenyon...I can only bet with a local book and he opens 1 hour before the first NBA game begins...so if a game has been better than the (9.4) threshold that you have established then I will bet them.

 

  Tonight ........OKC/Cle...over 200 (11.9)...lost

                      GS/Bos....Under 205 (11.2)...lost

                      Den/LAC...Under 198 (13.5)...lost

 

...0-3 on ALL GAMES over (9.4)....

 

......what now????  Bet all of the games regardless of the "threshold"?   I don't have that kind of bankroll... 

I see your predicament Gas ... overall I think you are safe (hard to believe after going 0-3 tonight) with betting anything over 9.4.  By all means don't bet all the games ... the hot picks are doing way better then the overall.  BUT ... I don't plan on betting anymore games that "back door" into a 9.4 such as the Boston Game tonight.  I'll give the public/other bettors credit.  The line was moving the wrong way, so betting the under was probably not a wise move, the books were begging for under money.  I only did it because I bet it so early, before any line moves.  So BEWARE of that in the future.  Of course when the line is moving in my favor your screwed because you can't get a bet in early.

 

Well glad to get that first losing nite done ... I knew it had to come sooner or later.  Seven days of nothing worse then 50-50 was decent, but I want to do better.

 

Day 8  7-6 (30-24) overall 1-2 (9-5) hot picks.  One game for tomorrow.

 

Orlando/Washington Under 200 (11.8)
New Orleans/Denver Over 196.5 (4.3)

 

Better jump on Orl/Was .. already moved a point in my direction ... I got it at 200 now 199.

 

Yea, Happy Thanksgiving !!!

....Orl/Wash is the bet tonight...Under 200 (11.8)

 

but if the line goes less than 200 but threshhold is still above (9.4) then don't bet it....

 

if line goes the other way above 200 then bet it...

....doesn't make any sense ken...

 

...it would seem that as long as the "threshold" number for the game in question was above your (9.4) then it would still be a bet...right...

...does the threshhold number need to be higher?

 

Been watching both systems, bet the wash. under @ 199

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING and thanks for the posts

HeaVin,  WOW 7-0 WTG!!!  I missed seeing that last nite.

 

Gas,  If it starts above (and stays above) the threshold you are ok, to bet it.  It's when it is not in the threshold to begin with then the line change puts it in that you better beware.  You may lose the "squeaker" games with your local book where the rest of us win, but that's the price you pay.  I see it's at 198 now (9.8) I would not bet anything lower then that with your book, maybe 197.5 (9.3)

....Orl/Was....under 198 (9.8)...winner

 

...NO/Den...Over 197 (3.8)...pending

 

I know the last game is not in the "threshhold" range but today is my lucky day!!!!

This is weird, posts are not showing up then showing up later.  HeaVin's did it last nite and now I see Gas's 8:37 am post for the first time.  Gas I think I know where the confusion is ... when I say the line is moving "in my favor" I mean it is looking less attractive.  ie if I bet Orl/Was Under at 200 and it moves to 197.5 then it moved 2.5 points in my favor.  It means the books want money on the over, which is good for my bet at 200.  So your 8:37am post is backwards from what I am saying to you.

 

I'll check all the picks and make a post showing how the line moved and how the picks did, just for shits and giggles, and I am curious now.

11/23 Boston/Toronto 0.5 W
11/21 Orlando/Indiana 1.5 W
11/22 Atlanta/Cleveland 1.5 W
11/27 Orlando/Washington 2.5 W
11/24 Philadelphia/Charlotte 3 W
11/26 Oklahoma City/Cleveland 4 W
11/22 Washington/New York -6 W
11/25 Phoenix/Oklahoma City -3.5 W
11/21 New York/Milwaukee -2.5 W
11/23 Golden State/Philadelphia -0.5 W
11/21 Utah/San Antonio 0 L
11/25 Golden State/Washington 2 L
11/24 Sacramento/Portland 3 L
11/26 Golden State/Boston -3.5 L
11/26 Denver/LA Clippers -0.5 L

 

Ok, here are the results.  If the number is positive it means the line moved in my favor.  It shows in 6 of the wins the line moved in my favor and in 4 of the wins it moved against me.  So I am 6-3 when the lines move with the picks and 4-2 when the line moves against, same % for each case.  It also shows the line moves with my picks in 9 out of the 15 games so far.