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The YONS NBA Totals

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Posted: #51
Thats' right HeaVin ... I see Cle/Mil under 195.5 (8.2) and SA/Hou under 179 (8.0) as the best so far but not quite 9.4 material.  I think I might make some small plays on 5 or 6 of these average games, and see what happens.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Thats' right HeaVin ... I see Cle/Mil under 195.5 (8.2) and SA/Hou under 179 (8.0) as the best so far but not quite 9.4 material.  I think I might make some small plays on 5 or 6 of these average games, and see what happens.

This always gets me in trouble. Ill be pulling for you might take a small play with CLE/MIL cause I think the total may still move. BOL
 
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Posted: #53
Day 11  6-5 (41-37) overall, 0-0 (10-9) hot picks.  I bet the top 6 games tonight and went 4-1-1, took a little bit of the sting of last nite away.  HeaVin hope you collected on Cle/Mil.  One game for tomorrow ...
 
Toronto/LA Lakers Under 206 (10)
Chicago/Philadelphia Under 194 (8.3)
Portland/Detroit Over 187 (1.9)
New Jersey/Phoenix (210)
Houston/Denver (197.9)
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Day 11  6-5 (41-37) overall, 0-0 (10-9) hot picks.  I bet the top 6 games tonight and went 4-1-1, took a little bit of the sting of last nite away.  HeaVin hope you collected on Cle/Mil.  One game for tomorrow ...
 
Toronto/LA Lakers Under 206 (10)
Chicago/Philadelphia Under 194 (8.3)
Portland/Detroit Over 187 (1.9)
New Jersey/Phoenix (210)
Houston/Denver (197.9)


Alright, it's a new day!
Got my Lakers bet in at Under 206 (-108)
Let's tear it apart!
Including NFL of course, have a great Sunday bro! GL to us!!
 
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Posted: #55
I indeed took the CLE/MIL game as the total rose high enough for a play. Very easy win there. 
 
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Posted: #56
....i am not following the NBA O/U anymore Ken...
 
too unpredictable....
 
...when ALL of the top 4 picks over (9.4) lose....
 
I will be following your original NFL posting with the O/U's...betting them all today btw... 
 
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Posted: #57
hey the lakers game is 207.5 what would the under on that play be
 
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Posted: #58
10+1.5 = 11.5
 
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Posted: #59
Take away a couple of first half baskets and that Laker game coulda been a winner.  Just too much in the 1st and 3rd quarters.  Oh well, 976 games are still left.  I went 10-5 in FB, but couldn't squeak out just one more win.
 
Day 12  2-3 (43-40) overall and 0-1 (10-10) hot picks.  I'm not to discouraged ... take away that one bad night and it's still respectable.  Nothing for tomorrow unless they miss that GS line by a mile, which I doubt.
 
Orlando/Boston Under 189.5 (2.4)
Minnesota/Charlotte Under 184 (2.3)
Miami/Golden State Over  (214.9)
 
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Posted: #60
I was thinking about the Laker game tonight but I know this team to well and knew it would be a very close call. They do not play good defense in the 1st halves but score very well, and in the 2nd halves of games they put the throttle on and start making the other team earn their buckets. 

I laid off but still think that you have a solid thing going especially in the NFL O/U and the ATS/ML thing you have. Please keep this system going cause you have nothing to lose and worse case scenario you begin to find a trend and are able to tighten up this thing. 

Looks like the lines are set and nothing eye opening. BOL 
 
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Posted: #61
HeaVin, Yea it didn't make sense to go with the under with the Lakers and you know what it didn't with the "correct" system either.  I'm not one to make excuses, but the past two days of posts have been wrong, I found an error.  I used two wrong columns in a calculation.  It did pick the under, but the spread was only 4.0 not 10.0.  I won't change my record it stands but here are the correct last two days.
 
Golden State /New York, 237.9, Over, 13.4, Win
Cleveland /Milwaukee, 183.4, Under, 11.6, Win
Dallas /Sacramento, 200.3, Under, 6.7, Win
Atlanta /Washington, 194.9, Under, 5.1, Lose
Boston /Charlotte, 174.3, Under, 4.7, Win
San Antonio /Houston, 175.5, Under, 3.5, Lose
Miami /LA Clippers, 191.3, Under, 1.8, Lose
New Jersey /Utah, 210.3, Over, 1.8, Lose
Indiana /Orlando, 204.3, Over, 1.8, Win
Denver /Minnesota, 199.7, Under, 0.8, Lose
Oklahoma City /Memphis, 197.7, Over, 0.8, Win
 
New Jersey /Phoenix, 213.3, Over, 6.3, Win
Chicago /Philadelphia, 188.5, Under, 5.5, Lose
Houston /Denver, 198.2, Over, 5.2, Win
Toronto /LA Lakers, 202, Under, 4, Lose
Portland /Detroit, 185.7, Under, 2.3, Win
 
Woulda been two plays and two winners.  That little ML picker has been a money maker all year.  I was tracking the record up till the last two weeks.  When I get caught up I'll write up a post.  This week it's +385 if the Jags win and +140 if they lose ... I bet Atl and I actually had the 49ers on a ML I bought on Tuesday before I ran the #'s for this week.  It was a good day in the NFL.  Don't lose faith in the NBA ... I'll get it straight and post the revised #'s for tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #62
Not much of a difference, but here are the revised #'s for tomorrow.
 
Minnesota/Charlotte Under 184.5 (3.6)
Orlando/Boston Under 189 (1)
Miami/Golden State Over  (217.0)
 
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Posted: #63
....
 
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Posted: #64

Day 13  1-2 (44-41-1) I mistakenly counted a push as a loss and 0-0 (10-10) hot picks.  I'll try this a few more days and see if I can turn it around.

LA Lakers/Indiana Under 212 (13.5)
Washington/New Jersey Under 209.5 (7.7)
Philadelphia/Chicago Under 194.5 (6.8)
Portland/New York Over 211.5 (5.8)
Detroit/San Antonio Under 183.5 (4.6)
Toronto/Denver (200.2)
Utah/Sacramento (194.4)
LA Clippers/Dallas (192.8)

The system likes the Laker under again .. that will take some balls to bet. LOL

 
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Posted: #65
Kenyonlv, did you use this system last season?  Maybe it just works best at the beginning of the season, say the first 3 weeks.  It takes a few weeks for the lines makers to tighten up and the players to get more comfortable with on another in real game action.  Just a thought.  Keep up the good work!!!!
 
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Posted: #66
Srtzee, No I just started it about 2 weeks ago.  It's actually doing quite well predicting the lines, but not so good determining which OU to pick.  I actually think it will do better as the season progresses, right now there are just to few games and my averages change too much after each game.  I'm hoping after some more time a high scoring or low scoring game doesn't change the numbers so much.  I've still got a lot of stuff to add to start comparing stats like I do in the NFL.  This was just kinda rushed along.  I'll get it there, just need some more time.
 
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Posted: #67
I have problems taking the Lakers Under. Like I said last time is they put up and give a lot of points in the 1st half. The 2nd they pull away and play better D. I hope we can get some more points else where but it is not looking that way. 
 
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Posted: #68
Kenyon, I've been following both your systems for a couple weeks now with about a 50% personal success rate. I should just go with the top plays instead of picking and choosing.
I'm pretty confident in both systems for a successful season, I just need to clarify that I'm reading the ratings the correct way.
 
Basically you use a system to predict the scores of the games and then depending on the line, the difference between your projected score and the line are the ratings?
Ex. The system projects the LA/Ind game tonight will be 198.5 points scored?
Was/NJ 202.5?
 
I do like the ratings, but it seems to confuse some people in regards to when the lines change and how to apply the changes to your ratings. You might want to include the projected number if people are still having a hard time figuring out. (the confusion seems to have gone away lately though)
 
 
Thanks again for all the work!
 
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Posted: #69
HeaVin that certainly was the case last nite and looks the same tonight as well.
 
Renegade,  Thanks for following and your comments.  You should be doing ok in NFL picking and choosing, but the NBA is 50-50 lately no matter which you use.  You are right, I just predict a score and get the diff from the line to get a "rating."  You got the LA/Ind # right but the other is 209.5 - 7.7 = 201.8.  Yes, there has been confusion, I'll try just posting my line and see what happens, like I do when there is no line.  I'll keep working on it ..
 
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Posted: #70
No big deal, just a suggestion since on the NFL thread there were quite a few questions about it and I always just used the line rather then change the rating because it was easier for me to understand that way.
 
I see the NFL is more successful as the Lakers have yet again fooled the system. I went with it based on the assumption that the system couldn't be fooled that many times in a row.
 
Not a big deal though as I am pretty much brand new to the betting scene, I'm just testing the waters out and using a free site to track how these different systems do, so as of now I haven't lost anything anyways. Since I really only folllow the NFL rigorously, I figured I'd be smart to bet on other sports as well. I'm doing the responsible thing I suppose testing systems out and not just jumping in blindly.
 
Thanks for the help and I appreciate all the work you put in to these systems or methods you use. As of right now I've got nothing to lose, so no worries here. I'll be chugging along with you as you make adjustments or whatever!
Thanks again!
 
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Posted: #71
I'm working on version 3.0 and will start posting again when I am done.
 
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Posted: #72
Anyway you can post tonights numbers with the old system! Use it as a tool for my capping!

Thanks for your time
 
BB
 
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Posted: #73
Ok Billy Baroooooo ... I spent absolutly no time on this, it's just the unadjusted old system ... so it'll prob go 11-0 
 
LA Lakers/Philadelphia Under 201 (13.6)
LA Clippers/Houston Under 188 (11.3)
New York/Cleveland Over 216 (10.3)
Chicago/Milwaukee Under 199.5 (10.2)
Portland/Washington Under 192.5 (7.6)
Phoenix/New Orleans Under 195.5 (7.3)
Memphis/Atlanta Under 199 (6.5)
Miami/Utah Over 199 (5.4)
Minnesota/Orlando Over 197 (5.1)
Oklahoma City/Charlotte Over 192 (2.7)
Indiana/Boston Over 200 (1.8)
 
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Posted: #74
Thank you
 
 
BB
 
 
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Posted: #75

As HeaVin suggested I might find some interesting trends.  Most people assume teams play better at home, but not all.  This list is what I see as of today ie subject to change of course.

Home Teams - Play Off and Def better at home

Road Teams - Play both better on the road

Home Off  Road Def Teams - Better Off at home , Def on Road

Home Def Road Off Team - Better Def at home, Off on Road

Bos - Home Team
Chi - Home Team
Ind - Home Team
Mia - Home Team
Phi - Home Team
Por - Home Team
Uth - Home Team
Cha - Home Off Road Def Team
Cle - Home Off Road Def Team
Den - Home Off Road Def Team
Det - Home Off Road Def Team
Gsw - Home Off Road Def Team
LAL - Home Off Road Def Team
NY - Home Off Road Def Team
Orl - Home Off Road Def Team
Tor - Home Off Road Def Team
Atl - Home Def Road Off Team
Hou - Home Def Road Off Team
Mil - Home Def Road Off Team
NO - Home Def Road Off Team
OKC - Home Def Road Off Team
SA - Home Def Road Off Team
Sac - Home Def Road Off Team
Was - Home Def Road Off Team
Dal - Road Team
LAC - Road Team
Mem - Road Team
Min - Road Team
NJ - Road Team
Pho - Road Team

If you see a team you don't agree with my classification feel free to speak up.  What I am looking for to help my system is a "weight" to off and def on road vs at home ... looks like it will be "team specific" instead of a "general" rule.

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