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NFL O/U at 73.2%

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Posted: #26
8 and 4...not to bad
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Ok, Here's round two on my test ...
 
Saints/Falcons Under 50 (3.6) 
Ravens/Texans Over 42 (3.3) 
Seahawks/Dolphins Under 43 (3.2) 
49ers/Cardinals Over 46 (3.2) 
Bills/Patriots Under 41.5 (2.9) 
Giants/Eagles Under 43.5 (2.4) 
Panthers/Raiders Under 38 (1.9) 
Jaguars/Lions Under 44 (1.4) 
Rams/Jets Over 44.5 (1.2) 
Titans/Bears Over 38.5 (0.8) 
Packers/Vikings Over 45 (0.4) 
Chiefs/Chargers Under 47.5 (0.1) 
Colts/Steelers ? (38.6)
 

Week 9  6-2  75%

Week 10  8-4  67%   YTD 14-6  70%

I bet 12 games this week ... at least I made a little something.  Just using my 5 top rated plays each week would be 8-2 (80%) ... Hope it continues.

 
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Posted: #28
Interesting system, I like to see how it pans out by the end of the season.
 
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Posted: #29
Here are the system picks for week 11 ... I included Thurs game this week.
 
Broncos/Falcons Under 51 (4.5)
Lions/Panthers Under 40 (3.7)
Cowboys/Redskins Under 44.5 (3.6)
Raiders/Dolphins Under 38.5 (3.4)
Chargers/Steelers Under 42.5 (3)
Eagles/Bengals Over 41.5 (3)
Rams/49ers Over 44.5 (2.9)
Texans/Colts Under 50 (2)
Browns/Bills Under 42 (1.5)
Saints/Chiefs Over 50 (1.3)
Titans/Jaguars Under 39.5 (1.2)
Jets/Patriots Over 42 (1.2)
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 48 (0.8)
Vikings/Bucs Under 38.5 (0.4)
Ravens/Giants Over 41.5 (0.1)
Bears/Packers 45 (My Line if Orton plays)
 
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Posted: #30
does your system take into account the weather?????
i've watched your system the past two weeks, liked two of your picks and watched the others(liked over texans and under raiders-last week)
great job, keep it up
 
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Posted: #31
Kenyonlv, would you please share how you make your picks? What's your system about? So we could make it by ourselves.
 
thanks in advanced,
 
Adal
 
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Posted: #32

r8drlife  Thanks. No, I made the picks last nite and did not know about the weather forecasted for Foxborough.  With the line down to 40.5 I still like the over, a wet ball can lead to TO's for either team, in addition to any picks Bretts good for.

Adal, I just use statistical analysis and it is to complicated to explain it enough so others can try it, but the key to it is explained in the first post.  For OU's I mainly look at the scoring stat for each team and compare them for every game played by both teams against who they have played.  I also have a weighted passing and rushing component.  The Jets average 2.2 TO's a game and that adds to the Pats score.  I get a predicted score for both teams, tonight it is 16.9 for Jets and 26.3 for the Pats for a total of 43.2, thus I pick the over.  I don't use this point differential for picking the ATS winner (although I need to check what the record is).  I use a different system for that.

 
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Posted: #33
K,
great call 2nite, liked the pick when i saw it, bet on it online but could not pull the trigger with the local book. your top 5 plays are all under this week-i'll be watchin
 GREAT JOB
 
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Posted: #34
r8drlife, Having the unders absolutely sucks when it comes to watching a game ... but hey, they win roughly 50% of the time.  I bet the same top 5 plus one over ... the Rams/49ers.  Each team has a punter, why not use him to full advantage.   
Introducing the stars for Sunday ...
Michael Koenen
Brett Kern
Craig Hentrich
Adam Podlesh
Drik Johnson
Ryan Plackemeier
Michael Scifres
Mitch Berger
Mathew McBriar
Durant Brooks
 
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Posted: #35
Opps ... the 5 games/punters I chose to bet are not the top 5, but these 5 "under" games ...
Broncos/Falcons
Titans/Jaguars
Cardinals/Seahawks
Chargers/Steelers
Cowboys/Redskins (Got this puppy at 44.5)
Nothing like a good punt .. btw what happened to the "coffin corner" .. is that PU now ... politically uncorrect.
 
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Posted: #36
kenyonlv....what???  now I am confused...
 
What are you betting this Sunday?
 
....thanks
 
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Posted: #37
Sorry for the confusion gasman, here's what happened.  I put my bets in on Tuesday for the 5 teams in my last post (all unders) and Rams/49ers Over, these were the top 6 plays at that point.  Then I tweaked my system a bit and on Thursday I posted all my system plays where the top 6 are not the same as what I bet.  I got the punters right for the 5 under games I bet.  Both versions picked the same O/U's just different in the assigned rating or rank.  I like the new "tweaked" system best, but I will live with the picks I already made.
 
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Posted: #38
so what are the "best" plays for tomorrow...?
 
 
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Posted: #39
Gas ... you will have to determine the best plays for tomorrow based on the lines you can get.  If all your lines are the same as my 11-13 post then the top 5 have done well the past two weeks.  If not, which is most probable, then subtract the diff in lines from the # I have in parenthesis (if your line is better add to the #)  ie Dallas is at 42.5 now, so subtract 2 from my # (3.6-2=1.6) so the Dallas under has moved down the list.
 GL tomorrow
 
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Posted: #40
...post them please
 
 
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Posted: #41
k,
unders suck, but you've been HOT
so, if my local book line goes up or down then you add or subtract from the number next to the play-correct?
 
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Posted: #42

Gas .. they haven't changed, but here they are again.

Quote Originally Posted by kenyonlv:

Here are the system picks for week 11 ... I included Thurs game this week.
 
Broncos/Falcons Under 51 (4.5)
Lions/Panthers Under 40 (3.7)
Cowboys/Redskins Under 44.5 (3.6)
Raiders/Dolphins Under 38.5 (3.4)
Chargers/Steelers Under 42.5 (3)
Eagles/Bengals Over 41.5 (3)
Rams/49ers Over 44.5 (2.9)
Texans/Colts Under 50 (2)
Browns/Bills Under 42 (1.5)
Saints/Chiefs Over 50 (1.3)
Titans/Jaguars Under 39.5 (1.2)
Jets/Patriots Over 42 (1.2)
Cardinals/Seahawks Under 48 (0.8)
Vikings/Bucs Under 38.5 (0.4)
Ravens/Giants Over 41.5 (0.1)
Bears/Packers 45 (My Line if Orton plays)

r8drlife .. Yes, rerank the plays by adding or subracting to the number in parenthesis.  The higher the number the better.  BOL

 
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Posted: #43
just to be sure, the pats game started at o/u 44 in our book, went to 42, so the 1.2 + 2 point drop in o/u became a 3.2 play-right?
 
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Posted: #44
Nooooo, My list had the Pats game at 42 already, so there is no change, woulda stayed at 1.2.  You are looking for a change between my list and your book.  That line actually moved down to 40.5 before kickoff, so if your book offered that you would have added 1.5 to get a 2.7 play.
 
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Posted: #45
K, what if I buy 1/2 or 1 point?
Looks like all your plays w/ 2.8 rating or higher do very well.
 
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Posted: #46
Thats up to you ... I haven't bought points on O/U's
 
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Posted: #47
k,
i get it now 
i compare your original numbers to my day of the game numbers from the local book and add or subtract-koo

 
Prospect
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Posted: #48
if the line moves down, i add to your number
if the line moves up i subtract
 
Prospect
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Posted: #49
nice work kenyon I with ya on all 6 top picks!!!Lets get the . BOL
 
 
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Posted: #50
You are on to something good here. I have been following and just picking a few of your stronger plays and been doing well. BOL
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