ppg system

C Mich -16 qualifies as a rev system play

Awesome job, just got a question, where do you get the power rating, and or how do you calculate the power rating?

i'm using statfox sportsfeed

looking at nd/pitt, i see the avg power rating of opponents played is 8 in favor of ND, so i deduct 8 from their number.

deduct 8 from pitts number

nd 38/pit 32 = 6 point diff. sorry for the confusion...

thanks for the reply, and the link, but i checked out the link, and couldnt find the power rating.  is it in the matchups or is there a link on the page...thanks in advanced...

okay i scrolled all the way down to the bottom of the page and found the avg power rating of opponents played...thanks...and btw which is better a lower or higher number of power rating...and you subtract the power rating from each other and apply the sum to which team...

The higher the number, the harder that team's schedule has been. I have been adjusting the home line. For Pitt, i subtracted 6 from their total which got me to a pick'em. This was a fade play as ND was on the road AND with a worse ATS record.

the results from the Play ON and Play AGAINST games from this weekend:

tem 26
akr 27 = -1/+4 = PLAY ON AKR +5+ L

ind 19
psu 29.5 = -10.5/-22 = PLAY ON IND +22+ W (3rd week in a row backing ind. psu upset at home, out of contention for conf title)

tex 32
**bay 16 = +16/+25 = PLAY ON BAYLOR +25+ L

tn 21
mis 16 = +5/-3 = PLAY ON TN +3+L

wm 29.5
**em 29.5 = pk/+10 = PLAY ON E.MICH +10+ L

iowa 16
osu 25.5 = -9/-17 = PLAY ON OSU -17 (faded system play) L

ucla 29
wa st +19.5  = +9.5/+18 = PLAY ON WA ST +18+ L

stan 28
usc 33.5 = -5.5/-11 = PLAY ON STAN +12+ W (outright)

fl 26
sc 16 = +10/+15 = PLAY ON SC +16+ W

wash 23
ore st 24 = -1/-11 = play on WASH + 11+ L

 

nd 22
pitt 22 = pk/-7  = PLAY ON PITT -7 (rev) W

unlv 18
af -26 = -8/-17  = PLAY ON AF -17 (rev) W

al 26
ole miss 19 = +7/+12.5 = PLAY ON OLE MISS +13+ L

ut 19
tcu 29 = -10/-17 = PLAY ON TCU -17 (rev) W

nm st 23
haw 32 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON HAW -20 (rev) L

TWEAKED PLAYS = 3-7

FADE PLAYS = 3-2

TOTAL = 6-9

Not very good. It's interesting to note the fade plays cashed, which favor laying chalk with the teams that have better ats records playing at home. This may indicate that it's getting harder to catch a good undervalued dog without some additional considerations.
motivation and look-ahead situations need to be evaluated with all plays.

forgot to add C Mich -16 W



FADE PLAYS = 4-2

Weekday and Noon to 2:00 games

 

CM 27

Ball St 18  +9/+16 = PLAY ON BSU +16

 

Col 21

OK ST 30 = -9/-15.5 = PLAY ON OK ST –15.5 (rev)

 

EM 28

TOL 37 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON TOL –20 (rev)

 

BOISE ST 38

UT ST 26 = +12/+24 = PLAY ON UT ST +24

 

UVA 17

CLEM 32 = -15/-20.5 = PLAY ON CLEMSON –20.5 (rev)

 

MN 22

IOWA 25.5 = -2/-10 = PLAY IOWA –10 (rev)

 

LOU 19

SFL 19 = PK/-12.5 = PLAY ON LOU +13

 

MD 27

FSU 36 = -9/-18.5 = PLAY ON FSU –18.5 (rev)

 

FL INT 17

FL 42.5 = -25.5/-41.5 = PLAY ON FL INT +41.5

 

KENT ST 21

TEM 24.5 = -3.5/-13.5 = PLAY ON TEMPLE –13.5 (rev)

 

MEM 26.5

HOU 39 = -12.5/-23.5 = PLAY ON HOU –23.5 (rev)

 

TCU 35

WYO 16 = +19/+31.5 = PLAY ON WYO +31.5

 

TUL 20.5

UCF 32 = -11.5/-19.5 = PLAY ON UCF –19.5 (rev)

 

 

The weakest play on the board is fl int, as they are on the road with same ats wins as FL, aside from the fact that they don't seem to do anything well. I would rather disqualify this if anything, but it does meet one “play on” criteria. More faded plays than usual.

3:00 - 5:00 games

lsu 21
ole miss 19 = +2/-3.5 = PLAY ON OLE MISS -3.5 (rev)

UAB 24
ECU 29 = -5/-10 = PLAY UAB +11+

AF 27
BYU 26.5 = .5/-11 = PLAY ON AF +11+

FL ATL 27
TROY 36.5 = -9.5/-16.5 = PLAY ON TROY -16.5 (rev)

OR ST 35.5
WASH ST 22 = +13.5/+32.5 = PLAY ON WASH ST +32.5

LA TECH 26
FRESNO 29.5 = -3.5/-11 = PLAY ON FRESNO -11 (rev)

evening games

col st 26.5
nm 27 = -.5/+4.5 = PLAY ON NM +5+

KS 18
TX 38 = -20/-27.5 = PLAY ON TX -27.5 (rev)

NEX 34
NM ST 11.5 = +21.5/ +30 = PLAY ON NM ST +30

CM 27

Ball St 18  +9/+16 = PLAY ON BSU +16

 

Col 21

OK ST 30 = -9/-15.5 = PLAY ON OK ST –15.5 (rev)

 

EM 28

TOL 37 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON TOL –20 (rev)

 

BOISE ST 38

UT ST 26 = +12/+24 = PLAY ON UT ST +24

 

UVA 17

CLEM 32 = -15/-20.5 = PLAY ON CLEMSON –20.5 (rev)

 

MN 22

IOWA 25.5 = -2/-10 = PLAY IOWA –10 (rev)

 

LOU 19

SFL 19 = PK/-12.5 = PLAY ON LOU +13

 

MD 27

FSU 36 = -9/-18.5 = PLAY ON FSU –18.5 (rev)

 

FL INT 17

FL 42.5 = -25.5/-41.5 = PLAY ON FL INT +41.5

 

KENT ST 21

TEM 24.5 = -3.5/-13.5 = PLAY ON TEMPLE –13.5 (rev)

 

MEM 26.5

HOU 39 = -12.5/-23.5 = PLAY ON HOU –23.5 (rev)

 

TCU 35

WYO 16 = +19/+31.5 = PLAY ON WYO +31.5

 

TUL 20.5

UCF 32 = -11.5/-19.5 = PLAY ON UCF –19.5 (rev)

lsu 21
ole miss 19 = +2/-3.5 = PLAY ON OLE MISS -3.5 (rev)

UAB 24
ECU 29 = -5/-10 = PLAY UAB +11+

AF 27
BYU 26.5 = .5/-11 = PLAY ON AF +11+

FL ATL 27
TROY 36.5 = -9.5/-16.5 = PLAY ON TROY -16.5 (rev)

OR ST 35.5
WASH ST 22 = +13.5/+32.5 = PLAY ON WASH ST +32.5

LA TECH 26
FRESNO 29.5 = -3.5/-11 = PLAY ON FRESNO -11 (rev)

col st 26.5
nm 27 = -.5/+4.5 = PLAY ON NM +5+

KS 18
TX 38 = -20/-27.5 = PLAY ON TX -27.5 (rev)

NEX 34
NM ST 11.5 = +21.5/ +30 = PLAY ON NM ST +30

10-12 overall
ppg w/tweaks 3-7
rev fades 7-5

As predicted, the "value" is being squeezed out of these games. At this late state of the season, we really need to pay attention to who wants a result and whose just trying to finish the season.

weekday games

ball st 23
w mich 27.5 = -4.5/-10 = PLAY ON BALL ST 10.5+

rut 24
lou 27 = -3+4.5 = PLAY ON LOU +4.5**

e mich 23.5
ak 32.5  = 9/-17 = PLAY ON AKRON -17 (rev)

al 29
auburn 25 = +4/+10 = PLAY ON AUBURN +10

mem 27
tulsa 33 = -6/-16 = PLAY ON TULSA -16 (rev)

ill 21
cinci 30 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON CINCI -20 (rev)

Yeah Sergio, that is what im seeing also.  There has to be a way to filter that out...

getting more fade plays than value plays know what that means...chalk...chalk and MORE CHALK

Sat NOON to 3:30

ole miss 30
ms st 29 = +1/+8 = PLAY ON MISS ST +8+

nm 16
tcu 38 = -22/-44 = PLAY ON TCU -44 (fade nm)

tul 23
smu 34 = -11/-17.5 = PLAY ON SMU -17.5 (fade tul)

bay 21
tt 30 = -9/-21 = PLAY ON TEX TECH -21 (fade)

fsu 20
fl 33 = -13/-24 = PLAY ON FL -24 (fade)

Late games, wait for some lines or buy hooks where you need them

mtsu 25
la mON 27 = -2/+3.5 = PLAY LA MONROE +4+

bay 21
txt 30 = -9/-20 = PLAY TX TECH -20/FADE BAYLOR

ark 25
lsu 24 = +1/-3.5 = PLAY ON ARK +6

troy 29
la laf 24= +5/+9.5 = PLAY ON LA LAF +11+

uga 25.5
gt 26.5 = -1/-7.5 = PLAY GT -7.5/FADE UGA

rice 25
hou 36 = -11/-29 = PLAY HOU -29.5/FADE RICE

ucla 26.5
usc 23 = +3.5/-13.5 = PLAY ON UCLA +13+

there you go. i would not play them all, but rather use this list to narrow down your plays

have you tracked how this system does with the under/overs?

no - i have with cbb. i might back test this at some point.

 

ball st 23
w mich 27.5 = -4.5/-10 = PLAY ON BALL ST 10.5+

rut 24
lou 27 = -3+4.5 = PLAY ON LOU +4.5**

e mich 23.5
ak 32.5  = 9/-17 = PLAY ON AKRON -17 (rev)

al 29
auburn 25 = +4/+10 = PLAY ON AUBURN +10

mem 27
tulsa 33 = -6/-16 = PLAY ON TULSA -16 (rev)

ill 21
cinci 30 = -9/-20 = PLAY ON CINCI -20 (rev)

ole miss 30
ms st 29 = +1/+8 = PLAY ON MISS ST +8+

nm 16
tcu 38 = -22/-44 = PLAY ON TCU -44 (fade nm)

tul 23
smu 34 = -11/-17.5 = PLAY ON SMU -17.5 (fade tul)


fsu 20
fl 33 = -13/-24 = PLAY ON FL -24 (fade)

mtsu 25
la mON 27 = -2/+3.5 = PLAY LA MONROE +4+

bay 21
txt 30 = -9/-20 = PLAY TX TECH -20/FADE BAYLOR

ark 25
lsu 24 = +1/-3.5 = PLAY ON ARK +6

troy 29
la laf 24= +5/+9.5 = PLAY ON LA LAF +11+

uga 25.5
gt 26.5 = -1/-7.5 = PLAY GT -7.5/FADE UGA

rice 25
hou 36 = -11/-29 = PLAY HOU -29.5/FADE RICE

ucla 26.5
usc 23 = +3.5/-13.5 = PLAY ON UCLA +13+

5-3 tighened plays

2-7 faded plays

 

it was rivalry week, with teams that have bad seasons giving it all to finish their season on a high note against a rival. results like this past week i would call atypical.

 

oh 24

cmu 29 = -5/-12 = PLAY CMU -12/fade oh (ats edge)

fresno 28.5

ill 35 = -6.5/PK = PLAY ILL PK

sjst 19

la tech 30 = -11/-19.5 = PLAY LA TECH -19.5 (fade sjst)

nm st 16

boise 40 = -24/-47 = PLAY ON BOISE ST -47 (fade nm st)

cal 26.5

wash 31= -4.5/+6.5 = PLAY ON WASH +6.5

tx 28

neb 21 = +7/+13.5 = PLAY ON NEB +13

 

College basketball ppg done the same way. Any difference greater than 3 in the power rating of opponents played gets accounted for the second team. So I'm either subtracting or adding from the second team based on their schedule to date, rewarding teams that have stronger resume's and deducting from those with inferior schedules.

the games w/the greatest spreads for Tuesday night

Cal State Northridge +7 (-4.5 my line)
Xavier +6.5 (-5)
WMil +14 (+5.5)
Tenn St +16.5 (+8.5)
Sac +15.5 (+8.5)

As with the football system, all 4 are the road teams. The only ones holding an ATS edge is Cal State Northridge and Sac, so these are the only plays i'll endorse. I won't be fading in the cbb, but for tracking purposes : FADE Tenn St.

Wednesday

plays w/ats adv.

Ky -9(my line)/pk (Vegas)
Indiana St -19/-12
Austin P +2.5/+9
Montana St -14/-21.5
SEMSU -4/+13

best fade

Duquesne

Awesome Sergio, you read my mind about Basketball...is this the first season of hoops your trying this system?  if not how did it fair in the past...im trying to make an excel spreadsheet with the formula...or do you have one already?  lmk,,,thanks in advanced...

Rino - I went 56% last yr, using system plays about 2/3rd of the time. if i were more organized, i'd have better #'s for ya...

3-3-1

1-1 fade plays

 

Friday

Miss St 65

Dep 63 = +2(my line)/+11 = 9 pt diff

Col 69

Col St 72 = -3/+2.5 = 5.5

Oak 67

Mich St 81 = -14/-21.5 = 7.5 Since Oak does not have an ats record and MSU has a 2-6 ats record, its a NO PLAY for me.unless the number climbs from here, then Oak would start looking good.