NHL 2 Team road parlay system

@Danrules24 

@Danrules2424

I had an idea lastnight when I was trying to sleep. I would argue that baseball is harder to win than hockey since so much of baseball is determined by one person (starting pitcher). If starting pitcher is good, you're good but if starting pitcher is off it's problematic. So what if we apply this hockey system strategy but flip it to choosing the two worst teams playing on a day and picking their opponent? Say Baltimore and Pittsburgh are the two worst teams on a day and we parlay their opponents. It's a lot easier to lose in baseball than to win. Just an idea.

The shitty teams in baseball lose A LOT. And go on big losing streaks. Rare for Baltimore to win 2-3 in a row. They usually win 1 and lose 1-3.

Interesting. +25 units is nice. Losing 11 units not nice, but looks promising. 

@BlueStar57

 That is good news blue star what sport are you playing

Are we planning on playing this system this year given the unusual circumstances with the upcoming season?

I'm planning on doing it. 

 The only problem I'm seeing is teams playing the same teams so many times. 

@rayfinkle005

 The schedule would have to be considered unorthodox; regardless, their are still going to be 'Visiting Favorites' available for wagering as the formula prescribes....However, due to the unusual circumstances of play, I would highly recommend holding back for the first month, and observe the results, of the   visiting favorites, the prices, etc. etc.   when you feel comfortable with the winning edge, roll with it

WestgateSuperBookLV

Hey Guys, I'm not planning on playing this system this year. With the unusual variables, just going to take a wait and see approach. 

Also, something happened to my old user profile so I had to create this one. Maybe got deleted when I left the Forum Legends Group.

I might do this for fun. Did the system stay the same over the years as it was on the first post? Strongest two road teams?

Went back and looked over every page. Every.... page.... I see now that at some point the system not only moved to road favorites (no plays if there weren't at least two favorites), but that a slight amount of capping went into the system as well. I'm not a die hard hockey fan, so I'll run with this system and simply take the two strongest road favorites each night (if there are two), and see how it goes. Hopefully I've got it right. BOL this year everyone.

@race444

 Someone once made a Covers discord but the link seems dead. I think we need one brother.. I see you and I both posting in many similar places that utilize systems. I greatly prefer systems as opposed to capping. Pretty clear that capping works for about 1 in a million people in the long run. :)

@arakias

Haha it does only work for like 1 in a million. I mean how do you cap a botched snap on the first play of the game going 20 feet past Big Ben for a Browns TD?

We should make a system discord or telegram or skype. 

@Danrules2424

 Dan is the master at systems. He has this one and he has some MLB ones that he won't share with me!

I forgot NHL started today lol, but if we were playing, the first game in the system lost (TB won, but EDM/COL both lost (they flip flopped on heavier favs).

Tomorrow is VGS and CAR. 

I didn't see two road favorites today. Last I looked there was only one so I didn't play anything. I think I last checked about 6 PM EST

Doh, it's in the title, forgot it's two road favs. There wasn't a play today.

Tomorrow it starts with CAR and BOS.

@race444

 I'm going to play it... I just finished back testing it for 2009. I went VERY literal. Any two road "favorites" meaning any odds that were negative ANYTHING (IE: -101 counted just for this first test). 

My units were 140 at game 1, up to 3500 at game 8.

System was up 14k at one point, then hit two eight game losses in a row and finished -$182.61.

I also took some liberties since I don't know hockey, especially from 2009...

When the system had TWO plays because of a tie, I played them both. Both times this occurred, they both won, so I may have gotten lucky. One of the two instances was a double win on game 6. When I say a tie, I mean that one of the top two road favorites for the day was a tie with another game.

For example: Tampa Bay -144, Carolina -122, Calgary -122. Instead of trying to do research on lines from 10 years ago, I just parlayed both. 

So Tampa Bay + Carolina, and Tampa Bay + Calgary. That kind of thing.

I plan to do every year through 2019 to see how it would've gone, but year 2009... virtually a break even. I could see where it could make good money on any season where it doesn't experience more than 1 game 8 loss.

Unfortunately with the database tool I use, when I search "2009, road, favorite" it shows me any team that their line was negative, and it doesnt show me the opponents line for me to know if there's was maybe equal or also negative.

Thanks for plugging that in. Up $14K is nice, but basically breaking even after a whole season sucks.

I've only been playing this system 1.5 seasons, but according to Dan's records he's only seen an 8 game loss 4 times since 2014, with no season having two (like your 2009 season). I'd like to think with the advancements in technology, analytics and athletes taking better care of themselves (scientific nutrition, sleep, etc) since 2009, that the hockey has gotten better so maybe we can distance our 8 game losses further and further a part. 

@race444

 Well hey, the good news is if thats true, then a double loss season in 2009 being a break even isn't a terribly bad thing :)

Net sum of 2010... one game 8 loss. Total profit of $3646.55 using my aforementioned betting numbers. Was 5k in the hole after the game 8 loss mid season, clawed its way back out and finished strong.

Net sum of 2011... one game 8 loss. Total profit of $5207.04 using my aforementioned betting numbers. This season also had a game 8 loss and was in REALLY dangerous territory afterwards facing another game 8, but the system hit. One thing I'm starting to notice is that it's incredible how many times a season EVERY away favorite hits. You could hit multiple 5 and 6 team parlays each year. I think when I'm done I may go back and calculate what would happen if you threw $100 on each 3 team or higher parlay when there were at least 3 road favorites  per day. You could almost do the same chase system separately just doing that, and you'd have some MONSTER paydays, but of course, much more prone to game 8 losses. Not sure what the best way to capitalize on these days where all 5 or 6 road favorites win would be.

Net sum of 2012... one game 8 loss. Total loss of -$1085.13. Season was shortened due to a lockout and there wasn't enough time to recover from the game 8 loss to get back in the green.

Running total from 2009-2012 = +$7585.85... Not exactly killer for the monstrous wagers we are laying out. But... if we could get a couple years back to back of no game 8 losses, we'd be way up.

Whelp, ask and ye shall receive. System has 0 game 8 losses for the first time since I started tracking (2009+) in the season of 2013-2014. Net profits of $19,392.02.

Total combined profit from 2009-2013 at this point is - $26977.87.

For me personally, I think this is where I'd feel comfortable increasing my wagers the following season by 1.5X.

So, I'll be calculating the 2014-2015 season at steps of:

G1 - 210

G2 - 420

G3 - 630

G4 - 1050

G5 - 1680

G6 - 2520

G7 - 3780

G8 - 5250

This makes a game 8 loss cost $15,540, which we can almost afford two of at this point without coming out of pocket. Taking a break for now. One more, thing a "road favorite" for me is now qualified as -105 or higher. I've come to find that -105 is the magic mark where the opponent will have "worse" odds to win. At -104, both teams were -104... its -105 where this changes, so from 2010-2013 I've restricted my database queries to -105 or higher road favorites.

WOW just wow. Lots of good info there. 3 team road parlay is giving me some ideas... maybe we don't have to up our units so much every loss in the sequence because the winning payouts are bigger so an 8 game loss with a 3 team road parlay isn't as devastating. 

@race444

 Agreed. I was thinking something similar. Even a 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 could have some nice hits to it.

Just mocked up todays 3 team road parlay and it pays out nearly 3x. I'm drooling. Doing loose math in my head, with 3x payouts I think we could handle two 8 game losses per season. Maybe more, but this season is shorter. 

I'm going to plays Dan's 2 team system today and I'm going to play the 3 team (tiny amount).