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NHL System - Algorithmic

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Posted: #51
VAN was also a dog that won.
 
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Posted: #52

VAN 5 | 3 CLB

bruin95, your absolutely correct, not only did the Canucks hit on the +110 'dog' line, they also capitalised on the [-1.5] (reverse) PL @ +260 (Westgate SuperBook LV) dogs are not only barking in this thread, they're shredding the [-1.5] RPL ....get on the train before regression brings it to an abrupt halt, that's if regression even occurs

 
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Posted: #53
DOGS were out in full effect last night!!! 

BUF RPL
VAN RPL
COL RPL
NYI RPL
TOR ML
ARI ML
DET ML


 
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Posted: #54

oilcountry99

I would have to agree wholeheartedly, 4 RPL hits in one night? along with 3 added 'dogs' never seen that before...ever

 
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Posted: #55
MTL (CONDON) @ PITT (FLEURY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.45098522
Away Predicted Scoring 2.640178434
Home Chance of Victory 43.23901522
Away Chance of Victory 56.76098478
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.091163654




EDM (TALBOT) @ ANA (ANDERSEN)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.642722402
Away Predicted Scoring 2.274906612
Home Chance of Victory 58.07792482
Away Chance of Victory 41.92207518
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.917629013
 
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Posted: #56
Montreal is a dog and predicted to win here. Took them +115 ML and +305  RPL. 

Let's see what happens. 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #57
Montreal also an RPI dog play
NYI and Vancouver were RPI dog plays yesterday too
 
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Posted: #58
NOV 12

COL (BERRA) @ BOS (RASK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.153546263
Away Predicted Scoring 3.198068954
Home Chance of Victory 26.05834963
Away Chance of Victory 73.94165037
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.351615217




STL (ALLEN) @ NYR (LUNDQVIST)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.576652246
Away Predicted Scoring 2.406963
Home Chance of Victory 47.35099976
Away Chance of Victory 52.64900024
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.983615246




WAS (HOLTBY) @ PHI (MASON)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.437807778
Away Predicted Scoring 2.832172998
Home Chance of Victory 43.77843361
Away Chance of Victory 56.22156639
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.269980777




MIN (DUBNYK) @ CAR (WARD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.763686537
Away Predicted Scoring 2.887161135
Home Chance of Victory 56.22597948
Away Chance of Victory 43.77402052
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.650847672




BUF (JOHNSON) @ FLA (LUONGO)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.009030244
Away Predicted Scoring 2.584972638
Home Chance of Victory 56.02726242
Away Chance of Victory 43.97273758
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.594002882
 
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Posted: #59
CAL (RAMO) @ TBL (BISHOP)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.922802092
Away Predicted Scoring 2.322571409
Home Chance of Victory 58.47514697
Away Chance of Victory 41.52485303
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.245373501




VAN (MILLER) @ OTT (HAMMOND)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.699933473
Away Predicted Scoring 2.896852384
Home Chance of Victory 44.20592167
Away Chance of Victory 55.79407833
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.596785857




TOR (REIMER) @ NAS (RINNE)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.611337128
Away Predicted Scoring 2.662031548
Home Chance of Victory 53.78875987
Away Chance of Victory 46.21124013
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.273368676




NJD (SCHNEIDER) @ CHI (CRAWFORD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.70908192
Away Predicted Scoring 2.697145876
Home Chance of Victory 51.03078213
Away Chance of Victory 48.96921787
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.406227796




WPG (PAVELEC) @ DAL (LEHTONEN)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.015496989
Away Predicted Scoring 2.990735446
Home Chance of Victory 47.19225714
Away Chance of Victory 52.80774286
Total Goals Estimated Value 6.006232435
 
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Posted: #60
EDM (NILSSON) @ AZ (SMITH)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.66799778
Away Predicted Scoring 2.88719654
Home Chance of Victory 52.15029972
Away Chance of Victory 47.84970028
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.55519432




NYI (HALAK) @ LAK (ENROTH)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.142853519
Away Predicted Scoring 1.630177219
Home Chance of Victory 63.18158962
Away Chance of Victory 36.81841038
Total Goals Estimated Value 3.773030738
 
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Posted: #61
Dog predictions for tonight - Col, STL, Car, Wpg, 

While Toronto is not predicted to win, a 46% chance at +230 odds looks interesting. 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #62

Both New York and Minnesota are predicted to score more goals  than STL and Car, yet STL and Car have a higher probability of winning. Is there a mistake?

 
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Posted: #63
I'm just seeing pandas picks now. My handicap had COL as well, I am on them it's currently 2-2 in the second.
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Clutch93:

Both New York and Minnesota are predicted to score more goals  than STL and Car, yet STL and Car have a higher probability of winning. Is there a mistake?

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Clutch93:

Both New York and Minnesota are predicted to score more goals  than STL and Car, yet STL and Car have a higher probability of winning. Is there a mistake?


The reason that some of these discrepancies would occur is because predicted scoring is calculated as a result separate of win chance.

The win chance formula includes predicted scoring but also incorporates other factors... Specifically last 10 record and win %.
 
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Posted: #66
thanks for making this thread Pandalicious and your system. i'm new to the betting world. i'm starting with 1k bankroll going to play 2% per unit. Wish me luck 
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

I'm just seeing pandas picks now. My handicap had COL as well, I am on them it's currently 2-2 in the second.
COL +152 ML was an excellent handicap, creating exceptional value, the formulated projection continues to produce 'dogs' with continued value.....congratulations on your WIN, and sharing your system POD
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Dog predictions for tonight - Col, STL, Car, Wpg, 

While Toronto is not predicted to win, a 46% chance at +230 odds looks interesting. 
At a value ratio of 46% attached to a +230 ML does not only "look interesting" it's a very attractive handicap, and as the results have indicate an OT WIN..congratulations on your outstanding dog play, the value on this WIN shines...
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:


The reason that some of these discrepancies would occur is because predicted scoring is calculated as a result separate of win chance.

The win chance formula includes predicted scoring but also incorporates other factors... Specifically last 10 record and win %.
do you have a formulated 'spreadsheet' aka: excel; attached to this system? if so, can you post the link? appreciate your efforts
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

do you have a formulated 'spreadsheet' aka: excel; attached to this system? if so, can you post the link? appreciate your efforts

I would love to but there are two issues. 

1) It has to be updated every time before use. (Currently working on automated update with a user I have met in this thread. 

2) Almost a year ago I sold a copy of the spreadsheet for $1500 and there was an NDA attached to the sale and one of the clauses does not allow me to distribute it freely. 
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by milliwilly:

thanks for making this thread Pandalicious and your system. i'm new to the betting world. i'm starting with 1k bankroll going to play 2% per unit. Wish me luck 

Well let's hope we start you off well.

CBJ (BOBROVSKY) @ PITT (FLEURY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.975292813
Away Predicted Scoring 2.360668839
Home Chance of Victory 55.42770053
Away Chance of Victory 44.57229947
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.335961652




CAL (RAMO) @ WAS (HOLTBY)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.127245292
Away Predicted Scoring 2.387130753
Home Chance of Victory 70.83405165
Away Chance of Victory 29.16594835
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.514376044




SJS (JONES) @ DET (HOWARD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.52120935
Away Predicted Scoring 2.232141819
Home Chance of Victory 53.6689342
Away Chance of Victory 46.3310658
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.753351168




NYI (HALAK) @ ANA (ANDERSEN)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.179616693
Away Predicted Scoring 2.434324228
Home Chance of Victory 40.12638209
Away Chance of Victory 59.87361791
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.613940921
 
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Posted: #72
Great stats w/ Islanders !
 
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Posted: #73
Islanders were another winning dog play,
Nice work!!
 
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Posted: #74
I'm beginning to think that the system is only profitable in betting underdogs.

It is seemingly immensely profitable at doing so.

I believe it is something like 8-2 on predicting ML dogs.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

I'm beginning to think that the system is only profitable in betting underdogs.It is seemingly immensely profitable at doing so.I believe it is something like 8-2 on predicting ML dogs.

Yes, seems to be amazing with dogs thus far !
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