plays for wed sept 8
22. tigers (+1.25) $20 to win $25 (danks/bonderman)
23. Indians (+1.35) $20 to win $27 (tomlin/kazmir)
24. Texas (+1.25) $20 to win $25 (holland/Rzepcrynski)
25. Houston (+1.10) $20 to win $22 (myers/wells)
26. Giants (+1.20) $20 to win $24 (zito/hudson)
27. Reds (+1.15) $20 to win $23 (arroyo/cook)
good luck
Thinker
thx, this is going to be a long journey (project)...
Beginning Bankroll Sept 5: $1000
Current Bankroll Sept 9: $1075
Power Rating System: 14-13 (+$75)
breakdown:
MLB: 13-13 (+$55)
CFB: 1-0 (+$20)
couple of notes as we head into sept 9....
This is a 100% Mechanical Power Rating System. It is updated daily. My opinion does not matter in any selection. This thread will succeed or fail based on the NHL and Major League Baseball selections. I am pretty confident of this systems success in those sports.. A (.500) record will do great.
I can adapt this sytem to the NBA and NFL but it will probably not be an all (dog) system. As for college, it will be used sparingly this entire season.
Feel free to drop in the thread anytime, as ill be in and out frequently. I will post the entire football card tomorrow.
Here is the entire card for thursday sept 9
28. Tigers (+1.15) $20 to win $23 (porcello/floyd)
29. Reds (+1.25) $20 to win $25 (wood/hammel)
30. Braves (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (wainwright/jurrjens)
31. Giants (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (cain/garland)
that is the complete card for thursday.... the system favors the saints tonight in the NFL but i wont lay the points (5) or the Chalk on the moneyline. the system also is showing a lean to auburn in college football but my work for college sports is not finished and i will limit the plays severly in college sports this season.
good luck guys..
Thinker
the Power Rating System that i use,,,,, is one that i personally developed.. it is not a Power Ranking that i pulled off a site... what ive developed is something that should hit (50%) (or very close) of all its selections, over a very large number of plays.... im referring to baseball and hockey when i say this..
for baseball my system is split into AL and NL parts... i can combine the rankings for interleague play but otherwise they are separate...
i think it will work for the NFL but may take a few weeks to start clicking... i hope i dont get rocked at the start of the season.
not much more to say...
Thinker
I posed a question earlier today, concerning a Power Rating System that ive been working on for a couple of weeks. I was going back an forth about "flat betting" with it or doing a Labouchere method with it.
I have finally decided to flat bet it for the first month and raise the bets slightly, if im successful.
I want a place to document this system's progress and this looks like a good one.
My goal is to start with a $1000 investment and within 36 months, run it into a $100,000 bankroll. Not adding any money along the way. I believe a 15% return compounded monthly will get me there.
Here is where i begin and by the way this is for Pro-Sports Only, very rarely will a college play be included.
Beginning Balance: $1000 on sept 5, 2010
Here were sundays plays, posted in a thread here at covers.
1. whitesox (+1.35) $20 to win $27
2. twins (+1.15) $20 to win $23
3. royals (+1.10) $20 to win $22
4. indians (+1.80) $20 to win $36
5. pirates (+1.05) $20 to win $21
6. reds (+1.60) $20 to win $32
7. mets (+1.30) $20 to win $26
8. giants (+1.25) $20 to win $25
these plays were posted earlier today and this is where ill start. i was going to use a Labouchere Method but i did not want the risk. I am pretty certain with discipline that this system can get me to my goal.
To hit my first goal (of 36) i need to be at $1150 on Oct 1.
Lets see how it proceeds, feel free to comment along the way.
Thinker
If you believe this will turn that kind of profit, what about wagering your 2% based on your daily balance instead of adjusting when you hit a certain goal? Your bankroll would grow faster and if this you would hit your end goal much sooner.
the Power Rating System that i use,,,,, is one that i personally developed.. it is not a Power Ranking that i pulled off a site... what ive developed is something that should hit (50%) (or very close) of all its selections, over a very large number of plays.... im referring to baseball and hockey when i say this..
for baseball my system is split into AL and NL parts... i can combine the rankings for interleague play but otherwise they are separate...
i think it will work for the NFL but may take a few weeks to start clicking... i hope i dont get rocked at the start of the season.
not much more to say...
Thinker
brookster, that is definately an option... i really just want to see how the first few weeks go... im pretty confident on baseball but the season is winding down. we need to get into the nfl season and its still a month before the NHL drops the puck...
the NHL should be ready from day 1........... i wont feel confident with the NFL until about week 5...
im sure things will work themselves out in a few weeks... but i will consider a kelly, using a daily 2% figure...
Thinker
brookster... for week 1 in the NFL, im only playing the rated dogs.. but for tonight the saints (-2.40) on the moneyline would be the correct play... i am not playing it because i need to start the football slow and im not looking to play every game... i would not touch the college game tonight (either of them)....
Thinker
Beginning Balance on Sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on Sept 10: $1079
Power Rating System: 16-15 (+$79)
breakdown:
MLB: 15-15 (+$59)
CFB: 1-0 (+$20)
couple of notes:
Fridays card for MLB will not be posted until this afternoon, by 4pm cst.
The NFL card for sunday will be posted today also.
Should have trusted my system last night, as it had the saints ML and Aub ML pegged... But i am going to keep it very conservative in college sports (this entire first year) and im only going to be betting the selected NFL dogs for week 1..
If anyone has a question on a particular game, ask away, as ill be glad to comment about what my Power Rating System says..
back later
Thinker
no problem, its a little project for me now but i plan to stay at it... as ive said, im pretty confident in baseball and hockey working out but i need to see how the NFL does this season and college sports are still a work..
Here is the sunday card for week 1 in the NFL
Carolina +7 (-1.20) $12 to win $10
Browns (+1.35) $10 to win $13.50
Broncos (+1.20) $10 to win $12
Seahawks (+1.30) $10 to win $13
Steelers (+1.20) $10 to win $12
Ravens (+1.20) $10 to win $12
those are the 6 Dogs that my system selected for week 1.. i am playing 5 on the ML and Carolina with the points... i am purposely keeping it small in this thread for week 1.... but with success, i will raise the bet amounts as we move forward. i will list the NFL plays again on sunday.
I have 1 early college play for saturday sept 11.
South Florida +16 (-1.10) $11 to win $10
there may be another college play tomorrow, if so, ill list it then..
this thread and system must live and die with baseball and hockey, that is why im going to keep football small, until success is proven...
my goal by oct 1, is still to be at $1150 and ill stay on track with the monthly goals (hopefully)
i have already played 3 MLB games for friday...
TB Rays (+1.20) $20 to win $24 (shields/cecil)
Yanks (+1.30) $20 to win $26 (vasquez/wilson)
Cubs (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (zambrano/bush)
that may or may not be the final card, if there are any additions for friday, they will be added later today, as we get some line movement. the NFL card is final...
Thinker
here is the final card for friday sept 10
32. tb rays (+1.20) $20 to win $24 (shields/cecil)
33. yanks (+1.30) $20 to win $26 (vasquez/wilson)
34. cubs (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (zambrano/bush)
35. braves (+1.15) $20 to win $23 (carpenter/minor)
36. marlins (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (sanabia/lannan)
good luck
Thinker
finally a really good day yesterday: 5-1 (+$90)
Beginning Balance: $1000 on sept 5
Current Balance: $1169 on sept 11
Power Rating System: 21-16 (+$169)
breakdown:
MLB: 20-16 (+$149)
CFB: 1-0 (+$20)
couple of notes:
im listing the entire card for saturday (sept 11) in this post, there will be no additions to the card. starting next week, ill be listing my system's opinions on the college games. not much will be added betting wise, as ill continue to keep the college plays small.
a reminder: the nfl card for sunday is posted above but ill re-post again tomorrow, in the normal daily card.
the first month's goal of $1150 was reached yesterday, in only the 6th day of the thread... that is good but ill continue the grind, if im lucky enough to get to $1250, the bet amounts will be upped to $25 in baseball and hockey....
Here is the entire card for saturday sept 11
38. SFLA +16 (-1.10) $11 to win $10 (this was posted yesterday)
39. TB Rays (+1.20) $20 to win $24 (davis/romero)
40. Angels (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (hernandez/santana)
41. Redsox (+1.15) $20 to win $23 (lackey/anderson)
42. Giants (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (bumgarner/stauffer)
43. dodgers (+1.35) $20 to win $27 (ely/rodriguez)
44. cubs (+1.05) $20 to win $21 (dempster/wolf)
there will not be any additions today. good luck with your college selections today.
Thinker
major internet trouble this morning... sorry for delay but nfl was posted previously..
Beginning Balance on sept 5: $1000
Current Balance on sept 12: $1211
Power Rating System: 25-19 (+$211)
breakdown:
MLB: 24-18 (+$202)
CFB: 1-1 (+$9)
NFL: 0-0 ($0)
here is sundays entire card:
45. browns (+1.35) $10 to win $13.50
46. broncos (+1.20) $10 to win $12
47. Steelers (+1.20) $10 to win $12
48. Carolina +7 (-1.20) $12 to win $10
49. Seattle (+1.30) $10 to win $13
50. TB Rays (+1.35) $20 to win $27 (listed)
51. Yanks (+1.55) $20 to win $31 (listed)
52. Boston (+1.15) $20 to win $23 (listed)
53. Florida (+1.30) $20 to win $26 (listed)
54. dodgers (+1.35) $20 to win $27 (listed)
55. cubs (+1.75) $20 to win $35 (listed)
56. giants (+1.30) $20 to win $26 (listed)
sorry im a little late but it couldnt be helped today..... this is the start of week 2, of rougly 150 weeks... the prize at the end is a $100,000 Bankroll... Just have to stay patient and disciplined.
All plays are 100% mechanical and taken from my Power Rating System that i developed..
Thinker
as i have said, i think the MLB and NHL are good to go.... i do believe the NFL will start to click by week 5.... college sports will be cut very short and i wont look at the NBA for a while..
not a terrible sunday, looks like we did some good damage control. the 9th inning loss by TB stung a little and kept us from another profitable day..
sunday: 5-7 (-$12)
Power Rating System: 30-26 (+$199)
CFB: 1-1 (+$9)
NFL: 2-3 (-$7)
MLB: 27-22 (+$197)
that is an 8 day total.... a very good start but i still have about 35.5 months left on this journey.
nothing on sunday night... back on monday
Thinker
i will be here.... the MLB and NHL systems are going to do great. i honestly believe that by week 5 the NFL will be just as good.
if the MLB and NHL can hang that 50% winning mark, we will all be rich....
we are running at (55.10%) with an average payback of (+1.18) on the winners... with an average of just over 6 plays per day... im talking only about baseball.
Thinker
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