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The YONS NBA Totals

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
Yesterday's picks went 2-2 and 1-1 for ratings > 10 
 
Golden State/Oklahoma City Under 220 (14.9)
Charlotte/Miami Over 186.5 (9.7)
Houston/Memphis Under 190 (1.3)
Orlando/LA Clippers Over 194 (0.4)
 
 
 
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Posted: #102
The comment I have about the GS/OKC under is the spread is 1 so the game would be more likely to go to overtime.
 
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Posted: #103
I also have the GS game Under by a good number so hopefully we can cash that in. I know your numbers are large with the HOU play but I am also on the Under in that game. No T-Mac and Memphis sputters late in the games while HOU doesnt get many Possessions a game. BOL
 
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Posted: #104
Good point Stake ... I have not included that in the system yet, but once I get enough data (or analyze what I have) I want to include a factor for anticipated close games vs blowouts.
 
What's the general concensus???  Do close games lead to more or less points in the 4th.  As Stake points out you have the possility of OT.  Also seems to be more foul shooting in close games and fouls lead to higher scores.  Learned that from the Ref scandal.  Does the D pick up?  And same thing with blowouts ... generally it seems to be reserves with more 3 pt shots, and probably a lower score in the 4th.
 
HeaVin glad to hear we agree on those two games ... did you mean my numbers are not large on the Hou game ???  I bet the Char game last nite and the GS game earlier today.  BOL
 
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Posted: #105
Yeah that is what I meant about Hou
 
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Posted: #106

Man was I wrong about MEM/HOU??? Still on the right side with GS UNDER but was suprised to see Memphis play that well. Good for them, Im a big OJ Mayo fan. Atleast one OJ from SC is doing something positive.

BOL tomorrow, I will be interested to see what we have on the board. Im only going to look at the 10+ with your rating.

By the way you might want to start thinking about a new thread again this one is over 100

 
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Posted: #107
I didn't see the score until almost halftime and it looked like a goner, and sure nuff, it went belly up.  Yea, our Vegas OJ will be moving upstate soon, if not already.  Yep, time for a new thread soon.
 
Well I've quietly sneaked up to 5-1 on 10+ plays the past 3 days.  Went 2-0 tonight.  I've got it tuned up pretty good, if we get a streak of good correlation, it should do well, cuz the correlation is running a little lower then average.
 
Toronto/Cleveland Over 193.5 (13.2)
Orlando/Portland Over 187 (11.4)
Atlanta/Houston Over 194 (3.9)
Milwaukee/Phoenix Over 204.5 (2.3)
Detroit/Washington Over 194.5 (1.8)
New York/Chicago Under 214.5 (1.5)
San Antonio/Dallas (202.1)
LA Lakers/Sacramento (201.9)
Utah/Minnesota (198.0)
 
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Posted: #108
Here's the new updated list ...
 
Toronto/Cleveland Over 193.5 (13.2)
San Antonio/Dallas Over 189.5 (12.6)
Orlando/Portland Over 187 (11.4)
LA Lakers/Sacramento Under 213 (11.1)
Atlanta/Houston Over 194 (3.9)
Milwaukee/Phoenix Over 204.5 (2.3)
Detroit/Washington Over 194.5 (1.8)
New York/Chicago Under 214.5 (1.5)
Utah/Minnesota Over 197 (1)
 
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Posted: #109
Hi Kenyonlv -
 
I've been searching back to trying to find where you explain the rating system but can't seem to find it. What stats go into coming up with your ratings?
 
Thanks and GL!
 
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Posted: #110
Hey Jonny,  The rating is more or less the difference from where the system has the line compared to the book.  I use most of the major stats and do a game by game comparision and get a positive (good) or a negative number (bad) for each team for each stat.  I then compare those numbers for each upcoming game to generate a score for each team.  Add'em together to get a total and subtract that from the line to get the rating.
 
The Tor/Cle total has climbed 2.5 points .. usually a good sign.  GL all.
 
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Posted: #111

Went 3-1 last nite, 8-2 the past 3 days ...

Cha/NO over 187

Min/Den over 204

NY/NJ under 216.5

I like Atl/SA over 189, but it came off the books and scares me, I won't play it.

 
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Posted: #112
[Quote: Originally Posted by kenyonlv]

Cha/NO over 187

Min/Den over 204

NY/NJ under 216.5[Quote]/

Are these your plays tonight? Do you have the ratings?

 
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Posted: #113
Sorry about that I was in the process of posting and I had an unexpected visitor.  Yes, I bet the three games above for tonight.  Here are the rest of the games with the ratings.  I like the 3 above because they were the same with both sets of settings I used.  These picks are with the new settings.  I use new settings about ever other night, so don't be alamed.
 
Cleveland/Philadelphia Over 186.5 (12.9)
Atlanta/San Antonio Over 189 (10.6)
Minnesota/Denver Over 204 (6.3)
Charlotte/New Orleans Over 187 (5.5)
Phoenix/LA Lakers Under 216.5 (5.5)
Memphis/Oklahoma City Over 203 (4.1)
Indiana/Toronto Over 209.5 (3.1)
Milwaukee/Golden State Over 220 (2.4)
New York/New Jersey Under 216.5 (1.2)
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #114
10-4 the past 4 days
 
I am closing this thread, so please post on this thread The Yons NBA Totals (3).
 
Yon
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