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NHL 2 Team road parlay system

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Posted: #1376
Chaser

Thanks for the data.  I'm pulling my hair our here LOL. Trying to decide on the best method to use in terms of risk/reward.

Your idea's sound valid.  Playing the way you suggest brings another 28.7 units to the bank! 




 
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Posted: #1377

Thursday, Game 5 winner!

Original Bankroll - $740

Current Bankroll - $1,297.20 ($557.20 gain, 75.3% gain on bankroll)

Since posting in 2014-2015 season

Overall 95-1 (+$3,014.99)

  • Game 1  31-65
  • Game 2  18-47
  • Game 3  18-29
  • Game 4  10-19
  • Game 5   3-16
  • Game 6   7-9
  • Game 7   4-5
  • Game 8   4-1
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Posted: #1378
Dan  
 
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Posted: #1379
Oil, beware, please don't chase those individually. You WILL end up in a lot of stressful betting situations and will eventually wipe out your work. It just doesn't seem worth it. At least go back and back test all of Dans seasons in this thread before you do it. 
 
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Posted: #1380
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

Oil, beware, please don't chase those individually. You WILL end up in a lot of stressful betting situations and will eventually wipe out your work. It just doesn't seem worth it. At least go back and back test all of Dans seasons in this thread before you do it. 

The only way I see this (Chasing the Home Dog) failing is if Dan's Road Favorite Parlay goes on an extreme heater!  By that I mean winning 6+ in a row.  I'm not sure the longest winning streak Dan's System has had in the past but I'd be surprised if it's 4 straight.

When the parlay is losing...one of the other 2 bets is winning guaranteeing at least one winner each time a play is made. For this reason I feel the martingale chase would be the way to go....I'm going to give it a shot with a short leash... 

I appreciate your opinion as always SE43. 
 
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Posted: #1381
Oil, I think in the 3 years running this we have had one or two 3 game streaks and several back to back. Never a 4 game streak. 
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Posted: #1382
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Oil, I think in the 3 years running this we have had one or two 3 game streaks and several back to back. Never a 4 game streak. 

Have you done a backtest on chasing the home dogs?
 
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Posted: #1383
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday, Game 5 winner!

Original Bankroll - $740

Current Bankroll - $1,297.20 ($557.20 gain, 75.3% gain on bankroll)

Since posting in 2014-2015 season

Overall 95-1 (+$3,014.99)

  • Game 1  31-65
  • Game 2  18-47
  • Game 3  18-29
  • Game 4  10-19
  • Game 5   3-16
  • Game 6   7-9
  • Game 7   4-5
  • Game 8   4-1
 
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Posted: #1384
Friday, Game 1, Pitt -135 and Chicago -145, $10 to win $19.41
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1385
With regards to playing the system in another way (the thread is really long so I don't know if this has been proposed already). but what if you would play the opposite of the system:

Lets say you have the 2 games with the biggest road faves. 
A (road fav 1)
B (road fav 2)
C (home dog 1)
D (home dog 2)

the games would be: A vs. C & B vs. D
Dan's play would be A+B
So playing the opposite would be : A+D & B+C & C&D
all odds are >3 so as long as Dan does not win (which happens in 66.79% of the cases) playing the opposite gives a profit.

Only thing I am not sure about is which win percentage you need if you play all 3 combinations.

BOL with your system Dan, like it a lot, great work 
 
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Posted: #1386
Good work Dan 
 
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Posted: #1387

Friday, Game 1 winner!

Original Bankroll - $740

Current Bankroll - $1,316.61 ($576.61 gain, 77.9% gain on bankroll)

Since posting in 2014-2015 season

Overall 96-1 (+$3,034.40)

  • Game 1  32-65
  • Game 2  18-47
  • Game 3  18-29
  • Game 4  10-19
  • Game 5   3-16
  • Game 6   7-9
  • Game 7   4-5
  • Game 8   4-1
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1388
Saturday, Game 1: Pitt -155 and SJ -166, $10 to win $16.36
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Posted: #1389
Nice work Dan!

Has anyone considered parlaying both dogs on the puckline and running a labby line for it?
 
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Posted: #1390
Thanks River. There are a lot of ideas floating around on how to exploit the opposite of my parlay. I'm not messing with anything else. We are a little more than a month into the season and have increased the bankroll almost 78%. We are up 57 units. 
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Posted: #1391

78%

 
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Posted: #1392
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thanks River. There are a lot of ideas floating around on how to exploit the opposite of my parlay. I'm not messing with anything else. We are a little more than a month into the season and have increased the bankroll almost 78%. We are up 57 units. 

agreed. at the end of last season i tested playing each individual side of the parlay (the post is probably about 10 pages back). It was profitable both seasons but i would not advise doing it. it is only profitable when the chases are 4 games or less... Below is a table that shows the total profit/loss (in units) over two seasons of tailing the parlay with two individual bets for each side. The left column is how deep the chase went. Looks like i may have missed some of the game 5 wins but nonetheless beyond 4 is definitely profitable

239.18
323.43
41.78
6-17.98
7-4.43
8-4.93


 
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Posted: #1393
Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:


agreed. at the end of last season i tested playing each individual side of the parlay (the post is probably about 10 pages back). It was profitable both seasons but i would not advise doing it. it is only profitable when the chases are 4 games or less... Below is a table that shows the total profit/loss (in units) over two seasons of tailing the parlay with two individual bets for each side. The left column is how deep the chase went. Looks like i may have missed some of the game 5 wins but nonetheless beyond 4 is definitely profitable

239.18
323.43
41.78
6-17.98
7-4.43
8-4.93



SMURPH I'm not totally clear on what your table is stating.  Are you saying you chased the opposite team (HOME DOG) on each side of the parlay?  Did you reset your chases after each parlay won?

Sorry for my ignorance here, I'm just not getting it?  The only way a chase is not profitable is if you stop chasing.
 
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Posted: #1394
SMURPH

or were you just making ML plays on the opposite teams (HOME DOGS)?
 
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Posted: #1395
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

SMURPH

or were you just making ML plays on the opposite teams (HOME DOGS)?

these are ML plays on away favorites
 
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Posted: #1396
Loss Saturday on game 1. NO PLAY SUNDAY.
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Posted: #1397
Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:


these are ML plays on away favorites

 
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Posted: #1398
Monday Game 2, Minn and Chicago both -101, $20 to win $59.21
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #1399
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thanks River. There are a lot of ideas floating around on how to exploit the opposite of my parlay. I'm not messing with anything else. We are a little more than a month into the season and have increased the bankroll almost 78%. We are up 57 units. 

Dan, I did some backtesting and found that a chase of each side of the parlay can get to risky at times for my comfort level, bottom line, Risk is not worth the Reward.

I'll continue to stay the course with the parlay system on it's own.

Keep up the good work! 
 
 
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Posted: #1400
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


Dan, I did some back testing and found that a chase of each side of the parlay can get to risky at times for my comfort level, bottom line, Risk is not worth the Reward.

CLARIFICATION
***I was chasing the opposite of Dan's Parlay selection, so a chase for HOME DOG 1 and a chase for HOME DOG2***

I'll continue to stay the course with the parlay system on it's own.

Keep up the good work! 
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