Ready to have your mind blown? In sports betting, yield can be the best determining factor in how strong a system is. In essence, it's the amount of money won or lost in comparison to what is wagered, similar to ROI... but for amounts bet instead of invested (where you can't go negative like you can in betting).
So, what's the better system? 2 team parlay on road favorites, or $100 parlays on EVERY road favorite whenever there's 3 or more? The answer... OVERWHELMINGLY (so far, from 2009-2014 tracked) it is the $100 parlay system. Here's the details:
For what I am calling the "Double Parlay Road System", Dan's original idea of taking the strongest two road favorites every night, here's the math using a $140, $280, $420, $700, $1120, $1680, $2520, $3500 betting chase. The overall yield is -28.17%, and the system is up $19,139.38 through 2009-2014. Why is the yield negative? Because the amount risked to win this $19k is SO massive, that the yield is basically telling us that this is not a valuable approach, because a bad year or two can absolutely decimate the system. The amount required to risk, to win, would be considered unacceptable by most professional bettors.
$243,740 risked.
$175,081.69 paid out on winning parlays.
Why is the risked amount greater than the pay out? Because we are ONLY tracking payouts. On winning bets, we don't lose our original wager, we just gain the winnings.
For what I am calling the "Triple or Better Road Favorite Parlay System", you bet $100 and parlay ALL of the road favorites each night together, so long as there are 3 or more teams that meet the criteria. The overall yield? An astounding 17.03% from 2009-2014. The system would be up $11,580.72.
$31,600 risked
$36,980.61 paid out on winning parlays.
Remember, professional bettors consider anything between 4-10% yield to be a VERY strong system. 17% is... absolutely bonkers. It would've only averaged a couple thousand dollars a year or so... But once you're up 10k, it's probably time to double up on the wagers. You could lose 20 consecutive parlay attempts at $200 per play and lose 4k. (20 losses in a row do happen but not very often at all), and if you hit just a few 3 teamers in a row, you're right back to even (this also, seriously happens sometimes, 3 or 4 instances in a row of hitting 3 teamers or higher).
Here's the next two questions...
1) Does the triple or more system stay profitable if I run it through 2019.
2) Would baseball be even better? I remember you saying somewhere that bad teams in baseball lose WAY more often than in hockey.
System Extraordinaire.
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