ppg system

Looking forward to todays plays.

Friday recap

1-0 sides
1-0 totals


SATURDAY NOON TO 5:00 GAMES

N Col 75
Okl 80 = PLAY N COL +15

E KY 69
OH 73 = PLAY E KY +9

AP 67.5
KENT 83 = PLAY AP +23


TOTALS

BG/DET 135 = PLAY OVER 128

EM/GA ST 133 = PLAY OVER 124


FADE

UT CHATTANOOGA (on the road, 1-4 ats)

6:00 on...


uab 70
S Al 59 = PLAY UAB -6

temple 66
sh 62 = PLAY TEMPLE +6 (and ml)

charleston 70
clemson 75 = PLAY CHARLESTON +19

mizzu st 66
st l 59.5 = PLAY MIZZU ST -1

mia-oh 65
wis-m 62 = PLAY MIA-OH +5 (and ml)


TOTALS

UCR/MONTANA 125 = PLAY OVER 118

CR/NM 146 = PLAY UNDER 153

early action

4-2

late action

5-2

 

5-3 sides

4-0 totals 

0-1 fades

9-4 overall. we're just heating up. totals on a killer run. too bad we don't get more of them.

 

SUNDAY

 

ucf 67

uconn 77 = PLAY UCF +19

 

fl int 65

n tx 76 = PLAY FL INT +15

 

ncst 66

wf 69 = PLAY NC ST +9.5

 

hofstra 67

st j 69 = PLAY HOFSTRA +7

update and corrections on Sunday's plays

Hofstra on the road with a losing ats record = FADE HOFSTRA

NC ST on the road with 4-4 ats record = NO PLAY

Fades have been bad, so fade the fade if you wish...

 

could you give me an example how you get the totals calculated?

sure. i add the ppg for sd for L5 (59), away (60) and overall (65) and add the ppg against sfl in the same categories (59+61+57) and divide by 6 = 60 pts for sd. run the same for sfl = 68. totaling 128 for both teams. the line i found was 121.5 = PLAY ON OVER 121.5.

this is today's best/widest differential of the day.

but my ppg numbers are different. where do you get your stats from?

this is what i got for SD:

SD
Overall Offense     63.2
Away Offense       51.5
L5 Offense            59.4
Overall Opponent Against     58.5
Opp Away against       61
Opponent L5 against    57.2

i'm using statfox. not sure who's got the better #'s, but i trust them more. Let me know if you figure out which is better


Sunday recap

2-0 sides
1-0 totals
1-0 fades

clean sweep

i sent you friend request. could you accept it?

done. let me know if you'd be interested in running the #'s a couple of times a week. The schedule gets brutal on tues and wed and saturday's. once the overnight lines go up, these plays can be determined.

MONDAY

utep 74
ok 84 = PLAY OK -3

drex 64
kent 74.5 = PLAY DREX +19

yale 69
prov 78 = PLAY YALE +19

no 63
sm 71 = PLAY NO +16.5


totals

no/sm 134 = PLAY OVER 125.5 (8.5)

mor st/ut st 133.5 = PLAY OVER 127 (6.5)

mont st/cal poly 144 = PLAY OVER 137.5 (6.5)

one fade play tbd...

Question sergio,

Can This System Be Accurate For NBA As Well?  Because If So, I Believe I Figured Out How To Get Some Accurate Results.  Let Me Know.  Thank You

yea, i think it could work in nba also, i just never tried. the basic premise to this system combines relative momentum, home vs away performance and strength of schedule, both are as important in the pro's. feel free to run the numbers here so we can track these as well.

Well, Here Is What I Came Up With In NBA Today:

Bucks 127.78  Pacers 133.71

Jazz 99.3  Magic 99.85

Kings 102.95  Bulls 93.68

Clippers 99.35  Spurs 100.25

Cavs 96.75  Suns 107.48

Thoughts Or Opinions?

based on the widest differentials, i see

ind -6/-1 = 5 pts favoring ind
orl pk/-6 = 6 pts favoring uta
chi +9/-4 = 13 pts = PLAY ON SAC +4
sa -1/-9 = 8 PTS = PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS +9
phx -10/-2 = 8 PTS = PLAY ON PHX -2

not sure if power ratings adjustments are ever that different in the nba as the season goes along. I think its more important in college.

I like Sac Town tonight. we'll see how the other two plays do as well.

So, Your Combining The End Results Of Both Scores And Whatever The Sum Of It Lands In (Out Of The +/-), You'll Either Add Or Subtract It And Base It Off Of The Points Being Higher Than 6 pts. And If So, Would Those Be Considered Plays?

yes - i adjust the home line upward or downward to get my line. differentials of 6 or greater are plays.

checking those totals based on your #'s:

milw 100
ind 98 = no play side or total (check your numbers, make sure your dividing by 6 or 8 if your're including conference games)

6 pts higher favoring the UNDER 210 in Cle/Phx
6.5 pts lower favoring the OVER 193.5 SA/LAC
the others are tighter and seem accurate.

why isn't Drexel/Kentucky not a play for total?

I got Drexel 64 and Kentucky 71.5 which makes 135.7 total and the line was 127.5.

This game was adjusted 3 points for kentucky. I avoid running the totals for games where i have to adjust the line for games where there is a diff of 3 or more in power rating of opp played (not sure how to apply the rating diff). but if i did, my adjusted score was 64-74.5 = 139.5 = which means playing the OVER 127 was a good play. and it's looking good now...

So Sergio, Do You Mind Explaining How You Broke Down My Projection With The Bucks Outweighing The Pacers, Please?

using statfox;

 

milw Off 99+92+102+ ind Def 102+99+105/6=100

ind Off 98+98+102+ milw Def 98+97+97/6=98

MONDAY RECAP

1-3 sides

totals 2-1

 

 

ran the #'s and should post sometime tomorrow

please note, some lines may have moved. if a line goes under 6 pts difference, it's a NO PLAY

 

Marshall 78

UNC 82 = PLAY +14.5+ (10.5 difference)

CSN 71

COL 73 = PLAY CSN +10.5+ (8.5pts)

 SEMSU 63

MEM 73 = PLAY SEMSU +30+ (20pts)

WCAR 66

CLE 74 = PLAY W CAR +15 (7pts)

 

totals

tul/neb 132 = PLAY OVER 122 (10pts)

evansville/ap 143 = PLAY OVER 134 (9pts)

 

still need to run #'s for 3 games: S Miss, Weber St and Utah St

 

Morning Sergio,  Nice 3-0 On The O/U's Yesterday!!!

It Seems Like The System Works Better With The O/U's Than  With The Pointspreads.

yes, o/u's seem to be outperforming the sides. u run nba yet?