I’ve been playing around with my NFL system for a few years now but never tweaked it that much … I only used it to pick SU winners. The basic premise is that it compares the major stats based on the schedule of each team. So if you have high passing yards in say 6 games but low passing in the other 2 and the 6 games were against weak defenses and the other 2 were against good defenses that team would most probably have a negative # in that stat, each team stat is either positive or negative. I update my spreadsheet with the weekly stats and it outputs values which I then compare for each game of the upcoming week.
It takes a couple of weeks to get decent #’s so I have only used in it weeks 3 thru 8 and found that it is 64.7% predicting the O/U in those 85 games. If I only count the games where the system picks the Over it is 73.2%. With the week 3 thru 8 results/lines I used I have the Over winning 47 times and the Under 36 times with 2 pushes, so a just pick the over system is 55.3%. It has picked the Under 44 times and the Over 41 times in those 85 games so it is pretty much balanced now, but explains why if I only use the “over picks” it is at 73.2%.
What I ask is do you think there is any merit in these #’s? I want to start testing it with real money this weekend … should I bet all games and go for the 64.7% or just bet the over picks and try for the 73.2% route? I looked at each week and the worst it has done is +1.6 units and the best is +6.7 units, that's if all games were played. I have not found a way to put “values” on the picks yet … ie 5 star or 10 star kinda stuff, and I’m a little worried if I only pick a few of the games to bet I’ll pick the wrong ones and lose. I always read on here people say only bet a few games, but this seems like a case to bet on all of them … what do you think?
I eventually may have come to that conclusion ...
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