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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    NHL System - Algorithmic

    «First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
    sports_Network
    oilcountry99
    Pandalicious
    ERBATIZ
    BMWUFC
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    «First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 8:02 AM ET #101

    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    3 dogs predicted to win! 
    Home 'dog' Columbus WINS (3-1 over STL), and pays out +245 on the RPL,  vg 'dog' projections that continue to shine with the value of the RPL documented throughout this thread.....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

    3 dogs predicted to win! 
    Home 'dog' Columbus WINS (3-1 over STL), and pays out +245 on the RPL,  vg 'dog' projections that continue to shine with the value of the RPL documented throughout this thread.....
     
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 9:42 AM ET #102

    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    Should have 'squeezed' that trigger, they beat the Bruins 5-4 @+122 ML another recorded 'dog' WIN

    should have, could have, would have,

    the best to you always.....


    Win some, lose some, the nature of the beast.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    Should have 'squeezed' that trigger, they beat the Bruins 5-4 @+122 ML another recorded 'dog' WIN

    should have, could have, would have,

    the best to you always.....


    Win some, lose some, the nature of the beast.
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 1:43 PM ET #103

    VAN (MILLER) @ WPG (PAVELEC)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.71522824
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.883699108
    Home Chance of Victory 45.69373716
    Away Chance of Victory 54.30626284
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.598927349




    WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.583758279
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.382412267
    Home Chance of Victory 45.27769804
    Away Chance of Victory 54.72230196
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.966170546




    CHI (CRAWFORD) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.675528223
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.825757559
    Home Chance of Victory 45.36123086
    Away Chance of Victory 54.63876914
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.501285781
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    VAN (MILLER) @ WPG (PAVELEC)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.71522824
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.883699108
    Home Chance of Victory 45.69373716
    Away Chance of Victory 54.30626284
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.598927349




    WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.583758279
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.382412267
    Home Chance of Victory 45.27769804
    Away Chance of Victory 54.72230196
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.966170546




    CHI (CRAWFORD) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.675528223
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.825757559
    Home Chance of Victory 45.36123086
    Away Chance of Victory 54.63876914
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.501285781
     
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 3:03 PM ET #104

    I like what I see Panda
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    I like what I see Panda
     
    ERBATIZ
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 3:31 PM ET #105

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    BMWUFC
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 7:06 PM ET #106

    WAS vs DET has home goals higher than away goals but the percentage is higher on winning for WAS? Is that based on goals allowed by WAS or a mistake? @panda
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    WAS vs DET has home goals higher than away goals but the percentage is higher on winning for WAS? Is that based on goals allowed by WAS or a mistake? @panda
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2015 - 7:33 PM ET #107

    Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:

    WAS vs DET has home goals higher than away goals but the percentage is higher on winning for WAS? Is that based on goals allowed by WAS or a mistake? @panda

    Not a mistake.

    This discrepancy will occur sometimes but not often.

    The reason for this is that although statistics related to scoring indicate a higher score for Team A trends indicate a victory for Team B.

    The specific trend involved is performance in past 10.

    For example, if LA scores 5 goals a game and OTT scores 4.5 goals a game but LA is 2-8 in its past 10 and OTT is 9-1 a higher goal total would be indicated for LA but a win would be indicated for OTT.

    This can happen but it is relatively rare. In these cases the accurate prediction is the one that states Win % not estimated score.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMWUFC:

    WAS vs DET has home goals higher than away goals but the percentage is higher on winning for WAS? Is that based on goals allowed by WAS or a mistake? @panda

    Not a mistake.

    This discrepancy will occur sometimes but not often.

    The reason for this is that although statistics related to scoring indicate a higher score for Team A trends indicate a victory for Team B.

    The specific trend involved is performance in past 10.

    For example, if LA scores 5 goals a game and OTT scores 4.5 goals a game but LA is 2-8 in its past 10 and OTT is 9-1 a higher goal total would be indicated for LA but a win would be indicated for OTT.

    This can happen but it is relatively rare. In these cases the accurate prediction is the one that states Win % not estimated score.
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 12:21 AM ET #108

    VAN (MILLER) @ WPG (PAVELEC)
    VAN 
    OVER 5.5 




    WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    WAS 
    UNDER 5 




    CHI (CRAWFORD) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    CHI 
    OVER 5.5 
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    VAN (MILLER) @ WPG (PAVELEC)
    VAN 
    OVER 5.5 




    WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    WAS 
    UNDER 5 




    CHI (CRAWFORD) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    CHI 
    OVER 5.5 
     
    WalshyMMA
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 4:09 AM ET #109

    Another great night! 4-2 is great any day of the week!  
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    Another great night! 4-2 is great any day of the week!  
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 4:20 AM ET #110

    Quote Originally Posted by WalshyMMA:

    Another great night! 4-2 is great any day of the week!  

    I'm thankful that your second post here is on my thread. 

    I'm also thankful for your encouragement. I hope I bring you great winnings. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalshyMMA:

    Another great night! 4-2 is great any day of the week!  

    I'm thankful that your second post here is on my thread. 

    I'm also thankful for your encouragement. I hope I bring you great winnings. 
     
    Geedubya88
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 1:02 PM ET #111

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    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 3:38 PM ET #112

    MIN (DUBNYK) @ BOS (GUSTAVSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.892973967
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.917349019
    Home Chance of Victory 50.28049453
    Away Chance of Victory 49.71950547
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.810322986




    SJS (JONES) @ PHI (MASON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.38123411
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.750083185
    Home Chance of Victory 45.28875594
    Away Chance of Victory 54.71124406
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.131317295




    COL (BERRA) @ PITT (FLEURY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.173359066
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.37310962
    Home Chance of Victory 42.49493261
    Away Chance of Victory 57.50506739
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.546468687




    DAL (LEHTONEN) @ WAS (HOLTBY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.703286372
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.678211598
    Home Chance of Victory 56.81593402
    Away Chance of Victory 43.18406598
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.381497971




    AZ (SMITH) @ MTL (CONDON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 3.036029839
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.682834498
    Home Chance of Victory 57.55250266
    Away Chance of Victory 42.44749734
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.718864337
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    MIN (DUBNYK) @ BOS (GUSTAVSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.892973967
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.917349019
    Home Chance of Victory 50.28049453
    Away Chance of Victory 49.71950547
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.810322986




    SJS (JONES) @ PHI (MASON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.38123411
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.750083185
    Home Chance of Victory 45.28875594
    Away Chance of Victory 54.71124406
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.131317295




    COL (BERRA) @ PITT (FLEURY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.173359066
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.37310962
    Home Chance of Victory 42.49493261
    Away Chance of Victory 57.50506739
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.546468687




    DAL (LEHTONEN) @ WAS (HOLTBY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.703286372
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.678211598
    Home Chance of Victory 56.81593402
    Away Chance of Victory 43.18406598
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.381497971




    AZ (SMITH) @ MTL (CONDON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 3.036029839
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.682834498
    Home Chance of Victory 57.55250266
    Away Chance of Victory 42.44749734
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.718864337
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 3:39 PM ET #113

    CBJ (McELHINNEY) @ OTT (ANDERSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.542371692
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.704135565
    Home Chance of Victory 44.48966048
    Away Chance of Victory 55.51033952
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.246507257




    NYR (LUNDQVIST) @ TBL (BISHOP)
    Home Predicted Scoring 1.95737593
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.380180706
    Home Chance of Victory 34.08421066
    Away Chance of Victory 65.91578934
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.337556636




    ANA (ANDERSEN) @ FLA (LUONGO)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.205951679
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.113115191
    Home Chance of Victory 58.22846443
    Away Chance of Victory 41.77153557
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.31906687




    BUF (ULLMARK) @ STL (ALLEN)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.397209336
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.196394308
    Home Chance of Victory 53.53328418
    Away Chance of Victory 46.46671582
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.593603644
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    CBJ (McELHINNEY) @ OTT (ANDERSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.542371692
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.704135565
    Home Chance of Victory 44.48966048
    Away Chance of Victory 55.51033952
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.246507257




    NYR (LUNDQVIST) @ TBL (BISHOP)
    Home Predicted Scoring 1.95737593
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.380180706
    Home Chance of Victory 34.08421066
    Away Chance of Victory 65.91578934
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.337556636




    ANA (ANDERSEN) @ FLA (LUONGO)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.205951679
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.113115191
    Home Chance of Victory 58.22846443
    Away Chance of Victory 41.77153557
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.31906687




    BUF (ULLMARK) @ STL (ALLEN)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.397209336
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.196394308
    Home Chance of Victory 53.53328418
    Away Chance of Victory 46.46671582
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.593603644
     
    iStraddle
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2015 - 6:06 PM ET #114

    great work! its crazy the system thinks Colorado over Pens...i can believe it b/c avs did destroy habs a couple games ago....oh well i'll go with it for a small wager...
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    great work! its crazy the system thinks Colorado over Pens...i can believe it b/c avs did destroy habs a couple games ago....oh well i'll go with it for a small wager...
     
    WonderWeasel
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 4:35 AM ET #115

    Hey Panda love the system so far. Use it for when I'm on the same game, thanks for your hard work!!! You have a Total record for your listed plays so far?
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    Hey Panda love the system so far. Use it for when I'm on the same game, thanks for your hard work!!! You have a Total record for your listed plays so far?
     
    numb3rz
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 6:00 AM ET #116

    Hi Panda, I sent you a PM and Friend request.
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    Hi Panda, I sent you a PM and Friend request.
     
    Novot2
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 12:24 PM ET #117

    Keep up the good work Panda. 
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    Keep up the good work Panda. 
     
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 12:34 PM ET #118

    Panda...you're thread is drawing in the newbies out of the woodwork
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    Panda...you're thread is drawing in the newbies out of the woodwork
     
    oilcountry99
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    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 12:34 PM ET #119

    Panda...you're thread is drawing in the newbies out of the woodwork
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    Panda...you're thread is drawing in the newbies out of the woodwork
     
    Pandalicious
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    Posts: 484
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 3:16 PM ET #120

    TOR (REIMER) @ CAR (WARD)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.173580741
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.634936532
    Home Chance of Victory 48.69296337
    Away Chance of Victory 51.30703663
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.808517273




    NAS (RINNE) @ CBJ (BOBROVSKY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.532877117
    Away Predicted Scoring 3.147687313
    Home Chance of Victory 30.45226386
    Away Chance of Victory 69.54773614
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.68056443




    LAK (ENROTH) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 1.675602552
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.218591674
    Home Chance of Victory 29.31236901
    Away Chance of Victory 70.68763099
    Total Goals Estimated Value 3.894194226




    MTL (PRICE) @ NYI (HALAK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.73190938
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.814798276
    Home Chance of Victory 55.96595353
    Away Chance of Victory 44.03404647
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.546707656




    CHI (DARLING) @ CAL (RAMO)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.747791843
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.836435846
    Home Chance of Victory 47.9230004
    Away Chance of Victory 52.0769996
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.584227689




    NJD (KINKAID) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.826436204
    Away Predicted Scoring 3.113262969
    Home Chance of Victory 39.53225653
    Away Chance of Victory 60.46774347
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.939699173
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    TOR (REIMER) @ CAR (WARD)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.173580741
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.634936532
    Home Chance of Victory 48.69296337
    Away Chance of Victory 51.30703663
    Total Goals Estimated Value 4.808517273




    NAS (RINNE) @ CBJ (BOBROVSKY)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.532877117
    Away Predicted Scoring 3.147687313
    Home Chance of Victory 30.45226386
    Away Chance of Victory 69.54773614
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.68056443




    LAK (ENROTH) @ DET (MRAZEK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 1.675602552
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.218591674
    Home Chance of Victory 29.31236901
    Away Chance of Victory 70.68763099
    Total Goals Estimated Value 3.894194226




    MTL (PRICE) @ NYI (HALAK)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.73190938
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.814798276
    Home Chance of Victory 55.96595353
    Away Chance of Victory 44.03404647
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.546707656




    CHI (DARLING) @ CAL (RAMO)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.747791843
    Away Predicted Scoring 2.836435846
    Home Chance of Victory 47.9230004
    Away Chance of Victory 52.0769996
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.584227689




    NJD (KINKAID) @ EDM (NILSSON)
    Home Predicted Scoring 2.826436204
    Away Predicted Scoring 3.113262969
    Home Chance of Victory 39.53225653
    Away Chance of Victory 60.46774347
    Total Goals Estimated Value 5.939699173
     
    Pandalicious
    Pandalicious
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    Posts: 484
    Posted: Nov. 20, 2015 - 3:20 PM ET #121

    Quote Originally Posted by WonderWeasel:

    Hey Panda love the system so far. Use it for when I'm on the same game, thanks for your hard work!!! You have a Total record for your listed plays so far?

    The short answer to your question is no.

    The long answer to your question is that due to a variety of complications I have not been recording overall record. I do not expect users to bet the system in its entirety blindly each night. There are also too many logistics I would have to track. I.E. its record on games with a 51-55% confidence interval as opposed to 65-70%.

    I personally don't have the time to track it.

    In addition, I myself don't bet each play every night. I have a very strategic system as to how I bet. I use the results of the system as a guideline. I then look for "proofs" if you will, to give me reasons to bet the systems results. For example, if the system says NJD @ EDM is supposed to hit 5.94 goals (over 5.5) I would look at trend analysis. How many of each of their games have gone over recently? How often have they gone over against each other? Are the goalies in net starting goaltenders or backups? If the trends agree with the system you can guarantee that I will bet on it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WonderWeasel:

    Hey Panda love the system so far. Use it for when I'm on the same game, thanks for your hard work!!! You have a Total record for your listed plays so far?

    The short answer to your question is no.

    The long answer to your question is that due to a variety of complications I have not been recording overall record. I do not expect users to bet the system in its entirety blindly each night. There are also too many logistics I would have to track. I.E. its record on games with a 51-55% confidence interval as opposed to 65-70%.

    I personally don't have the time to track it.

    In addition, I myself don't bet each play every night. I have a very strategic system as to how I bet. I use the results of the system as a guideline. I then look for "proofs" if you will, to give me reasons to bet the systems results. For example, if the system says NJD @ EDM is supposed to hit 5.94 goals (over 5.5) I would look at trend analysis. How many of each of their games have gone over recently? How often have they gone over against each other? Are the goalies in net starting goaltenders or backups? If the trends agree with the system you can guarantee that I will bet on it.
     
    sports_Network
    sports_Network
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    Posts: 8426
    Posted: Nov. 22, 2015 - 7:55 AM ET #122

    good answer, and assessment to tracking.

    May I add, tracking is based on the value of a WIN, was it a PL WIN? a RPL WIN? a home dog? a road dog? was the favorite ML WIN above or below -150, -120? look, and react to a stable trend that contains the element connecting value to a win, home wins -vs- road wins, goalie WINS, the options are numerous, and brings excessive value to the forefront, I would recommend that those that are interested in Pandas system, create a spreadsheet to personalize their own individual wagering form, keep in mind this system is a 'tool' with accurate projections, a spreadsheet incorporates, and attaches the' tool' to a handicap of value, (PL, RPL)
    "If the trends agree with the system, you can guarantee that I will bet on it"  absolutely...well said Panda, 
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    good answer, and assessment to tracking.

    May I add, tracking is based on the value of a WIN, was it a PL WIN? a RPL WIN? a home dog? a road dog? was the favorite ML WIN above or below -150, -120? look, and react to a stable trend that contains the element connecting value to a win, home wins -vs- road wins, goalie WINS, the options are numerous, and brings excessive value to the forefront, I would recommend that those that are interested in Pandas system, create a spreadsheet to personalize their own individual wagering form, keep in mind this system is a 'tool' with accurate projections, a spreadsheet incorporates, and attaches the' tool' to a handicap of value, (PL, RPL)
    "If the trends agree with the system, you can guarantee that I will bet on it"  absolutely...well said Panda, 
     
    sports_Network
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    Posts: 8426
    Posted: Nov. 22, 2015 - 8:22 AM ET #123

    Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

    I have created a system in an excel document that has taken me various days. It is a result of the following statistics.

    • Goaltender GAA
    • Goaltender SV %
    • Shots per game
    • Predicted shots taken before a goal will be scored
    • Goal Differentials
    • Goals scored by team in comparison to the NHL average
    • Goals allowed by team in comparison to the NHL average
    • Home win % (if home team)
    • Away win % (if away team)
    • Past 10 record
    Each of these statistics has its own function in the formula. To explain the intricacies of the formula would take hours.

    Essentially it is as follows:

    • Avg SOG's to score a goal is a factor of avg SOG's. Once that number is derived it is manipulated by use of the goaltenders SV % to determine the goals that should be allowed with respect to the goalie vs shots factor.
    • A score is then determined for the amount of goals scored compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a high scoring team. A score below 1 indicates a low scoring team.
    • A score is then determined for the amount of goals allowed compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a team that gives up a lot of goals. A score below 1 indicates a team that gives up few goals.
    • Past 10 games and situational record (I.E. home record for home team, away record for away team) effect the equation at a factor of 10%.
    • Differential is then factored in as well.
    This is a very basic outline of the system, and does not even begin to communicate the amount of work that has been put in, but thus far this season the system has yet to record a losing night. It predicts winning % for each team as well as the total goals in a given game.
    to those who may, or may not have grasped the innovation factor, a re-read is in order, on your behalf, hopefully it will raise your comprehension level of handicapping/wagering on the NHL and give you the winning edge by which you seek...simply put," it works"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

    I have created a system in an excel document that has taken me various days. It is a result of the following statistics.

    • Goaltender GAA
    • Goaltender SV %
    • Shots per game
    • Predicted shots taken before a goal will be scored
    • Goal Differentials
    • Goals scored by team in comparison to the NHL average
    • Goals allowed by team in comparison to the NHL average
    • Home win % (if home team)
    • Away win % (if away team)
    • Past 10 record
    Each of these statistics has its own function in the formula. To explain the intricacies of the formula would take hours.

    Essentially it is as follows:

    • Avg SOG's to score a goal is a factor of avg SOG's. Once that number is derived it is manipulated by use of the goaltenders SV % to determine the goals that should be allowed with respect to the goalie vs shots factor.
    • A score is then determined for the amount of goals scored compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a high scoring team. A score below 1 indicates a low scoring team.
    • A score is then determined for the amount of goals allowed compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a team that gives up a lot of goals. A score below 1 indicates a team that gives up few goals.
    • Past 10 games and situational record (I.E. home record for home team, away record for away team) effect the equation at a factor of 10%.
    • Differential is then factored in as well.
    This is a very basic outline of the system, and does not even begin to communicate the amount of work that has been put in, but thus far this season the system has yet to record a losing night. It predicts winning % for each team as well as the total goals in a given game.
    to those who may, or may not have grasped the innovation factor, a re-read is in order, on your behalf, hopefully it will raise your comprehension level of handicapping/wagering on the NHL and give you the winning edge by which you seek...simply put," it works"
     
    Pandalicious
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    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 484
    Posted: Nov. 23, 2015 - 1:23 AM ET #124

    My apologies for the lack of posts recently. I've found myself in a particularly strenuous bout with food poisoning.
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    My apologies for the lack of posts recently. I've found myself in a particularly strenuous bout with food poisoning.
     
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Nov. 23, 2015 - 6:55 AM ET #125

    Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

    My apologies for the lack of posts recently. I've found myself in a particularly strenuous bout with food poisoning.
    get well.....later
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

    My apologies for the lack of posts recently. I've found myself in a particularly strenuous bout with food poisoning.
    get well.....later
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