Posted:
#1351
Looks like kings and caps?
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NHL 2 Team road parlay system
Posted:
#1352
Sorry for the delay, was hoping for some line movement. Wash is one of the teams. Almost everywhere I look Philly is a bigger fave or same as LA. I usually use 5dimes lines which have LA as the bigger fave. So I'm going with Philly for a couple reasons. We are getting some better odds using 5dimes and I thnk it's the better play ayway. LA has a bad road record while Ott is good at home. Anyway..
Game 1, Wash -123 and Phil +100, $10 to win $26.26
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Posted:
#1359
Quote Originally Posted by d_opie:
Anyone else notice that the teams selected for the parlay rarely both lose. Any ideas on how to take advantage of this fact.
Yes, take 'em both individually on the ML/PL equating the value of units using the Sotto system.. Your assessment is on target, after review, I have found it to be a 'rare' occurance when both teams chosen; lose in one night
Anyone else notice that the teams selected for the parlay rarely both lose. Any ideas on how to take advantage of this fact.
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Posted:
#1360
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
Yes, take 'em both individually on the ML/PL equating the value of units using the Sotto system.. Your assessment is on target, after review, I have found it to be a 'rare' occurance when both teams chosen; lose in one night
Yes, take 'em both individually on the ML/PL equating the value of units using the Sotto system.. Your assessment is on target, after review, I have found it to be a 'rare' occurance when both teams chosen; lose in one night
So in essence we'd be running 3 progressions at a time using the same MM as outlined.
1.) 2 best road favourite parlay
2.) home dog team 1
3.) home dog team 2
Seems like a great idea! Anyone have a backtest?
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Posted:
#1362
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
Yes, take 'em both individually on the ML/PL equating the value of units using the Stoffo system.. Your assessment is on target, after review, I have found it to be a 'rare' occurance when both teams chosen; lose in one night
Please excuse the typo error (mis-spelled) should read; "using the (Tony) Stoffo-system" soffo is incorrect
Yes, take 'em both individually on the ML/PL equating the value of units using the Stoffo system.. Your assessment is on target, after review, I have found it to be a 'rare' occurance when both teams chosen; lose in one night
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Posted:
#1363
s_N
In your experience with running the additional 2 progressions mentioned above ie) HOME DOG1 and HOME DOG2. Do the progression values have to be altered seeing as our odds on HOME DOG 1 and HOME DOG 2 will be less than TOP 2 AWAY FAVORITE PARLAY?
Any insight you can provide here will surely help the community increase profits on an already successful strategy applied by Danrules24.
Thanks for your input and advice.
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Posted:
#1364
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:
s_N
when you adjust a synchronized MM system, you no longer are abiding by its origin...an example would be playing 8 games on the PL seeking one WIN while progressively using Stoffo's MM chase system as the nucleus, the system is solid on an eight play forecast
s_N
In your experience with running the additional 2 progressions mentioned above ie) HOME DOG1 and HOME DOG2. Do the progression values have to be altered seeing as our odds on HOME DOG 1 and HOME DOG 2 will be less than TOP 2 AWAY FAVORITE PARLAY?
Any insight you can provide here will surely help the community increase profits on an already successful strategy applied by Danrules24.
Thanks for your input and advice.
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Posted:
#1366
| 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| 110 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| 110 | 15.00 | 16.50 | 1.50 |
| 120 | 25.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 |
| 140 | 40.00 | 56.00 | 1.00 |
| 160 | 60.00 | 96.00 | 1.00 |
| 180 | 90.00 | 162.00 | 7.00 |
| 200 | 125.00 | 250.00 | 5.00 |
In the table above you would require minimum odds at each level of the progression to guarantee a profit. The above is based on a $5 unit and the odds listed are the minimum you would need to make a profit or recover your loss at a bare minimum. This is also betting on Home Dog from Dan's system, 1 team not a parlay of Home Dogs. So you would run 2 lines.
After review this doesn't appear to be the best solution.....
Sorry to clutter the thread Dan...
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Posted:
#1367
| 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| 110 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| 110 | 15.00 | 16.50 | 1.50 |
| 120 | 25.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 |
| 140 | 40.00 | 56.00 | 1.00 |
| 160 | 60.00 | 96.00 | 1.00 |
| 180 | 90.00 | 162.00 | 7.00 |
| 200 | 125.00 | 250.00 | 5.00 |
In the table above you would require minimum odds at each level of the progression to guarantee a profit. The above is based on a $5 unit and the odds listed are the minimum you would need to make a profit or recover your loss at a bare minimum. This is also betting on Home Dog from Dan's system, 1 team not a parlay of Home Dogs. So you would run 2 lines.
After review this doesn't appear to be the best solution.....
Sorry to clutter the thread Dan...
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Posted:
#1368
| 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| 110 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| 110 | 15.00 | 16.50 | 1.50 |
| 120 | 25.00 | 30.00 | 0.00 |
| 140 | 40.00 | 56.00 | 1.00 |
| 160 | 60.00 | 96.00 | 1.00 |
| 180 | 90.00 | 162.00 | 7.00 |
| 200 | 125.00 | 250.00 | 5.00 |
In the table above you would require minimum odds at each level of the progression to guarantee a profit. The above is based on a $5 unit and the odds listed are the minimum you would need to make a profit or recover your loss at a bare minimum. This is also betting on Home Dog from Dan's system, 1 team not a parlay of Home Dogs. So you would run 2 lines.
After review this doesn't appear to be the best solution.....
Sorry to clutter the thread Dan...
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Posted:
#1370
Oil I don't think you can use the 8 game progression that I use for the parlay system, for your idea. It was meant to take advantage of the higher payouts for a parlay. You'd have to modify to fit a single play chase.
I do not know the W/L record of individual games but maybe a labby line on both might work if the win% is high enough. I can maybe do some testing.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
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Posted:
#1371
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
Oil I don't think you can use the 8 game progression that I use for the parlay system, for your idea. It was meant to take advantage of the higher payouts for a parlay. You'd have to modify to fit a single play chase.
I do not know the W/L record of individual games but maybe a labby line on both might work if the win% is high enough. I can maybe do some testing.
I'm looking at options right now, and you're right the 8 game stoffo progression will not work. Could do an 8 game marty but not sure it's worth it, we would be getting +odds however making it more manageable.
There has to be a logical way to capitalize on these plays. Unfortunately I don't feel confident in parlaying the home dogs in parallel to the road favs, this would make some cash if they could hit 1 in 8. Maybe this is an option but use a lower unit value in the progression since our payouts would be much higher. I believe this theory has been tested somewhere in this thread.
Thanks for your input 
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Posted:
#1374
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:
Oil I don't think you can use the 8 game progression that I use for the parlay system, for your idea. It was meant to take advantage of the higher payouts for a parlay. You'd have to modify to fit a single play chase.
I do not know the W/L record of individual games but maybe a labby line on both might work if the win% is high enough. I can maybe do some testing.
Dan,
Year to Date I have:
Game 1: 11W-14L (Road Fav)
Game 2: 13W-12L (Road Fav)
I'm looking at just doing a Chase on each home DOG. Not sure if I want to aim for 1Unit for each home team per each parlay progression...or just run continuous chases. I hate chasing, but I may make an exception.
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Posted:
#1375
Oil (and Dan),
Here are some numbers you may find helpful in your analysis:
Parlaying a fade against the "official plays" has hit 6 times to date (and as you can imagine, they had high yields given the amount of dogs involved).
GM1=2
GM2=1
GM3=1
GM5=1
GM7=1
*another game 7 currently pending
Playing those same fades individually and categorizing them as "stronger dog" (fade against the weaker road fav) and "weaker dog" (fade against the stronger road fav) results in:
Stronger Dog
16-9 (64% win rate)
GM1=10
GM2= 3
GM3=3
Played in a straight marty progression = YTD of +17.7units
Played in a chase as "to win" 1 unit = YTD of +16units
Weaker Dog
11-14 (44% win rate)
GM1= 6
GM2= 2
GM3= 1
GM4= 1 (plus one pending)
GM5= 1
Played in a straight marty progression = YTD of +24.6units
Played in a chase as "to win" 1 unit = YTD of +11units
Personally, I think a straight marty on the stronger dog and a "to win" chase on the weaker is the way to go (at least until the break)...thoughts?
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